Florida results (user search)
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Author Topic: Florida results  (Read 578 times)
(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31
Eharding
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« on: February 07, 2017, 10:48:35 PM »
« edited: February 07, 2017, 10:50:13 PM by Eharding »

Look at the Florida primary. Trump was an extremely popular figure throughout the state. Here was the map I came up with from the Trump v. Clinton primary vote (remember, primary was closed):


Trump's biggest improvement over Romney in terms of total vote margin in the general election was WWC-heavy Pasco County.

Trump still got slightly fewer votes than HRC during the primary, but that was only due to DINOs unable to vote for him.
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(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31
Eharding
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2017, 10:29:14 PM »

Seems like Trump did a lot better than Romney among "ethnic" whites (e.g., Italians, Eastern Euro, Catholics).  Republicans already maxed out votes among white southern evangelicals... so there was no room for improvement in Texas and the panhandle.. there was room for improvement in those more ethnically diverse counties.  But I think Trump maxed out the white vote both in terms of percentage and turnout.  This isn't a winning long term strategy for Republicans.  They seriously need to figure out how to appeal to non-white voters fast.

-Except Donald Trump improved over Romney both in rural Texas and the rural panhandle. I was kind of surprised by that myself.

Rudy Giuliani may have maxed out the White vote in the 2001 mayoral race. DJT may have maxed out the White vote in Mississippi. Other than that, there's no GOP maxing out of the White vote anywhere in the country.

Again, HRC's coalition is majority non-Hispanic White. If Trump was to pick up a random Democrat, she would most likely be White. There is as of yet zero need for Republicans to do any minority outreach at all. Rather, a posture of immigration restriction and steep taxes on out-of-wedlock births are called for.
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(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31
Eharding
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Posts: 2,934


« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2017, 10:31:40 PM »

Florida's 2016 results should remind everyone that Florida is still a southern state in many ways. At some point the Democrats will max out of Hispanic and college-educated areas. Pinellas county is a good example of a place where conventional wisdom would've said Clinton would win cuz it was suburban/urban, but in reality it's very working class.

My surprise was Virginia Beach, Virginia. How'd Trump win that???

-Virginia beach went for Trump in the primary. It swung, but did not trend, towards Trump.
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