French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Predictions:
Sarkozy 24%
Bayrou 19%
Royal 19%
Le Pen 18%

[Hash]

No, I wouldn't give Royal as low as 19%, unless all 8 other minor candidates have excellent scores.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN election coverage - http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/04/16/france.programming/

[Hash]

Can't wait till tommorow. My family will be voting before following the programming on TV5MONDE.

[Speed of Sound]

A last minute "Good Luck!" to Ségolène Royal! ^__^

[Harry Hayfield]

I managed to find (rather through luck than design) the votes for the 2002 elections and just idling wondered what would happen if you divided the shares by grouping (as identified by the BBC) by the number of candidates standing in that grouping and comparing the winner with the actual winner (and the results were quite eye opening)

In the majority of cases where the Left grouping won the district, they still won it after averaging but of the 20 districts where the Right won, after averaging the Far Right won 9 of them (suggesting that because there were so many left wing parties, the left wing votes were about a quarter the strength of the right wing parties).

Therefore, can anyone tell me how many candidates each grouping (Left, Right, Far Right and Others) are fielding as this may have an impact of who wins the first round tomorrow evening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you mean the results by department or?

[True Democrat]

CNN election coverage - http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/04/16/france.programming/

Do you think they'll be covering this on NBC?

Not one of my best moments. . .

[Keystone Phil]

CNN election coverage - http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/04/16/france.programming/

Do you think they'll be covering this on NBC?

This is an NBC News Special Report - Britain's Decision - 2005

Good evening, America. This is Tom Brokaw reporting live from London. We are now ready to call Dumfries and Galloway for...

[Sam Spade]

This guess is probably wrong, but so be it.

Sarkozy - 26
Royal - 23
Bayrou - 17
Le Pen - 17
Others - 17

[Umengus]

A tunisian polling firm gives:

Before correction and with undecided:

Royal: 32%
Sarkozy: 29%
Bayrou: 19%
Le Pen: 5,1%
Besancenot: 4,5%
Buffet: 2,5%
Bové: 2,3%
Voynet: 1,5%
Laguiller: 1%
Nihous: 0,8%
Schivardi: 0,5%

did not say + undecided: 53%

After their correction and undecided pushed  :
(details on http://www.3cetudes.fr/070420%202400%20Suivi%20Elections%20FINAL%20IC%20HG.htm )

Royal: 25%
Sarkozy: 22%
Le Pen: 21%
Bayrou: 17%

Besancenot: 5%
De Villiers: 2%
Bové: 2%
Buffet: 1,5%
Voynet: 1,5%
Laguiller: 1%
Nihous: 1%
Schivardi: 0,4%

Problem is that this firm is recent and has no experience. But if they are right, very good for them...

[kireev]

I am pretty good at predicting Russian election results, but I international electon results often surprise me. However, in this case I just have to try:

Sarkozy 28%
Royal 24%
Bayrou 16%
Le Pen 16%
Others 16%

[Harry Hayfield]

Do you mean the results by department or?

How many candidates are there and which grouping do the candidates belong to (Left, Right, Far Right and Others)

[Harry Hayfield]

I have an even better one:

"Live from London, this is Decision 2005. We are just about to call Sedgefield as a Labour HOLD and will take the Prime Minister's speech LIVE but we are being told that Ceredigion is due to announce. Our experts have been doing the polls and are calling it as Plaid Cymru"

10 minutes later

"We had put Ceredigion into the Plaid Cymru column, but we are now being told that the Liberal Democrats are polling well, as a result we are now saying Too close to call"

5 minutes later

"Liberal Democrats GAIN Ceredigion"

[Democratic Hawk]

Sarkozy 27%
Royal 25.5%
Bayrou 20%
Le Pen 18%
Others 9.5%

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

[Verily]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

If Sharia law were to lead France to scrap the CAP or leave the EU, it would be a good thing for the rest of the EU though.

[Cubby]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Except I am sort of a fan of hers.

If its not too late, I'd like to revise my prediction:

Sarkozy  28%
Royal      26%
Le Pen    18%
Bayrou    18%

I hope that Tunisian Poll is right, although its the first one I've seen with Royal leading, so it might be an outlier (sp?)

Vive la France!

[Bono]

I am pretty good at predicting Russian election results,

Putin's candidate wins, how hard can it be?

[Bono]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

If Sharia law were to lead France to scrap the CAP or leave the EU, it would be a good thing for the rest of the EU though.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Hash]

Anybody know a site where it's possible to get results before the official timing? I know that polling firms are gonna have the results quite early.

[Umengus]

www.lesoir.be should give exit polls at local 6 pm. www.rtbf.be at 7 pm. And also zwisterland tv I think.

[Umengus]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Except I am sort of a fan of hers.

If its not too late, I'd like to revise my prediction:

Sarkozy  28%
Royal      26%
Le Pen    18%
Bayrou    18%

I hope that Tunisian Poll is right, although its the first one I've seen with Royal leading, so it might be an outlier (sp?)

Vive la France!

outlier maybe but outlier in the correction then.

[SPQR]

Which candidate should a high turnout benefit?