French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought that people like De Villepin got their heads cut off at the end of the 18th century

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are there any popular politicians in France?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was a big article about Royal in the Guardian (or was it the Observer?) a week or so ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party.

Only in France (and the Third World)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2) The bayrou bump (due to his anti-tf1 (first tv channel) stance I think)

Ah; I was wondering what was behind that. With the exception of the continual see-sawing of the three Commie candidates (which is all within the MoE anyway) it's been the most interesting thing about the polls recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a site with polls from 2002 on it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://francepolitique.free.fr/sondages.htm

Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Besancenot: 3% (-1)
Laguiller: 2% (-1,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Yet more MoE fun on the far left!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Haha! Still, unless France's attitude towards Quebec has changed a lot in recent years, I can't really see that hurting her with voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just for the sheer hell of it, I decided to check if in 2002 Le Pen won any Cantons in the second round; he didn't (unless I missed one). His highest % was (I think) 37% in St Gilles (Gard department).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm still plugging for a Bayrou-Sarkozy runoff.

Won't happen; the Left isn't split enough or weak enough to allow two candidates from the Right into the second round.

If Sarkozy strength in the polls really is exaggerated (and at the expense of Le Pen), a Royal-Le Pen runoff is much more likely than that actually; especially if Chirac decides to play the role of an electoral suicide-bomber.

The battle out on the far-left is looking very interesting though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sarkozy-Bayrou would be interesting

It would just be an exceedingly dull re-run of the 1969 election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would Bayrou get the right and win in that situation? Or would his base be far too weak?

You mean Sarkozy-Bayrou or Royal-Bayrou? I think that voting patterns in the first would be a bit like '69, but that Bayrou would poll better than Poher, second would be like '74 and '81.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of her proposed policies aren't that left-wing; especially when you consider how French social policy is structured at the moment.

O/c a lot of her other proposals are just election gimmicks.

As always with French politics, the rhetoric should be ignored as it means nothing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Royal's policies are much more moderate than the usual fare offered up by the French Socialists.

In terms of rhetoric yes, in terms of policy (that is; if the proposed policies ever happen), no.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things have taken another turn for the unpredictable then. Btw, why so sure that Bayrou will collapse? (serious question, not even slightly loaded or anything like that).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SCA?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He'll get the signatures; he's likely just fooling around for symphathy; did it last time round as well.
IIRC one of the far left candidates is having more genuine trouble though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things look to be quite open right now don't they? Anyone who makes any predictions now is official A Fool...

Btw, any figures for Le Pen and the far-lefties?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, the newest Ipsos poll is something like 31/25/21. Is there a site that tracks poll numbers from all companies?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Merci

Some of the differences between the different polling companies are quite interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why not? Bayrou himself has more than doubled his poll numbers in a very short space of time; things can change very quickly in French politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The following have enough signatures to appear on the ballot:

Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen, Besancenot, Buffet, Laguiller, Nihous, Schivardi, de Villiers, Voynet

Bove is reported to be uncertain whether he has enough or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. If Bove doesn't make it, will it help Royal make the second round, or will his numbers just collapse into the statistical noise and go to Besancenot or Buffet?

When he entered the race he mainly took from Besancenot and Buffet IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.