Do the dems have any real chance in 2020?
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  Do the dems have any real chance in 2020?
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Author Topic: Do the dems have any real chance in 2020?  (Read 2693 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: February 08, 2017, 02:52:47 AM »

I know anything can happen but it just feels like no one is in the waiting for 2020 who is the perfect foil to Trump. Booker/Cuomo are hated by the Bernie wing, Warren is just not red meat for Trump, Gillibrand is boring, Gavin will have just been elected governor in 2018, Bullock doesn't have a clear primary path, and Castro isn't running for office in 2018.

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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2017, 03:26:02 AM »

2016 saw an open GOP field and they won. An open field is just what the Democrats need to revitalize the party and bring in new talent and new ideas, coronating one candidate in Hillary Clinton, pushing her through despite the fact she was flawed, was a terrible idea and it turned out terribly,
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2017, 08:49:10 AM »

I don't see why not. Trump is as unpopular an incumbent this far out has ever been. Obviously there is a lot of time until then, but it seems likely that the election will be close.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2017, 09:46:10 AM »

I think Dems would be the odds on favorite to win as of Today.  A lot will happen in next 4 years- so we will see... but 4 years is a long time to disappoint some Trump Voters who were looking to Trump to make everything Great. 

Also- The fact that many didn't vote in 2016 because they assumed Hillary would easily win... will be a pretty strong turnout vehicle for those who oppose Trump in 2020.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2017, 09:48:59 AM »

LOL, right now we have president with a >40% approval rating at the beginning of his term. For sure.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2017, 09:58:35 AM »

Of course, but with how 2016 went, its hard to feel remotely good about any election anymore.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2017, 10:05:52 AM »

If Trump is actually able to implement his "America First" policies, the United States will almost certainly go through a major recession.  So, yes, Trump should be in trouble.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2017, 11:28:42 AM »

I know anything can happen but it just feels like no one is in the waiting for 2020 who is the perfect foil to Trump. Booker/Cuomo are hated by the Bernie wing, Warren is just not red meat for Trump, Gillibrand is boring, Gavin will have just been elected governor in 2018, Bullock doesn't have a clear primary path, and Castro isn't running for office in 2018.

I know anything can happen but it just feels like no one is in the waiting for 2016 who is the perfect foil for Hillary. Jeb! has the wrong last name, Rubio is a first term senator, Trump has no political skill, Walker is extremely polarizing (unlike Hillary who is loved by everyone), republicans will never nominate Carson or Fiorina because of Race/Gender, Paul is a nutty tea partier, Christie and Jindal are very unpopular, Huckabee/Santorum/Pataki/Gilmore are old news, Perry is historically incompetent, no one has heard of Graham/Kasich/Everson, and everyone hates Cruz. It really seems like Democrats will just win by default.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2017, 11:41:57 AM »

Of course not. 2020 is set in stone for Trump, followed by the inevitable Pence in 2024...

What a stupid question.
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2017, 11:48:18 AM »

Yes, I believe we have a chance, but I don't think our odds are as good as a lot of the red avatars on this forum think they are.

Right now, I think we're more likely to lose than win in 2020, but things can change. I think our current odds mostly have to do with the current Democratic bench. It's not good, and all of the potential 2020 candidates being floated around are "meh" in my opinion.

Also, it's pretty hard to unseat an incumbent President.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2017, 11:48:48 AM »

Of course.  Even vs. a popular Trump, they have a CHANCE.  Trump was barely elected, and while he'll enjoy incumbency, he's still polarizing enough to possibly face an upset.  If he's underwater with popularity, I think he'll be a slight underdog.  If he's at Bush levels (not entirely improbable), he could even face this kind of a defeat as a worst case scenario vs. a strong Democrat with a populist message:

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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2017, 12:01:39 PM »

Of course.  Even vs. a popular Trump, they have a CHANCE.  Trump was barely elected, and while he'll enjoy incumbency, he's still polarizing enough to possibly face an upset.  If he's underwater with popularity, I think he'll be a slight underdog.  If he's at Bush levels (not entirely improbable), he could even face this kind of a defeat as a worst case scenario vs. a strong Democrat with a populist message:


This is definitely possible. What we need is a candidate that has swagger and isn't just a Civics nerd. That is why Kerry and Romney lost against controversial to slightly unpopular presidents. When was the last time someone who wasn't new or different won the presidency? HW? But he was just a protege of someone who was new or different. Nixon? Was FDR considered?
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2017, 12:03:39 PM »

Of course.  Even vs. a popular Trump, they have a CHANCE.  Trump was barely elected, and while he'll enjoy incumbency, he's still polarizing enough to possibly face an upset.  If he's underwater with popularity, I think he'll be a slight underdog.  If he's at Bush levels (not entirely improbable), he could even face this kind of a defeat as a worst case scenario vs. a strong Democrat with a populist message:


This is definitely possible. What we need is a candidate that has swagger and isn't just a Civics nerd. That is why Kerry and Romney lost against controversial to slightly unpopular presidents. When was the last time someone who wasn't new or different won the presidency? HW? But he was just a protege of someone who was new or different. Nixon? Was FDR considered?

We have a weak bench. If only Bernie was younger...
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m4567
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2017, 12:49:59 PM »

I think Warren could win. Bernie is a little too old, but who knows.

There's never been four consecutive two-term presidents. I think even a boring candidate could win in 2020 if there's a recession and/or a huge scandal and huge incompetence.

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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2017, 01:02:26 PM »

Probably not. Republicans are basically guaranteed to win at least 272 electoral votes (or 270 in the worst-case scenario).

Really?

I'm interested in seeing what those two maps look like. Which states do you think are guarantees?
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JoshPA
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2017, 03:33:57 PM »

No They dont.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2017, 03:34:30 PM »

As proved in 2016, the lichtman test is not an objective tool because one can use their own personal opinions to make the test say whatever they want it to say.  It really shouldn't even be allowed to be discussed on this site.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2017, 04:29:01 PM »


How do you figure?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2017, 07:25:06 PM »

A greater chance than if Hillary had actually won.
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Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself
omegascarlet
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2017, 01:40:14 PM »

Probably not. Republicans are basically guaranteed to win at least 272 electoral votes (or 270 in the worst-case scenario).

"Democrats are overconfident about 2018"
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2017, 01:43:55 PM »

Probably not. Republicans are basically guaranteed to win at least 272 electoral votes (or 270 in the worst-case scenario).

"Democrats are overconfident about 2018"

Uh... yes they are? Doesn't change the fact that there is an impenetrable red 270/272 freiwal.

Discuss with m^ps.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2017, 01:49:33 PM »

Nope, they might as well just roll over and let the Republicans win for the next two decades at least, since states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Maine are now solid red states, and Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida will never actually trend D.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2017, 01:56:12 PM »

Probably not. Republicans are basically guaranteed to win at least 272 electoral votes (or 270 in the worst-case scenario).

"Democrats are overconfident about 2018"

Uh... yes they are? Doesn't change the fact that there is an impenetrable red 270/272 freiwal.

A trump lover who doesn't know what a fact is. How shocking.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2017, 02:21:27 PM »

WI/MI/PA were each decided by less than a 1% margin, btw. Cant count on them to stay Republican Wink
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2017, 02:30:06 PM »

Probably not. Republicans are basically guaranteed to win at least 272 electoral votes (or 270 in the worst-case scenario).

"Democrats are overconfident about 2018"

Uh... yes they are? Doesn't change the fact that there is an impenetrable red 270/272 freiwal.
I'm guessing you're just trolling, because the path to 270 for Dems in 2020 is much easier to envision than it was for Trump in 2016. FL and AZ alone would be sufficient. As would sweeping the Upper Midwest. If the past month is a slight indicator of things to come, I'd be jumping at the chance to run against Trump in 2020. But honestly if I were the Democratic nominee, I'd just camp out in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan the entirety of the race.

You were the genius poor Hillary needed!
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