NRCC Target Seats

[Donerail]

FL-07 and FL-13 aren't happening. Maybe the NRCC throws a little money there, but the RPOF is unlikely to be interested in seriously pursuing those seats. Every dollar of state money that goes there is money that doesn't go to the Senate race (a chance to take out the only statewide D) and the governor's race, as well as holding the row offices and defending Curbelo/IRL. It's also a pretty tough year for the GOP in the State Senate, as even-numbered seats are on the ballot and that class includes a number of competitive seats, including SD-08 in Gainesville, SD-18 in Tampa, and SD-36 and SD-40 in Miami. There's too much to defend and too many better targets to make a serious effort at picking off Dem incumbents in Dem seats.

[Donerail]

State Sen. David Simmons, who represents much of the area and is termed out next year,is interested,

He is termed out in 2020, but more importantly, he wants to be a lawyer. He's supposedly leaning towards the AG race, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to private practice. "I want to be AG, but I'm also thinking about Congress or staying in the private sector" is not the statement of somebody who wants to run for Congress.

as is a younger Puerto Rican State Rep.

Cortes is 15 years older than Murphy. His connections to the Puerto Rican community are noteworthy, but ultimately this is a seat Clinton won by 7 points with a Democratic candidate who managed to upset a heavily entrenched Republican incumbent with more money than anyone could need. Murphy's formidable in her own right, and unless the GOP is able to draw a bigger name than Bob Cortes I doubt she'll be in serious trouble.