French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Tender Branson]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

[Keystone Phil]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

[Tender Branson]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

Mainland France:

Open - 8am local time, Sunday
Close - 6pm smaller towns, 8pm bigger cities

Oversea Dept.:

Don´t know, I just know they start voting on Saturday.

[Umengus]

BBC mentions a poll saying Sarkozy 29%, Royal 25%, Bayrou 15%, Le Pen 13%

---

A note about coverage here; as soon as the polls close, this thread will be locked and a Results/Analysis thread will be opened. I'll probably then re-open this one in a few days time.

Oh, one more thing. Anyone interested in a prediction contest?

First exit polls will be given at local 6 pm. it will be internet rumors.
First good exits poll at 7 Pm on belgian tv or suisse tv. French channels can not give exit polls before polls stations closed (8 pm).

Last polls:

Ipsos 17-18/04

Sarkozy: 30% (+0,5)
Royal: 23,5% (-1)
Bayrou: 18,5% (=)
Le Pen: 13% (-0,5)

Sofres 16-17/04

Sarkozy: 28,5% (-1,5)
Royal: 25% (-1)
Bayrou: 19% (+2)
Le Pen: 14% (+2)

Bva 16-17/04

Sarkozy: 29% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+1)
Bayrou: 15% (-3)
Le Pen: 13% (-1)

Csa 16/04

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: 15,5% (+0,5)

Ifop 12-13/04

Sarkozy: 28% (-1)
Royal: 22,5% (-1,5)
Bayrou: 19% (+1)
Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Friday, the last polls of the campaign for the first turn.

[Keystone Phil]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

Mainland France:

Open - 8am local time, Sunday
Close - 6pm smaller towns, 8pm bigger cities

Oversea Dept.:

Don´t know, I just know they start voting on Saturday.

Ok so someone please explain why this thread says April 20, 2007.

[Umengus]

I don't change my prediction:

Sarkozy: 25%
Royal: 21%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 15%

Larger predictions:

Sarkozy: 25-27
Royal: 21-23
Le Pen: 18-20
Bayrou: 15-17

Very good turnout (77%)

[Umengus]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

Mainland France:

Open - 8am local time, Sunday
Close - 6pm smaller towns, 8pm bigger cities

Oversea Dept.:

Don´t know, I just know they start voting on Saturday.

Ok so someone please explain why this thread says April 20, 2007.

my bad... 22 april of course but this thread is old.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I can see this bit...fine woman becoming a problem if elected...





I am most certainly not a fan of France but I, as an American, have quite a bit of interest in who wins this thing. I think it's about time we had a friend in France.

[Umengus]

latest polls of the campaign before the 1 turn.

Sofres poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 28% (-0,5)
Royal: 24% (-1)
Bayrou: 19,5% (+0,5)
Le Pen: 14% (=)

Besancenot: 5% (+1,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
Laguiller: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1,5% (+0,5)
Nihous: 1,5% (=)
De Villiers: 1,5% (=)
Voynet: 1% (-0,5)
Schivardi: 0,5%

extreme left: 11% (13% in 2002)
Le Pen+ Sarkozy: 42%

Csa poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 27% (=)
Royal: 26% (+1)
Bayrou: 17% (-2)
Le Pen: 16% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 5% (+1)
Bové: 3% (+1,5)
Buffet: 1,5%
Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 1% (=)
De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)
Nihous: 1% (-0,5)

extreme left: 11%
Le Pen+ Sarkozy: 43%

Ipsos poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 30% (=)
Royal: 23% (-0,5)
Bayrou: 18% (-0,5)
Le Pen: 13% (=)

Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
De Villiers: 2,5% (+0,5)
Nihous: 2% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Laguiller: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1,5% (+0,5)
Schivardi: 0,5% (=)

extreme left: 10%
Le Pen+Sarkozy: 43%

Ifop poll (17-19/04)

Sarkozy: 28% (=)
Royal: 22,5% (=)
Bayrou: 20% (+1)
Le Pen: 13% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 4% (=)
Buffet: 3% (=)
De Villiers: 2,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Nihous: 1,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 1,5% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Schivardi: 0,5% (=)

extreme left: 11%
Le Pen+Sarkozy: 41%

My comment: Besancenot's surge is not a surprise when you know that extreme left has 5 candidates(/12) and the time at tv, radios,... is equal between the 12. i'm just suprised by the fact that laguiller is so low: it's her sixth campaign and in 2002, she did better than besancenot (5%). But all polls say the same about her then...

Interesting also will be the turnout: the sarkozy electorate seems to have greater motivation than the royal electorate.

And don't forget that the solidity of the Bayrou vote is weak, but it's the "useful vote" to beat Sarkozy (say polls).

[minionofmidas]

Royal 25%
Sarkozy 22%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 17%

This may be way off, but I have my reasons for thinking that a-way.
Actually, I wouldn't rule out Le Pen pipping Sarkozy for second place.

[Defarge]

Does anyone know any TV channels that we Americans will be able to watch the results on?

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone know any TV channels that we Americans will be able to watch the results on?

The C-SPANs might cover some of it Sunday. I think we're going to be stuck following the results online. Anyone know of any French websites that would be helpful with results as they come in? Hopefully, some French TV stations have coverage streaming online.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Royal 25%
Sarkozy 22%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 17%

This may be way off, but I have my reasons for thinking that a-way.
Actually, I wouldn't rule out Le Pen pipping Sarkozy for second place.

Sarkozy                         28
Royal                             24
Bayrou                          18
LePen                            15

[Verily]

Optimism has paid off before.

Sarkozy: 25
Bayrou: 22
Royal: 22
Le Pen: 20

[minionofmidas]

Royal 25%
Sarkozy 22%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 17%

This may be way off, but I have my reasons for thinking that a-way.
Actually, I wouldn't rule out Le Pen pipping Sarkozy for second place.

Sarkozy                         28
Royal                             24
Bayrou                          18
LePen                            15

Note the Sarkozy-Le Pen correlation here, everybody.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's extend this a little further; predict the best Region and best Department for each of the major candidates (or for all the candidates if thee liketh).

[Gustaf]

Let's extend this a little further; predict the best Region and best Department for each of the major candidates (or for all the candidates if thee liketh).

Big talk from someone who hasn't even posted a general prediction yet!

As for me: Sarkozy: 24%
                 Royal:     24%           
                 Le Pen:   19%
                 Bayrou:   16%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Big talk from someone who hasn't even posted a general prediction yet!

I'm in about three minds over this actually...

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone know any TV channels that we Americans will be able to watch the results on?

If it all comes unstuck, I can happily assist.

Would you like English language coverage:

France 24: Live Coverage from 6.00pm BST (7.00pm CET)
CNN International: Live Coverage from 7.00pm BST (8.00pm CET)
if so, go to www.france24.com

or would you like French language

TV5 Monde: Live Coverage from 6.20pm BST (7.20pm CET)

I will be recording the France 24 Coverage (which ends at 10.00pm BST) and then swapping to TV5 Monde and if anyone not able to get the coverage will happily transfer it to a DVD and post it (for a £1 nominal fee and whatever the postage is)

[Hash]

Sarkozy 30%
Royal 23%
Le Pen 20%
Bayrou 16 or 17%

[Cubby]

Sarkozy   29%
Royal       25%
Bayrou     18%
Le Pen     18%


I've also changed my mind a bit about Sarkozy. As I've said all along, for economic reasons, France should elect him. But I don't like him personally due to other issues. So perhaps my negative views should take a back seat to France's long term interests. However, I have a feeling that if he's elected, there will be lots of strikes and protests in the near future b/c his reforms won't be popular with everyone.

I haven't heard Royal give any speeches, so I don't understand this "talking to us like we're kids" thing that keeps being mentioned. I would vote for Royal based on social issues.

And I hope I speak for all of us when I say that I hope Le Pen doesn't make it to the second round this time.

[Hash]

She speaks as slow as a turtle and (she's good in acting I can say) articulates every sound. It's in her way of speech that I find she speaks to people as if they were kids.

[Tender Branson]

She speaks as slow as a turtle and (she's good in acting I can say) articulates every sound. It's in her way of speech that I find she speaks to people as if they were kids.

       

[Umengus]

Sorry but the latest polls were not the latest polls. Still polls with friday.

Ipsos 19-20/04

Sarkozy: 30% (=)
Royal: 23,5% (+0,5)
Bayrou: 17% (-1)
Le Pen: 13,5% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 4,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
De Villiers: 2% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 2% (+0,5)
Nihous: 2% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1% (-0,5)

Refuse to say: 14%

CSA poll (20/04)

Sarkozy: 26,5% (-0,5)
Royal: 25,5% (-0,5)
Le Pen: 16,5% (+0,5)
Bayrou: 16% (-1)

Besancenot: 5% (=)
Buffet: 2,5 (+1)
Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Bové: 1,5% (-1,5)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)
De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)
Schivardi: <0,5%

turnout: 81% (=)

My opinion is that ipsos overestimates the sarkozy vote and csa pollster said that, for him, some voters say to vote sarokozy but in fact they will vote for le Pen.

Sunday at 8 pm, some pollsters will be not beautiful to see...(like in 2002)

[Umengus]

LH2 IFOP CSA SOFRES BVA IPSOS

Nicolas Sarkozy 27 28 26,5 28 29 30

Ségolène Royal 23 22,5 25,5 24 26 23,5

François Bayrou 19 20 16 19,5 17 17

Jean-Marie Le Pen 14 13 16,5 14 12,5 13,5

Olivier Besancenot 5 4 5 5 5 4,5

José Bové 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 1

Marie-George Buffet 2,5 3 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5

Arlette Laguiller 2,5 2 2 1,5 2,5 2

Gérard Schivardi 0,5 0,5 0 - de 0,5 0,5 0,5

Dominique Voynet 2 1,5 1,5 1 1 1,5

Frédéric Nihous 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 2

Philippe de Villiers 1,5 2,5 1,5 1,5 2 2

2E TOUR :
Sarkozy/Royal 51/49 51/49 50/50 53/47 52/48 53,5/46,5