11th March 2017, West Australia state Election

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Crazy to think the last time a state election took place here, Julia Gillard was still PM.

Anyway, the economy is poopy at the moment and Colin Barnett's government seems to have been viewed as squandering the mining boom, and is an underdog against Mark McGowan's Labor opposition. One Nation are poised to do very well, both in the lower house and the ludicrously disproportionate upper house.

[lilTommy]

Looks like for almost two years now, the ALP have lead the TPP, the last poll here from this month has the ALP leading 54% to 46%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australian_state_election,_2017

Yikes, One Nation at 13%, higher then the Greens (9%) and Nationals

[IceAgeComing]

The Nationals aren't in a formal coalition with the Libs here; they were in government with Labor before the last election, so the government majority is actually a fair bit smaller that you'd think looking at the figures.  Also the Upper House election uses the old Senate voting system with Group Voting Tickets; so expect some randomer from a party you've never heard to to win a Legiislative Council seat.

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Yes the nationals are an autonomous party in West Australia. Their big policy this year is apparently a mining tax, which the Liberals very much do not want.

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So, the Liberals are preferencing One Nation above National...

[IceAgeComing]

That's not that surprising; although it probably means that if it went to a hung parliament (unlikely) the Nats probably wouldn't be rushing into any deal with the Liberals...

[Lachi]

Even though refere3nce  deals have been made, it doesn't mean they will be followed.

Also, another interesting point to make, there is a micro party called the Micro Business Party who have somehow managed to get something like 49/50 candidates. That's a lot of deposits for what is almost certainly going to be no seats.

[IceAgeComing]

If you fancy messing around with potential upper House compositions then you can get a Legislative Council calculator here from the ABC.  Seems to suggest to me that if FLOURIDE FREE WA are probably the favourites to be the random micro party that wins a seat in this election; if they aren't eliminated first then most of the other micros seem to transfer to them first (some transfer to the Australian Christians; although the random Flouride party is next).  Helps to show just how dumb the whole system is really...

One Nation are preferencing all of the micros bar a few solidarity independents above the Libs, Nats, ALP and Greens - this shouldn't be a factor unless they are eliminated last and there's a micro party still in the hunt, if there is then ONP preferences will transfer to them rather than the Libs.  Depends on the share of the minor party vote though; there are a fair few of them standing in most places though (seems to be around 20 groups in each region; probably 50 candidates for those voting below the line so not quite as bad as a few recent ones) so even if they get a small number each that could still add up to a quota collectively which would be good enough if they corralled all of that vote behind one candidate.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm going to need to do a little more fiddling but when I give around 0.3% to each of the micro parties (probably a little too much; I just want to see which one emerges to win in each region - I'm also changing their votes by 0.01% just to get a real order of elimination rather than random stuff) I get the Flouride Party close to winning in the Metropolitan seats and in the Agriculture seat I pretty consistently get 1 Liberal, 1 Nat, 1 One Nation, 1 ALP, a Shooters and Fishers candidate and the Liberal Democrats get a Senator off 0.02 of a quota - I'm assuming a high One Nation vote that drags both the Liberals and the Nationals below a quota here (I have them both at around 1.7 quotas in the first count; they don't gain a significant number of preferences before they are eliminated, the Liberals get the left over One Nation preferences after elected the Shooters candidate but that's it while the Liberal Democrats get every other preference on the board); I don't know whether that's entirely likely or not since these things rely on luck and small numbers of votes and I'm not a huge expert on Western Australia political geography.  Like if you put the Liberal Democrats bottom of the poll then the preferences scatter a lot more early on in the count; the "Flux the System" party get the last seat if that happens though since all of the parties also preference them above the Liberals.  Its a bit of fun really; shows how dumb the system is.

[MaxQue]

It's not random, it's the work of Glenn Druery, nicknamed the preference whisperer.

He was in the founders of a small party in NSW in the mid 90's (Outdoor Recreation Party) and engineered deals with other minor parties for preferences flows for the NSW Upper House and managed to have his party win a seat, despite having 0.2% and two other small parties got seats.

Since then, he creates strategies for that in almost all elections around Australia, through his Minor Party Alliance.

[IceAgeComing]

Well yes, the whole "lets engineer our preferences to get one of us elected" thing isn't random; what can be is the minor party that gets elected since it depends on order of elimination and who is the lucky party that gathers together all of these different preferences and gets over the line - it seems to be the Flouride Free party in East Metro if they manage to get enough first preferences so that everyone else behind them being eliminated pushes them up the order to the point where they never get eliminated; Daylight Savings and Family First in the other metro seats; in Agriculture its the Liberal Democrats (although if the Liberals or the Nationals get a couple of quotas each there then that's unlikely) and I've not looked at the other seats yet.  If those parties get eliminated early then the micro party preferences seem to scatter around a lot but they end up uniting behind a different candidate anyway; hence the randomness.

I think that its the Greens who mostly lose out: being pushed on one end by One Nation and on the other by the micros.  If they manage to stay in the count longer than the last ALP candidate then those preferences might be able to push them over the line; but if not then they probably are going to struggle; most of the micro party preferences seem to end up with One Nation or the Liberals at the end of the count.

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If the major parties really wanted, they could totally abuse the system by getting people to form tons of shell parties with nice names that funnel preferences to their patrons.

[IceAgeComing]

Or they could just change the system to the one that they now use for the Senate; which I'm pretty sure they will by the next election.  I think that WA is the last state to still use Group Voting Tickets; Victoria is the only one that I think might not have changed yet.

[Lachi]

Group Ticket Voting is horrible. As Antony Green put it when the 2013 election preferences came out, he described it as the micro parties swapping preferences like a giant game of Twister, and that they take no ideological position. For instance the Sex party preferences Pauline Hanson ahead of Labor, and the Greens.

[Vosem]

I continue to rather like Group Ticket Voting, and its effect of occasionally acting as a de-facto demarchy and otherwise being a pretty good representation of the voters' wishes. The new Senate voting system doesn't really seem that much worse, though, since the minor parties are still getting in.

[Lachi]

I continue to rather like Group Ticket Voting, and its effect of occasionally acting as a de-facto demarchy and otherwise being a pretty good representation of the voters' wishes. The new Senate voting system doesn't really seem that much worse, though, since the minor parties are still getting in.

With group ticket voting, you either: vote 1 above the line, or preference everyone below. Btw, the above line preference deals are entirely party leadership decsions, it does NOT reflect the will of the public, due to the fact that around 95% of voters vote above the line.

Removing GTV, and changing to the current federal senate system gives the power of preference back to the voter, not to some bigwigs in the leadership of the party.


Here is some videos showing one of Australia's greatest election analysts, Antony Green, argue against ticket voting:

Senator Conroy vs. Green: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyNdHemNTSQ

Green talking about how micro parties could have elected Pauline Hanson in 2013, which only 2 PERCENT of the vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT7t8Xt7qms 

Green on the new senate voting system (at that time, it was only a proposal): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRRe1zeq3Gg&t=150s

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Wow, the Liberals surge to a tie in the TPP!

[Lachi]

Has anyone got any new polling, preferably from the last few days?

[Lachi]

Has anyone got any new polling, preferably from the last few days?

I can answer my own question:
ReachTEL, Feb. 27, 2016 (ReachTEL usually has a slight pro-L/NP bias)

2PP: LAB 52, L/NP 48
Primary vote:
LIB: 34.6
NAT: 6.8
LAB: 35.2
GRN: 10.7
ON: 8.5
OTH: 4.2

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What seats are likeliest to fall to Hanson?

[Lachi]

What seats are likeliest to fall to Hanson?

At the moment, none, but I think there will be 1-2 that could, under a nightmare scenario, be close to falling. But they will get seats in the Legislative Council

[IceAgeComing]

The Group Voting Ticket system may well actually hurt One Nation: without it they'd probably be in a good position to get a seat in every Legislative Council district: with it though they might find that because the Micros are almost all preference swapping within themselves they might end up falling behind a micro party late in the count and get eliminated - if the Greens get a decent share but get eliminated before the micro parties this is likely to happen since they are preference lots of them above Labor for some reason and that would be enough to get them ahead of One Nation.  If that is the case then they need a Quota by themselves to secure election since they'd get basically no preferences: the Shooters are preferencing One Nation second as are the Liberals if they have a small surplus at the end: otherwise they all either to go the Greens (ALP) or flow through most of the micro parties before getting to one of the remaining parties.  Will be interesting to watch!

[Lachi]

The Group Voting Ticket system may well actually hurt One Nation: without it they'd probably be in a good position to get a seat in every Legislative Council district: with it though they might find that because the Micros are almost all preference swapping within themselves they might end up falling behind a micro party late in the count and get eliminated - if the Greens get a decent share but get eliminated before the micro parties this is likely to happen since they are preference lots of them above Labor for some reason and that would be enough to get them ahead of One Nation.  If that is the case then they need a Quota by themselves to secure election since they'd get basically no preferences: the Shooters are preferencing One Nation second as are the Liberals if they have a small surplus at the end: otherwise they all either to go the Greens (ALP) or flow through most of the micro parties before getting to one of the remaining parties.  Will be interesting to watch!

One thing is for sure: Antony Green is gonna have a nightmare working this out

[JA]

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-mark-mcgowan-and-labor-set-to-sweep-into-power-says-galaxy-poll/news-story/12fdf40c1826722e3f030afd8a7af747

54% - Labor
46% - Liberal/National Alliance

46% - McGowan
33% - Barnett

Labor projected to pickup 14 seats, giving them a majority.

[Meclazine for Israel]

As the sole Western Australian Atlas member, my time has come to put down the glasses and think about electing a new leader of this fine state.

We have the 8 year encumbent from Cottesloe, Perth's wealthiest suburb. Pro-mining and pro business.

The new guy from Rockingham, Perth's poorest suburb. Wants better conditions for workers.

Then the orange haired pro-Putin woman who hates muslim immigration and cheap asian inported sh**te.

Everyone is talking about Pauline Hanson at the moment. I think the best she can do is steal votes from the Liberals.

Then we have the Nationals who want a 10% levy on iron ore. Which would mean we would have an extra $4Bn in the bank if it was initiated in 2006.

Decisions, decisions.