NRCC Target Seats
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Author Topic: NRCC Target Seats  (Read 2237 times)
Strudelcutie4427
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« on: February 08, 2017, 10:46:27 AM »
« edited: February 08, 2017, 10:57:49 AM by Singletxguyforfun »

NRCC released its list of target seats today. Thoughts?

AZ-1, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-24, CA-36, CA-52, CO-7, CT-2, CT-5, FL-7, FL-13, IL-17, IA-2, MA-9, MD-6, MI-5, MI-9, MN-1, MN-7, MN-8, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-5, NM-1, NY-3, NY-18, NV-3, NV-4, OH-13, OR-4, OR-5, PA-17, WA-6, WA-10, WI-3
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2017, 10:53:28 AM »
« Edited: February 08, 2017, 11:15:20 AM by smoltchanov »

-CA-36, -CA-52, -CO-7, -CT-2, -CT-5, -MA-9, -MI-9, -NM-1, -WA-6. As a minimum.  Probably - more
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2017, 12:21:22 PM »

Interesting that they listed IL-17 but not IL-10.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2017, 12:55:36 PM »

Interesting that they listed IL-17 but not IL-10.

I thought so too. I wonder if Bob Dold would run again, but the district swung to the dems pretty wildly. For 17, they're probably thinking since it was a trump district with a big working class population, plus Bustos might run for governor leaving the seat empty
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2017, 12:59:17 PM »

I hope they have fun going after Tim Ryan/Joe Schiavoni.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2017, 01:17:37 PM »

I hope they have fun going after Tim Ryan/Joe Schiavoni.

That one is a stretch. Trump did well but Tim Ryan is one of the last of the Working Class Dems so I think he's safe so long as he remains popular
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2017, 01:31:59 PM »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2017, 02:40:45 PM »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.

Yeah I laughed at that too.

Notable seats the NRCC isn't interested in:

-IL-10
-NY-25
-CA-16
-CA-26
-RI-02
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PAK Man
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2017, 02:59:05 PM »

Kind of baffling that IL-10 has been left off yet they're targeting seats in Connecticut and Washington. California 36 is a bit surprising, too, given Ruiz's personal popularity. Other than that, most of the rest make sense to me.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2017, 03:03:41 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2017, 04:10:03 PM by Singletxguyforfun »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.

Yeah I laughed at that too.

Notable seats the NRCC isn't interested in:

-IL-10
-NY-25
-CA-16
-CA-26
-RI-02

Don't know much about the other states but the issue with RI-02 is that half of providence was drawn into it so it's not likely to go barring massive dropping in turn out in the city. If the Republicans win the governorship, a map that trades the rest of providence for Woonsocket and Cumberland would maybe be a toss up. Although RI will probably lose a seat in 2020
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2017, 03:52:45 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2017, 07:16:42 PM by Heisenberg »

Kind of baffling that IL-10 has been left off yet they're targeting seats in Connecticut and Washington. California 36 is a bit surprising, too, given Ruiz's personal popularity. Other than that, most of the rest make sense to me.
It was already D+7, and it swung even further Democrat. Plus, a Republican who could win wouldn't even be too reliable of a vote, it's an expensive market, and a perennial target every two years, so there are better places to go after.

But it's good to have a broad, aggressive list, and then narrow it down later.

Edit: Fixed quotation brackets.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2017, 04:26:20 PM »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.

Yeah I laughed at that too.

Notable seats the NRCC isn't interested in:

-IL-10
-NY-25
-CA-16
-CA-26
-RI-02

IL-10 is probably being written off as a lost cause for this cycle, because Trump getting only 32% there was pretty brutal. CA-26 failed to flip in 2014 with the GOP's best possible candidate, so this is likely to be written off by the NRCC for awhile.
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2017, 04:41:36 PM »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.

Yeah I laughed at that too.

Notable seats the NRCC isn't interested in:

-IL-10
-NY-25
-CA-16
-CA-26
-RI-02

Don't know much about the other states but the issue with RI-02 is that half of providence was drawn into it so it's not likely to go barring massive dropping in turn out in the city. If the Republicans win the governorship, a map that trades the rest of providence for Woonsocket and Cumberland would maybe be a toss up. Although RI will probably lose a seat in 2020

RI is pretty much guaranteed to lose a seat in 2020, which is probably why Republicans aren't targeting RI-02. It's a bad investment unless RI as a whole trends massively to the right which I doubt it will.

Anyway, they seem to be using roughly the same algorithm as the Democrats to decide what seats to contest.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2017, 05:24:21 PM »

Yeah with RI-02, it's got a number of issues:

1) Langevin is a very popular incumbent who is unlikely to retire.
2) Even if you do beat him, and manage to hold it for more than one term, Rhode Island will become an At-Large seat in 2022 and Ciccilline/Whoever is the D incumbent in RI-01 would be the hands on favorite in an incumbent-on-incumbent race.

I honestly do hope the NRCC targets WA-06. I've been wanting to do some campaign work with the local Democratic Party but haven't really felt like it because it's been a Safe D race since forever.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2017, 05:40:40 PM »

CT-2?! CT-5 is one thing, but they have no idea what they're doing if they're actually going to try for the 2nd district.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2017, 07:07:26 PM »

Good luck picking off Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck in a Trump midterm, lol.

Yeah I laughed at that too.

Notable seats the NRCC isn't interested in:

-IL-10
-NY-25
-CA-16
-CA-26
-RI-02

IL-10 is probably being written off as a lost cause for this cycle, because Trump getting only 32% there was pretty brutal. CA-26 failed to flip in 2014 with the GOP's best possible candidate, so this is likely to be written off by the NRCC for awhile.

Yeah, CA-26 isn't a huge surprise. Brownley is a good fit for the district, and will probably hold the seat for as long as she wants.
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Figueira
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2017, 08:08:41 PM »

CT-2?! CT-5 is one thing, but they have no idea what they're doing if they're actually going to try for the 2nd district.

It was pretty close at the presidential level, but Courtney seems like a strong incumbent.
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Donerail
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2017, 08:55:36 PM »

FL-07 and FL-13 aren't happening. Maybe the NRCC throws a little money there, but the RPOF is unlikely to be interested in seriously pursuing those seats. Every dollar of state money that goes there is money that doesn't go to the Senate race (a chance to take out the only statewide D) and the governor's race, as well as holding the row offices and defending Curbelo/IRL. It's also a pretty tough year for the GOP in the State Senate, as even-numbered seats are on the ballot and that class includes a number of competitive seats, including SD-08 in Gainesville, SD-18 in Tampa, and SD-36 and SD-40 in Miami. There's too much to defend and too many better targets to make a serious effort at picking off Dem incumbents in Dem seats.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2017, 09:31:21 PM »

The 7th, the GOP definitely wants to target it. State Sen. David Simmons, who represents much of the area and is termed out next year, is interested, as is a younger Puerto Rican State Rep. Either would be formidable, and the FL GOP definitely wants to defeat Murphy before she becomes a rising star and statewide candidate.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2017, 09:39:57 PM »

Interesting that they listed IL-17 but not IL-10.
Trump actually won the 17th, where I believe Romney lost by double digits. It's full of white union laborers (though it could end up being less so in the future if Caterpillar pulls out of Peoria) and farmers. The minority portion of that district (south side of Peoria) doesn't have that many people in it. It's not surprising that Republicans would target a district that is so demographically friendly to them with their new base. But the voters in this region are not straight-ticket voters, so just because they voted Trump (and Rauner), we can't assume that will ever trickle down ballot, even in a midterm. Still, a solid pickup opportunity.

Trump got crushed in the 10th. It's a rich lakefront suburban district, the kind of place where Trump struggled more than a anywhere else relative to Romney's showing. This would have been an extraordinarily heavy lift in a Trump midterm.
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Donerail
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2017, 12:08:45 AM »

State Sen. David Simmons, who represents much of the area and is termed out next year,is interested,
He is termed out in 2020, but more importantly, he wants to be a lawyer. He's supposedly leaning towards the AG race, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to private practice. "I want to be AG, but I'm also thinking about Congress or staying in the private sector" is not the statement of somebody who wants to run for Congress.

as is a younger Puerto Rican State Rep.
Cortes is 15 years older than Murphy. His connections to the Puerto Rican community are noteworthy, but ultimately this is a seat Clinton won by 7 points with a Democratic candidate who managed to upset a heavily entrenched Republican incumbent with more money than anyone could need. Murphy's formidable in her own right, and unless the GOP is able to draw a bigger name than Bob Cortes I doubt she'll be in serious trouble.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2017, 05:26:34 PM »


Krusty Kuster only won by 15,000 in a presidential year. With the college students not as engaged in Hanover, Plymouth, Keene, Nashua, and Henniker I think she can be dislodged
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2017, 02:28:35 PM »

The NRCC has also released the districts they want to prioritize defending. AKA the seats they are the most worried about.


CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-49 (Issa)
FL-18 (Mast)
MN-02 (Lewis)
NY-19 (Faso)
NY-22 (Tenney)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Mast is a weird pick. Big win in a Trump district.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2017, 02:40:56 PM »

The NRCC has also released the districts they want to prioritize defending. AKA the seats they are the most worried about.


CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-49 (Issa)
FL-18 (Mast)
MN-02 (Lewis)
NY-19 (Faso)
NY-22 (Tenney)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Mast is a weird pick. Big win in a Trump district.
That and Fitzpatrick, they both strike me as incredibly good fits for their districts
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2017, 02:50:47 PM »

The NRCC has also released the districts they want to prioritize defending. AKA the seats they are the most worried about.


CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-49 (Issa)
FL-18 (Mast)
MN-02 (Lewis)
NY-19 (Faso)
NY-22 (Tenney)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
TX-23 (Hurd)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Mast is a weird pick. Big win in a Trump district.
That and Fitzpatrick, they both strike me as incredibly good fits for their districts

And the Bucks Co. GOP machine is very strong.

I'd probably put IRL on that list over either of them.
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