Most likely to run for the Democratic nomination

[Mr. Morden]

Would Mark Cuban even run as a Democrat?

He's an Independent, though I believe he said that he voted for Clinton last year.  So I don't know, maybe he'd just run as an Indy.  But running for the nomination of one of the two major parties allows you to play in the primaries and gets you on a national debate stage, so it would be tempting to go that route.

[Mr. Morden]

After thinking about it a little more, here’s my quick and dirty list of the most likely people to run for the nomination, from #1 to #24 (I’ve probably forgotten a few names though):

1 O’Malley
2 Booker
3 Gillibrand
4 Warren
5 Castro
6 Cuomo
7 Klobuchar
8 Sanders
9 Brown
10 Biden
11 de Blasio
12 Harris
13 Hickenlooper
14 Gabbard
15 Franken
16 Kander
17 Murphy
18 Bullock
19 Malloy
20 Clinton
21 Kerry
22 Patrick
23 Kaine
24 Sandberg

[Hoosier_Nick]

After thinking about it a little more, here’s my quick and dirty list of the most likely people to run for the nomination, from #1 to #24 (I’ve probably forgotten a few names though):

1 O’Malley
2 Booker
3 Gillibrand
4 Warren
5 Castro
6 Cuomo
7 Klobuchar
8 Sanders
9 Brown
10 Biden
11 de Blasio
12 Harris
13 Hickenlooper
14 Gabbard
15 Franken
16 Kander
17 Murphy
18 Bullock
19 Malloy
20 Clinton
21 Kerry
22 Patrick
23 Kaine
24 Sandberg

That's a pretty solid list. This would be what I would say:

1. O'Malley
2. Cuomo
3. Booker
4. Gillibrand
5. Klobuchar
6. Warren
7. Harris
8. Castro
9. Gabbard
10. Sanders
11. Brown
12. Murphy
13. Hickenlooper
14. Clinton
15. de Blasio
16. Kander
17. Franken
18. Bullock
19. Biden
20. Patrick
21. Sandberg
22. Malloy
23. Kerry
24. Kaine

[Mr. Morden]

The only note I'll make about Booker is that his term also expires in 2020, so he'll have to choose between reelection and the presidency (not super-familiar with NJ election law on that front).

The filing deadline for that Senate seat is in early April 2020, so he could pull a Rubio if he wanted to: Run for president, and if it's not looking good after Super Tuesday, drop out of the race and run for reelection for Senate.

Bumping this because I thought of another potential candidate for whom this could be an issue: Al Franken.  Franken of course has given a Shermanesque denial, but like I said upthread, I wouldn't rule out him changing his mind.  Like Booker, his seat is up in 2020.  Previously, Minnesota held a caucus, so this would've been a non-issue for him.  But last year Dayton signed legislation that set up a presidential primary for Minnesota in 2020.  Does this create any complications for Franken potentially running for Senate and President at the same time?  Is the presidential primary in MN doubling as a primary for congressional races, and/or can you have your name on the ballot for both positions?

[politics_king]

1.) Martin O'Malley
2.) Bill DeBlasio
3.) Tulsi Gabbard
4.) Tom Perez
5.) John Bel Edwards
6.) Jason Kander

I think you can get a Democrat situation like the 2012 GOP.

[Hoosier_Nick]

1.) Martin O'Malley
2.) Bill DeBlasio
3.) Tulsi Gabbard
4.) Tom Perez
5.) John Bel Edwards
6.) Jason Kander

I think you can get a Democrat situation like the 2012 GOP.

#Kander2020 if that's the field.

[Confused Democrat]

I think there's a 0-1% chance that Kander runs in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

OK, here is my updated list of the top 25 most likely to run for the Democratic nomination:

1 O’Malley
2 Booker
3 Warren
4 Cuomo
5 Gillibrand
6 Castro
7 Klobuchar
8 Harris
9 Murphy
10 Bullock
11 Sanders
12 Gabbard
13 McAuliffe
14 Biden
15 Hickenlooper
16 Merkley
17 Brown
18 Franken
19 Kander
20 de Blasio
21 Garcetti
22 Inslee
23 Schultz
24 Kaine
25 Clinton

Yes, I realize that I just wrote in the Tea Leaves thread that Biden going to NH later this month caused me to bump him up a few slots on my list, yet he’s *down* in the rankings from my list in February.  That’s because, at least in the loosely ordered mental list I was keeping, Biden had slid down the rankings to the high teens over the last couple of months, as he faded from the spotlight, and as folks like Harris and McAuliffe dropped more hints, and thereby caught up to him.  But he’s making a comeback now, so he’s up to 14.  Both Biden and Sanders would certainly be higher on this list if I didn’t think age was an issue for them.  But there’s a good chance that it will be, whatever they’re saying now.

[136or142]

I'm positive I read some place that if Sherrod Brown ran for President, his wife would leave him.