Most likely to run for the Democratic nomination

[Mr. Morden]

Not most likely to win the nomination, but most likely to run.  From following the tea leaves thread, here is my informal list of people who have dropped some kind of hints in the last ~six months or so (so yes, going back to before the election) that they might be interested in running for prez, and who also haven’t given a straightforward “I will not run” denial in the way that Al Franken and Tim Kaine have:

Biden
Booker
Castro
Cuomo
Gillibrand
Kander
Klobuchar
O’Malley
Sanders
Warren

I may be forgetting someone though.  And I guess you've also got folks like de Blasio, who hasn't done anything in the past six months that I can think of, yet visited Iowa both in 2015 and early 2016, so I'd have to put him on the watch list.

There’s been a broad spectrum re: how overt they’re being though.  E.g., O’Malley has actually visited Iowa twice just since December, and he actually says “maybe” when asked if he’s going to run for president again.  (As opposed to “It’s too early to ask that question”, which is what most of those currently in office are saying.)  Whereas Cuomo gives quasi-denials in public, yet he’s hired some former Obama people, and his aides leak things like “a 2020 presidential run is all but inevitable”, which is what some of them were apparently saying on background in December.

Then you’ve got folks like Sherrod Brown and Kamala Harris, who haven’t really done much of anything to signal presidential interest at this point, but are considered by some to be potentially strong contenders for the nomination should they run, and so are frequently brought up in these lists of potential candidates.

So how would you rank these folks in terms of which of them is most likely to actually run?

[RaphaelDLG]

Likely
Cuomo
Booker
Gillibrand
(ugh to all three)

Possibly
Castro
Warren
Klobuchar
O'Malley

Unlikely
Kander (resume will be disqualifyingly thin)

Very Unlikely
Sanders
Biden

[America Needs R'hllor]

Very Likely
Booker
O'Malley

Likely
Cuomo

Somewhat Likely
Gillibrand
Warren
Klobuchar
Harris
Kander

Unlikely
De Blasio
Brown
Castro

Very Unlikely
Sanders
Biden

[SCNCmod]

Likely
Cuomo
Booker
Gillibrand
(ugh to all three)

Possibly
Castro
Warren
Klobuchar
O'Malley

Unlikely
Kander (resume will be disqualifyingly thin)

Very Unlikely
Sanders
Biden

I think this list looks pretty close

[Hoosier_Nick]

Very Likely:
O'Malley
Cuomo

Likely:
Gillibrand
Booker
Klobuchar

Unlikely:
Warren
Sanders
Castro

Very Unlikely
Biden
Kander

Also, some other people likely to run: Harris, Brown, Murphy.

[Mr. Smith]

Booker and I wouldn't count out Tulsi either.

[Figueira]

I think these people will run (in order of likelihood):

O'Malley
Booker
Cuomo
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Gabbard
Castro

I think a bunch of other people will probably run as well, but those are the only ones I'd say are individually likely on their own.

[RaphaelDLG]

I think these people will run (in order of likelihood):

O'Malley
Booker
Cuomo
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Gabbard
Castro

I think a bunch of other people will probably run as well, but those are the only ones I'd say are individually likely on their own.

Jesus it sucks so much that O'Malley is the best option

[Figueira]

I think these people will run (in order of likelihood):

O'Malley
Booker
Cuomo
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Gabbard
Castro

I think a bunch of other people will probably run as well, but those are the only ones I'd say are individually likely on their own.

Jesus it sucks so much that O'Malley is the best option

If those are literally the only candidates, I think I'd vote for Castro honestly.

[SCNCmod]

I could easily see the final 3 in the Primaries:

Cory Booker
Elizabeth Warren (or Sherrod Brown if Warren doesn't run)
Julian Castro

1st 4 Primaries
IA: Split Decision
NH:  Warren
NV: Castro
SC: Booker

Super Tuesday Primaries
AL: Booker
AR: Booker
CO: Castro- Warren (2nd)
GA: Booker- Castro (2nd)
MA: Warren- Booker (2nd)
MN: Warren
OK: Warren- Castro (2nd)
TN: Booker
TX: Castro
VT: Warren
VA: Split


....I could see Castro & Booker picking Sherrod Brown as VP
....Elizabeth Warren would probably pick whoever finished 2nd place in the primary

[JustinTimeCuber]

Cory Booker
Chance of running: 80%
Chance of winning nomination: -4% (-5% x 80%)
Chance of winning Presidency: -3% (-4% x 75%)

Reason he'll run: The establishment likes him, and thinks that the progressive base won't notice how much of a sellout he really is.
Reason he'll lose, probably before Super Tuesday: Progressives kinda hate him, and there is a wide field of progressives who might run.

Bernie Sanders
Chance of running: 45%
Chance of winning nomination: 41% (90% x 45%)
Chance of winning Presidency: 40% (99% x 41%)

Reason he might run: There will inevitably be a major Draft Sanders movement, and if an establishment candidate jumps in early he would be worried about letting 2016 happen all over again.
Reason he'll win, if he runs: Bernie is the de facto leader of the Democratic base, it's pretty clear. He's got popular policies, much more of a starting platform than 2016, and would be running against less of a behemoth than the Clinton machine.

Everyone else: Boring to me. If it's someone like Tammy Baldwin or Sherrod Brown or Jason Kander, I'd be willing to call myself a supporter, unlike with Hillary Clinton (where I wasn't enough of a supporter to vote for her in my school's mock election).

[houseonaboat]

The only note I'll make about Booker is that his term also expires in 2020, so he'll have to choose between reelection and the presidency (not super-familiar with NJ election law on that front). If by 2019 it's clear, either through internal polling, general headwinds among the party, fundraising, or whatever, that he wouldn't be able to emerge from the primary, then it's likely that he opts for an easy reelection than run for the presidency.

[SCNCmod]

The only note I'll make about Booker is that his term also expires in 2020, so he'll have to choose between reelection and the presidency (not super-familiar with NJ election law on that front). If by 2019 it's clear, either through internal polling, general headwinds among the party, fundraising, or whatever, that he wouldn't be able to emerge from the primary, then it's likely that he opts for an easy reelection than run for the presidency.

If poll looks tough for him... he will prob not run- knowing he will be a likely VP choice

[Mr. Morden]

The only note I'll make about Booker is that his term also expires in 2020, so he'll have to choose between reelection and the presidency (not super-familiar with NJ election law on that front).

The filing deadline for that Senate seat is in early April 2020, so he could pull a Rubio if he wanted to: Run for president, and if it's not looking good after Super Tuesday, drop out of the race and run for reelection for Senate.

[RINO Tom]

Likely
Cuomo
Booker
Gillibrand
(ugh to all three)

Possibly
Castro
Warren
Klobuchar
O'Malley

Unlikely
Kander (resume will be disqualifyingly thin)

Very Unlikely
Sanders
Biden

Even in the often-fantasized-about party system where Democrats are this corporatist party (seriously, did nobody pay attention to ANYTHING on the Democratic side in 2016?!), there is simply no way that Democratic voters will stand for those three being in the ring.  No way.  I know that's not what you were saying necessarily with this list, but there is going to be a very strong progressive-populist presence in the primaries, and I personally think someone from that wing prevails.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess Hickenlooper should now be added to the list:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5516599#msg5516599

[Vosem]

I don't see any particular evidence that rank-and-file progressives "kinda hate" Booker (he'd be easy to attack, but it would still have to be done), and even in the post-Obama era I think a credible African-American candidate is still going to have a very high floor among African-Americans, which is going to be very useful in a Democratic primary where they form the majority of the electorate in many Super Tuesday states that vote early. I'd say Booker's chances of being the nominee are much greater than 5%.

It also wouldn't be hard for Booker to pull a Rubio, try to run for President, then quit if it doesn't work well and run for reelection; New Jersey in general has a much more pro-incumbent and machine-oriented culture than Florida, which is more topsy-turvy and prone to insurgent campaigns (and where Rubio still pulled it off without even really receiving a serious primary challenge). Booker's probably the second-most likely individual to be the nominee, after Bernie Sanders.

[Oppo]

Gov. O'Malley (95%)
Sen. Booker (85%)
Gov. Cuomo (70%)
Sen. Gillibrand (65%)
Sen. Klobuchar (55%)
Sen. Warren (30%)
Sec. Castro (30%)
Sen. Sanders (10%)
VP Biden (5%)
Sec. Kander (5%)

[Figueira]

Interesting that I often see people in Montana threads casually say that Bullock will probably run for President in 2020, and yet no one has mentioned him here.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting that I often see people in Montana threads casually say that Bullock will probably run for President in 2020, and yet no one has mentioned him here.

Bullock went to a David Brock-hosted event in Florida a few weeks ago, but otherwise hasn't really done much of anything to indicate an interest on the national scene.  He's mostly focused on Montana.  So yeah, while he certainly *could* run for president, there's nothing out there that I'm aware that would make him "probable".

[Progressive]

I'd say O'Malley is definitely running. He has nothing to lose.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Gabbard, Franken and Warren
Are the most likely progressives to run in 2020
Booker, Gillibrand, and Cuomo
Are the most likely corporate democrats

What makes you think Franken is likely to run?

[Kylar]

Likely
Andrew M. Cuomo
Elizabeth A. Warren
Kristen E. Gillibrand
Sherrod C. Brown
Cory A. Booker
Martin J. O' Malley
Possibly
John Hicklenlooper
Amy J. Klobuchar
Kamala Harris
Unsure
Martin T. Heinrich
Tammy Duckworth

[Mr. Morden]

If I was grading all the candidates on the same scale, then I’d have to list O’Malley as the most likely to run.  I mean, it’s only February 2017, and he’s been to Iowa twice in the last two months, and he’s one of the only potential candidates who says “maybe” when people ask him if he’s going to run, rather than try to change the topic.  So I’m not sure how much more obvious he can make it.

But there has to be some consideration given to likelihood of winning.  I just don’t rate O’Malley very highly as a candidate, so I figure there’s a decent chance that by January 2019, he’s still at 1% everywhere, and unable to attract any big donors or big talent to his team.  If so, then there must be at least some chance that he sees the writing on the wall and bows out before making his campaign official.

I mean, I’ll still rate him as being about tied with Booker for most likely to run, but if I wasn’t “grading on a curve” like this, I’d have him ahead of Booker.

So maybe….

most likely to run: Booker, O’Malley

next most likely: Gillibrand, Warren

a little less likely than that: Cuomo

a little less likely than that: Klobuchar

honestly, I’m not sure, as I don’t have a good read on him: Castro

probably just blowing smoke and won’t actually run, but you never know: Hickenlooper, de Blasio

seriously, a Missouri Secretary of State running for president?: Kander

would be the most likely to run (and win the nomination) if they were each 5 years younger, but they’re a bit too old now, so they probably won’t, yet I’m not ruling it out completely: Biden, Sanders

they’re not really doing anything to indicate interest, but they’re worth keeping an eye on as possibilities: Brown, Harris, Bullock

big longshots to run, but possibly the most likely “business world” candidates with no political experience: Mark Cuban (wouldn't necessarily run as a Dem.), Sheryl Sandberg

unlikely to run, but still probably more likely than the other people who’ve already given a Shermanesque denial: Franken

Klobuchar’s an interesting one to rate.  Up until Nov. 8th, she was actually showing as much or more presidential ambition than anyone else on the Dem. side.  Even meeting with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at last summer’s DNC, which is open one can be about their ambitions.  But since election day, she’s been much more quiet than folks like Booker, Gillibrand, and O’Malley.  And unlike Booker, Gillibrand, Sanders, and Warren, she’s voted for confirmation for more than a few of Trump’s Cabinet nominees.  It seems unlikely that she’s suddenly given up on the presidency, so maybe she’s just lying low and is in reelection mode now, and will reemerge with presidential ambition in December 2018.

[The Other Castro]

Would Mark Cuban even run as a Democrat?