French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sarkozy-Bayrou would be interesting

It would just be an exceedingly dull re-run of the 1969 election

[Gustaf]

Would Bayrou get the right and win in that situation? Or would his base be far too weak?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would Bayrou get the right and win in that situation? Or would his base be far too weak?

You mean Sarkozy-Bayrou or Royal-Bayrou? I think that voting patterns in the first would be a bit like '69, but that Bayrou would poll better than Poher, second would be like '74 and '81.

[Umengus]

sofres poll

01/31-02/01 (last 02/17-18)

Laguiller: 3% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 4%

Royal: 28% (-3)

Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)

Le page: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 13% (+4)

Sarkozy: 32% (-3)

Dupont-aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Did not express: 19% (-4)

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+3)

Did not express: 20% (-2)

 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Umengus,

Any truth in the rumours that the Extreme left might decide in the end to rally around one candidate instead of splitting the vote four ways like last time?
And if so, what are the chances that this candidate "does a Le Pen" and goes to the second round. And would an extreme leftist do any better against Sarkozy (or Royal) than Le Pen did against Chirac?

Also could you give a general position where some of the more obscure candidates stand - mainly Dupont-aignan and Lepage.

[CARLHAYDEN]

sofres poll

01/31-02/01 (last 02/17-18)

Laguiller: 3% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 4%

Royal: 28% (-3)

Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)

Le page: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 13% (+4)

Sarkozy: 32% (-3)

Dupont-aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Did not express: 19% (-4)

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+3)

Did not express: 20% (-2)

 

I recently read (in the International Herald Tribune) Royal's programme.

I was stunned! 

Most socialist parties in Europe (from what I have seen) have come to understand that too much socialism kills an economy.

Is here pronouncement going over well in France?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of her proposed policies aren't that left-wing; especially when you consider how French social policy is structured at the moment.

O/c a lot of her other proposals are just election gimmicks.

As always with French politics, the rhetoric should be ignored as it means nothing.

[afleitch]

Segolene is simply covering her back. The bigger the programme the easier it is to focus on the popular aspects of it and let the more unpopular parts fall by the wayside. She doesn’t, despite her dip in the polls need to worry about anyone from the left ‘spoiling’ her candidacy. Sure, Bove is now running, but he’s seems to be taking support from Besancenot (and ideologically is in a bit of a grey area for many far leftists) and the far left have no one of significant stature (okay Robert Hue wasn’t great, but at least you knew where he stood) If anything it’s Bayrou who could be the dark horse if the public get a little frustrated with or simply bored by Sarkozy or Royal. Bayrou is well placed to pick up support should something happen during the campaign that causes Royal’s support to collapse. At the moment however I can’t see anything other than a Sarkozy/Royal run off.

[afleitch]

IFOP for ParisMatch. Monday- to be published on Thursday apparently

Round 1
Sarkozy 33.5 (+2.5)
Royal 26 (-1.5)
Bayrou 14 (+3)
Le Pen 10 (-3)

Round 2
Sarkozy 54 (+2)
Royal 46 (-2)

-----------------

This is the first poll since the launch of Royal's platform.

[Verily]

sofres poll

01/31-02/01 (last 02/17-18)

Laguiller: 3% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 4%

Royal: 28% (-3)

Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)

Le page: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 13% (+4)

Sarkozy: 32% (-3)

Dupont-aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Did not express: 19% (-4)

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+3)

Did not express: 20% (-2)

 

I recently read (in the International Herald Tribune) Royal's programme.

I was stunned! 

Most socialist parties in Europe (from what I have seen) have come to understand that too much socialism kills an economy.

Is here pronouncement going over well in France?

Royal's policies are much more moderate than the usual fare offered up by the French Socialists. I'm afraid you'd probably consider Sarkozy a socialist, too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Royal's policies are much more moderate than the usual fare offered up by the French Socialists.

In terms of rhetoric yes, in terms of policy (that is; if the proposed policies ever happen), no.

[angus]

Thar she blows.  Hard to miss a twelve-page thread.  Guess I don't come over here much.

So yeah, that's my thought as well, depending on what you mean by "moderate"  My impression is that the business class supports easing restrictions, for example, on the government-mandated 35 hour workweek, but not generally the socialists.  So it's a little surprising that she has made statements criticizing the restriction, or pointing it out as a source of economic frustration.  On the other hand, wasn't she elected in a fairly traditionalistic and business-friendly region to begin with?  Maybe provincial politics has rubbed off on her.  It's like being a socialist from Wyoming, and winning statewide.  Somehow, you'd have to sound not much like a socialist in your campaign speeches to do that.  Challenging the efficiency of the justice system, is the sort of thing Mme Royal did that seemed to win points in back home in Clint Eastwood country, but if you're campaigning nationwide, even little things like showing up in heels to a chilean slum gets you noticed.  negatively.  Seems to me she's riding on personality and fanfare (not unlike US politicians) more than on ideology and policy proposals.

As for your parenthetical statement, I'm not sure I agree.  What policy proposal in particular sounds unlike, or less moderate than, the "usual fare" offered up by French socialists?  Ah, guess I'll have to go back and give the thread a proper read to get my answer.  Maybe this weekend. 

[Umengus]

Umengus,

Any truth in the rumours that the Extreme left might decide in the end to rally around one candidate instead of splitting the vote four ways like last time?
And if so, what are the chances that this candidate "does a Le Pen" and goes to the second round. And would an extreme leftist do any better against Sarkozy (or Royal) than Le Pen did against Chirac?

Also could you give a general position where some of the more obscure candidates stand - mainly Dupont-aignan and Lepage.

each candidates must have 500  "signatures" (of mayors or regionals elected) to be candidate. Not sure that the 5 extreme-left candidates will have this result. each candidate wait that another extreme left candidate retires his run. It's a problem of "ego". In 2002, there was already 4 extr-left candidates. Hence, no surprise if there are still 4 or 5 candidates. One candidate (but who?) could get (maybe) 10% but no more. And lots of besancenot voters in 2002 should vote for Royal (the "useful vote").

[Umengus]

CSA poll

Schivardi: <0,5%
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 4% (+2)
Buffet: 2% (-1)
Bové: 3% (+2)

Voynet: 1% (-1)
Royal: 26% (-1)

Le page: 0,5% (-0,5)

Nihous: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 12% (=)

Sarkozy: 33% (+2)

Dupon Aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 14% (-2)

Turnout: 75% (+1)

Sarkozy: 54% (+1)
Royal: 46% (-1)

Turnout: 73% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

The new CSA poll schows a big bounce for Royal after her TV debate, which had more viewers than the Sarkozy debate.

With Sarkozy leading Royal 55-45 in their previous poll, Royal gained 4% and is now just behind by 49-51 in the second round.

1st round (gain/loss compared to last poll):

Royal: 29% (+2)
Sarkozy: 28% (-5)
Bayrou: 17% (+4)
Le Pen: 14% (-)

http://www.csa-fr.com/fusioncharts/presi2007/presi2007.html

[Umengus]

ipsos poll

BEFORE the royal performance at tv (9 000 000 spectators (40 000 000 voters)).

Royal: 23% (-4)
Bayrou: 16% (+2)
Sarkozy: 33% (-1)
Le Pen: 13% (=)

Royal: 46% (-1)
Sarkozy: 54% (+1)

If Royal comes back in polls, Bayrou will lost punts. it's mechanic. Wait for others polls but csa poll seems a little bit crazy..

[Verily]

Go go Bayrou! (The man with "the charisma of a coffee table", but the only good choice for France.)

[Hash]

In a recent poll I saw, if Chirac was candidate, he would have only 4%, behind Besancenot (4.5%)

[© tweed]

Is Royal done?

[afleitch]

Is Royal done?

The CSA poll could be an outlyer, particularly in comparison with another poll published that day (BVA - though not sure of the fieldwork) Either way it seems Bayrou is quite the dark horse. Should the current trend continue (which they won't) he would be level pegging with Royal in early March. If so they might have to start polling Sarkozy v Bayrou.

[Umengus]

the dark horse stays le pen.

[Verily]

Le Pen is no longer the dark horse; Sarkozy's rhetoric prevents any serious contention by him. Royal may do poorly in the first round and may even lose out to Bayrou, but she won't lose out to Le Pen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

IFOP poll

First round
Sarkozy 28% (-4)
Royal 28% (+2.5)
Bayrou 17%
Le Pen 11.5%

Second round
Sarkozy 50.5%
Royal 49.5%


source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,468481,00.html (in German)

[Umengus]

Le Pen is no longer the dark horse; Sarkozy's rhetoric prevents any serious contention by him. Royal may do poorly in the first round and may even lose out to Bayrou, but she won't lose out to Le Pen.

rhetoric is just... rhetoric. Reality is there and not in favor of Sarkozy. And what about unemployement?, poverty?, immigration?... Majority of people thinks that France is on the bad track. Good for le pen.

Interesting to see the (over) power of polls. One week ago, Royal was done. Today she's the favorite. Etc. Medias are overinfluenced by polls, like in 2002.

Interesting also to see great movements in polls (-5 +4). not always a good reason to eplain that. Why Sarkozy does -5? ...

PS: Don't forget that in 2002, the last ifop poll gave 10% (-7% comparing with reality) at Le Pen. Hence, Le  pen is at 19?

[Verily]

Le Pen was an outsider in 2002; I'm sure many people were unwilling to admit to voting for him. Sure, he'll still be underestimated slightly in the polls, but the fact that he made it to the second round last time means a lot fewer people will be unwilling to admit that he's their first preference: maybe +3 to his total, at most.

Frankly, rhetoric is what politicians need. If the people hear that Sarkozy is going to fix all the same things as Le Pen, and he's the candidate of the more established party, they'll vote for Sarkozy. It doesn't matter if Sarkozy's actual policies don't reflect his rhetoric very well; I can't say whether they do or do not. What matters is the impression that Sarkozy gives of himself and that the media gives of him, the impression that Sarkozy is extremely tough on crime and immigration.