French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone know any TV channels that we Americans will be able to watch the results on?

If it all comes unstuck, I can happily assist.

Would you like English language coverage:

France 24: Live Coverage from 6.00pm BST (7.00pm CET)
CNN International: Live Coverage from 7.00pm BST (8.00pm CET)
if so, go to www.france24.com

or would you like French language

TV5 Monde: Live Coverage from 6.20pm BST (7.20pm CET)

I will be recording the France 24 Coverage (which ends at 10.00pm BST) and then swapping to TV5 Monde and if anyone not able to get the coverage will happily transfer it to a DVD and post it (for a £1 nominal fee and whatever the postage is)

[Harry Hayfield]

I managed to find (rather through luck than design) the votes for the 2002 elections and just idling wondered what would happen if you divided the shares by grouping (as identified by the BBC) by the number of candidates standing in that grouping and comparing the winner with the actual winner (and the results were quite eye opening)

In the majority of cases where the Left grouping won the district, they still won it after averaging but of the 20 districts where the Right won, after averaging the Far Right won 9 of them (suggesting that because there were so many left wing parties, the left wing votes were about a quarter the strength of the right wing parties).

Therefore, can anyone tell me how many candidates each grouping (Left, Right, Far Right and Others) are fielding as this may have an impact of who wins the first round tomorrow evening.

[Harry Hayfield]

Do you mean the results by department or?

How many candidates are there and which grouping do the candidates belong to (Left, Right, Far Right and Others)

[Harry Hayfield]

I have an even better one:

"Live from London, this is Decision 2005. We are just about to call Sedgefield as a Labour HOLD and will take the Prime Minister's speech LIVE but we are being told that Ceredigion is due to announce. Our experts have been doing the polls and are calling it as Plaid Cymru"

10 minutes later

"We had put Ceredigion into the Plaid Cymru column, but we are now being told that the Liberal Democrats are polling well, as a result we are now saying Too close to call"

5 minutes later

"Liberal Democrats GAIN Ceredigion"

[Harry Hayfield]

Sky News (of all people) is reporting the following exit poll

Sarskoy 28%
Royal 25%

All of which brings up the question of MoE

[Harry Hayfield]

Ipsos would give:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 18%
Le Pen: 16%

Take this one for instance, let's assume a 3% MoE, that could mean:

Sarkozy: 24 - 30%
Royal: 23 - 29%
Bayrou: 15 - 21%
Le Pen: 13 - 18%

[Harry Hayfield]

Where is everyone getting the results from?

Sky News (until 1700 GMT) then France 24 until 2100 GMT and then TV5 Monde until 2235 GMT

[Harry Hayfield]

France 24 Exit Poll

Turnout: 85% (+13.7% on 2002)