French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[SPQR]

What is the Alleanza Nazionale (12% of the vote last election) if it's not Fascist? Sure, not as bad as Le Pen and Co., but still...

Fini,Alleanza Nazionale's leader,is as fascist as Sarkozy or Bush might be...
Lewis Trondheim,FI and AN's views are not NEARLY as extremist as Le Pen's or as Lega Nord's.

I think Italy's problem is more their youths base on what I see in some soccer games. Watched a tape of Catania-Palermo...dear God it was like watching a civil war in a third-world country.

And then I had a debate with a Reggina fan that told me it was all instigated by the police and organized by Berlusconi and the police deserved what they got. I take it he was an ultra communist or something, but he definitely, and not in the joking sense, wanted to take a gun and go shoot people in Rome when they banned all games. Then there's the more knowledgeable (and less radical) Italian soccer fans say that's typical of all youths in Italy, they're either hard-left or hard-right with little in between due to the country's malaise, complete lack of leadership and responsibility from anyone in the country (with Berlusconi and Prodi both taking the blame according to them), alongside increasing unemployment. Good thread: http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=474214

After hearing a bunch of Italians talk about Italy (they live there, not New Jersey descendants), and taking into account the whole mafia situation in the South, I'm not so sure if Italy is still a first-world country to be honest. That, and the descriptions from my dad when he had to go to Naples for a couple weeks in spring 2003 before he had to go to Iraq. Naples he said was an absolute dump. I told him over the phone Naples is pretty much the Detroit of Europe.

To be fair, after he got out of Iraq he went to a military base in Sicily, which he absolutely loved (he's from Indiana, and Sicily reminded him a lot of Indiana).

You got two of Italy's problems:violence in soccer and mafia.The violence due to the football games is a few idiot's fault,but I admit it's also a cultural problem,as there are always people going to the stadium hoping to beat someone up. THe Reggina fan you talked with must be insane or somethin',thankfully his views are not everyone's views.
About the South and mafia:in Italy every 2 years or so there is a great political discussion about how to "save" it,some money is given to the southern regions and then everything is kept quiet,politically,until there is some new crisis. It's always been like this and I can't see it change unfortunately.Mafia is too much into politics,especially locally, for something serious to be done against it.I am not saying most politicians are linked with mafia,but Sicily's governor and Berlusconi are known to have been,for example.
And Naples is just like the south:plenty of problems,few solutions.Recently the situation has improved,though.



I am afraid we are a bit off topic.

[Umengus]

Interesting opinion given by Giacometti, the ipsos pollster:

-he sees turnout at 80% (+8% compared to 2002)

-hesitation (40%) is the same than in 2002. Just the fact that the electorate of bayrou is not solid. I add that le pen electorare is very sure.
the last ipsos poll:

Bayrou 17,5% but 58% sure
Le Pen: 14% but 86% sure

-Sarkozy should be first. No sure for the rest. It wil be difficult for Le Pen to break the 20% line but he agrees on the fact that this line will be decisive to pass.

-53% of people (and 1/3 socialists) see the win of Sarkozy. Only 14% Royal and 7% Bayrou.

-only 55% of socialists voters (her primary voters maybe...) would like see Royal elected. 65% of udf voters would like see Bayrou elected. 77% of ump voters would like see Sarkozy elected.

Motivation is for Sarkozy.

[Hash]

Yeah, go Sarkozy!

Are you sure 53% see Sarko elected? I saw one with 59% and another with 67%...

I think the same on Bayrou, I believe pollsters may overestimate him so nobody can be scared of Le Pen pulling off a 21 April 2002 trick.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Go Le Pen! or if not him then Sarkozy.

[Keystone Phil]

After hearing a bunch of Italians talk about Italy (they live there, not New Jersey descendants), and taking into account the whole mafia situation in the South, I'm not so sure if Italy is still a first-world country to be honest. That, and the descriptions from my dad when he had to go to Naples for a couple weeks in spring 2003 before he had to go to Iraq. Naples he said was an absolute dump. I told him over the phone Naples is pretty much the Detroit of Europe.

I don't know if Naples is that bad.    I've been there twice and it was ok. Then again, I stayed around the port the whole time. I guess I'm just going to naturally defend the city because my family is originally from a small village just outside of the city.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think Sicily is a bit more beautiful.    I'll hopefully get to see first hand next year when I go to Italy for the third time.



Back on topic...

I'd love to see another runoff with Le Pen mainly because I fear Royal upsetting Sarkozy. Le Pen is also a lot more entertaining. I was watching an exchange between he and Sarkozy from some French talkshow the other day. It was quite amusing. Le Pen is the definition of a loose cannon.

[HardRCafé]

After hearing a bunch of Italians talk about Italy (they live there, not New Jersey descendants), and taking into account the whole mafia situation in the South, I'm not so sure if Italy is still a first-world country to be honest. That, and the descriptions from my dad when he had to go to Naples for a couple weeks in spring 2003 before he had to go to Iraq. Naples he said was an absolute dump. I told him over the phone Naples is pretty much the Detroit of Europe.

But man, imagine if Detroit had a Capri and an Ischia!

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, go Sarkozy!

Are you sure 53% see Sarko elected? I saw one with 59% and another with 67%...

This poll didn't push leaners at all, obviously.

[Hash]

One week before the election and I predict around 28-30% for Sarkozy, with around 24-25% Royal, Le Pen and Bayrou tied for third. Besancenot is the leading candidate for the 8 other "small candidates"/

[StateBoiler]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6558949.stm

BBC article about Le Pen.

Talks about some of his supporters. Most shocking thing from it: a decent number of Muslims will vote for him.

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6558949.stm

BBC article about Le Pen.

Talks about some of his supporters. Most shocking thing from it: a decent number of Muslims will vote for him.

And the reasons why don't, unfortunately, surprise me.

[Tender Branson]

I predict:

1st round:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 24%
LePen: 19%
Bayrou: 19%
Others: 11%

[Hash]

I predict around the same although I believe Bayrou will be at around 18-17 and Le Pen 20

[Gustaf]

I live in England but I am Italian,and thankfully the fascists don't win seat in our parliament.We got the Lega Nord,but it's losing a lot of its appeal.And there is no way someone like Le Pen would get 15% in Italy.

Given that Italy is the only Western European country which has had fascists take part in governments and probably has the strongest brand of fascism in all of Western Europe I find that quite ironic. Sure, France and Belgium are not far behind, but Italy is one of the worse countries in these respects.

[Verily]

I live in England but I am Italian,and thankfully the fascists don't win seat in our parliament.We got the Lega Nord,but it's losing a lot of its appeal.And there is no way someone like Le Pen would get 15% in Italy.

Given that Italy is the only Western European country which has had fascists take part in governments and probably has the strongest brand of fascism in all of Western Europe I find that quite ironic. Sure, France and Belgium are not far behind, but Italy is one of the worse countries in these respects.

Blaming Italy for its past is not going to get anywhere. Alessandra Mussolini's party and those like it are considered the extreme fringe of Italian politics.

[Keystone Phil]

Just what I was worried about...

Sarkozy slipping towards the end - http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/04/17/europe/EU-POL-France-Election.php

[Gustaf]

I live in England but I am Italian,and thankfully the fascists don't win seat in our parliament.We got the Lega Nord,but it's losing a lot of its appeal.And there is no way someone like Le Pen would get 15% in Italy.

Given that Italy is the only Western European country which has had fascists take part in governments and probably has the strongest brand of fascism in all of Western Europe I find that quite ironic. Sure, France and Belgium are not far behind, but Italy is one of the worse countries in these respects.

Blaming Italy for its past is not going to get anywhere. Alessandra Mussolini's party and those like it are considered the extreme fringe of Italian politics.

Lol, who said anything about the past? I'm talking about the present. And while I wasn't thinking in particular about Alessandra Mussolini either, "considered the extreme fringe" didn't prevent her from beign elected, did it?

[Verily]

I live in England but I am Italian,and thankfully the fascists don't win seat in our parliament.We got the Lega Nord,but it's losing a lot of its appeal.And there is no way someone like Le Pen would get 15% in Italy.

Given that Italy is the only Western European country which has had fascists take part in governments and probably has the strongest brand of fascism in all of Western Europe I find that quite ironic. Sure, France and Belgium are not far behind, but Italy is one of the worse countries in these respects.

Blaming Italy for its past is not going to get anywhere. Alessandra Mussolini's party and those like it are considered the extreme fringe of Italian politics.

Lol, who said anything about the past? I'm talking about the present. And while I wasn't thinking in particular about Alessandra Mussolini either, "considered the extreme fringe" didn't prevent her from beign elected, did it?

She wasn't, at least not after being kicked out Alleanza Nazionale for being too radical.

[Cubby]

Just what I was worried about...

Sarkozy slipping towards the end - http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/04/17/europe/EU-POL-France-Election.php

That article says there are a large number of "Anyone but Sarkozy" voters, that describes me. Either Royal or Bayrou would make a great President.

Le Pen better not make it to second round again. Last time I didn't have much of a problem with Chirac, so it was okay. But Sarkozy is a demagogue Huey Long-type populist who makes me uneasy. There's something bad in his character, I can't quite describe it.

I get the feeling rural French voters think Royal is a liberal soccer-mom type, which probably explains the support for Bayrou, since he's a farmer.

[Hash]

Bayrou a great President? Oh please. If that fruitcake somehow wins I'll go to the French embassy to resign my French nationality because I'll be ashamed of it. If Royal wins, France will become a giant daycare because she talks to people as if they were retarded monkeys. Oh and Bayrou is the same as a sleeping pill.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The French Presidential Election should be a very exciting one, and I'm still not quite shore who I should support. Anyway, I was watching CNN this afternoon and they were profiling the minor candidates. One of them from memory was José Bové (Alter-Globalization Movement). Bové stopped the construction of a McDonalds. And became a folk hero. Don't know his name though, but I think he's polling under less than 2%.

I really hope that LePen dosen't do well. Though LePen is entertaining, we don't want another 2002, where LePen only recieved 16% to Chriac's 82%. We want a close race between Royal and Starkozy!

And if you want to see José Bové and his farmer destroying McDonald's here's the link: Bove destroying McDonalds

[Maastricht]

Bayrou a great President? Oh please. If that fruitcake somehow wins I'll go to the French embassy to resign my French nationality because I'll be ashamed of it. If Royal wins, France will become a giant daycare because she talks to people as if they were retarded monkeys. Oh and Bayrou is the same as a sleeping pill.

You're définitively irremediable. The perfect example of a voter wedged in a yoke with blinkers and which cannot see further that its protected candidate.

[minionofmidas]

Bayrou a great President? Oh please. If that fruitcake somehow wins I'll go to the French embassy to resign my French nationality because I'll be ashamed of it. If Royal wins, France will become a giant daycare because she talks to people as if they were retarded monkeys. Oh and Bayrou is the same as a sleeping pill.

You're définitively irremediable. The perfect example of a voter wedged in a yoke with blinkers and which cannot see further that its protected candidate.

Who will you be voting for?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC mentions a poll saying Sarkozy 29%, Royal 25%, Bayrou 15%, Le Pen 13%

---

A note about coverage here; as soon as the polls close, this thread will be locked and a Results/Analysis thread will be opened. I'll probably then re-open this one in a few days time.

Oh, one more thing. Anyone interested in a prediction contest?

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, one more thing. Anyone interested in a prediction contest?

First Round

Sarkozy - 30%
Royal - 27%
Le Pen - 18%
Bayrou - 16%
Others - 9%

[Keystone Phil]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?