11th March 2017, West Australia state Election
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  11th March 2017, West Australia state Election
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Author Topic: 11th March 2017, West Australia state Election  (Read 7964 times)
Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2017, 09:52:58 AM »

As the sole Western Australian Atlas member, my time has come to put down the glasses and think about electing a new leader of this fine state.

We have the 8 year encumbent from Cottesloe, Perth's wealthiest suburb. Pro-mining and pro business.

The new guy from Rockingham, Perth's poorest suburb. Wants better conditions for workers.

Then the orange haired pro-Putin woman who hates muslim immigration and cheap asian inported sh**te.

Everyone is talking about Pauline Hanson at the moment. I think the best she can do is steal votes from the Liberals.

Then we have the Nationals who want a 10% levy on iron ore. Which would mean we would have an extra $4Bn in the bank if it was initiated in 2006.

Decisions, decisions.



There's another  liberal, conservative one here that's western australian. I live in WA, and have family that live here, though am from the US, and moved here, for various reasons. I work with social organisations, that is mostly aligned with the labor party here. I also laugh at how the liberals are attacking their allies, the nationals on the mining tax lol.


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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #26 on: March 06, 2017, 12:07:05 PM »

Technically the alliance in WA is a lot weaker than in the rest of Australia (well now really only Victoria and NSW; everywhere else either the Nationals have vanished (or never existed, in ACT) or merged with the Liberals): they stand for election as distinct parties and while I think that they'd only ever support a Liberal government formally (the SA Nationals once went into Coalition with the ALP: it, eh, didn't really work out for them) if the ALP got a majority in the lower house I imagine that they'd be willing to come to some sort of arrangement on most things provided they got concessions.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #27 on: March 06, 2017, 05:31:13 PM »

There's another  liberal, conservative one here that's western australian. I live in WA, and have family that live here.

Nice one. Someone else who understands the heat we endure.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #28 on: March 06, 2017, 06:46:06 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2017, 07:43:02 PM by Lok1999 »

Leaked liberal polling has labor at 57-43

http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/leaked-liberal-polling-forecasts-huge-wa-election-loss-for-premier-colin-barnett-20170306-gus1q0.html
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2017, 07:48:55 PM »

There's another  liberal, conservative one here that's western australian. I live in WA, and have family that live here.

Nice one. Someone else who understands the heat we endure.

It's horrid, especially someone from Massachusetts in the US. Though LA was quite hot.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #30 on: March 08, 2017, 05:24:37 PM »

And here we go.

I dont really care who wins as long as we get Roe 8 built.

I dont think i could stand Leach Hwy with all the trucks for the next 8 years.

For a three lane highway, it mysteriously attracts Perth's worst drivers like a perpetual energy machine.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2017, 06:05:10 PM »

And here we go.

I dont really care who wins as long as we get Roe 8 built.

I dont think i could stand Leach Hwy with all the trucks for the next 8 years.

For a three lane highway, it mysteriously attracts Perth's worst drivers like a perpetual energy machine.

Did you vote Palmer United in 2013 and the 2014 by-election?
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2017, 05:53:37 AM »
« Edited: March 09, 2017, 05:56:45 AM by Meclazine »

I don't discuss my electoral preferences or my future voting ideas.

But I can say in the case of Clive Palmer, he was pretty pathetic. Just a by-product of the mining boom.

In the upcoming WA election, many of the policies are attractive.

I like the idea of a mining tax in WA on Iron Ore. The money may as well go to the WA Government than English shareholders of Rio Tinto.

We really need Roe 8 and better infrastructure on our roads which the Liberals are promising, so that looks good.

Mark McGowan seems pretty solid, and has the polls on his side.

And Pauline Hanson is attracting plenty of attention.

Unlike US politics, in Australia, you don't discuss your voting preferences. It's quite a private political climate.

My predictions.

(a) WA Premier - Mark McGowan
(b) Pauline Hanson outperforms with 15-18% of the popular vote.


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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2017, 06:09:08 AM »

My Predictions:
2PP Swing: 12.3%
2PP Results: 55-45 LAB
Seat prediction:
LAB: 39
L/NP: 19
ON: 1 (Kalgoorlie)

Primary:
LAB: 40%
L/NP: 35%
ON: 10%
GRN: 8%
OTH: 7%
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2017, 05:42:39 PM »

Welcome to Election Day in WA!

We have the last batch of polling for the election, with both polls showing Labor will get 54% of the 2PP vote, on an average of 40.5%. One nation has seemed to have peaked earlier on, as ON has gone down from potentially getting ~15% near the start, to an average of just 7.5%.

Link to polls: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/03/10/newspoll-54-46-labor-western-australia-3/
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2017, 11:58:38 PM »

Looks like McGowan is sitting comfortable.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #36 on: March 11, 2017, 03:02:40 AM »

My predictions (better late than never):

Labor gains from Liberal: West Swan (notional), Belmont, Forrestfield, Perth, Collie-Preston (notional), Swan Hills, Morley, Balcatta, Mount Lawley, Bicton, Joondalup, Southern River, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Bunbury)
Independent gain from Liberal - Hillarys (every election has its upset, and after 24 years he should poll a decent vote
Liberal gain from National: Roe (National MP for Wagin is retiring, and sitting Liberal for Eyre is running in Roe)

2PP: 55-45

Seat numbers (changes are from post-redistribution figures):
Labor: 35 (+15)
Liberal: 17 (-15)
National: 6 (-1)
Indepdendent: 1 (+1)
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #37 on: March 11, 2017, 05:24:36 AM »

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23
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MaxQue
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« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2017, 05:30:08 AM »

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23


I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #39 on: March 11, 2017, 05:34:04 AM »

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23


I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.
They are. The liberals and Nationals together has a majority of 7, while the Liberals have a majority of 0.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #40 on: March 11, 2017, 05:38:49 AM »

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23


I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.
They are. The liberals and Nationals together has a majority of 7, while the Liberals have a majority of 0.

I'm aware they are in a coalition right now, but there is no reason to think it will hold past the election, unlike in the rest of Australia.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #41 on: March 11, 2017, 05:40:50 AM »

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23


I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.
They are. The liberals and Nationals together has a majority of 7, while the Liberals have a majority of 0.

I'm aware they are in a coalition right now, but there is no reason to think it will hold past the election, unlike in the rest of Australia.
Yeah, I don't think the Nationals in WA will want to stay, considering the Libs are in bed with One Nation.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2017, 06:22:56 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2017, 06:26:09 AM by Lok1999 »

As of 7:22 PM AWST, ABC is projecting

LAB: 26
LIB: 9
NAT: 5
In Doubt: 19

One Nation pulling just 5% statewide

Follow the results live: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2017, 06:27:37 AM »

The Nationals seem to be holding on to their support; the Liberals are going through the floor though.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2017, 06:29:54 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2017, 06:46:38 AM by Lok1999 »

Antony Green has called the election for the Labor Party

29 certain seats for Labor, 30 probables, predicting 33 seats for Labor

Fun fact: the Liberals have lost 1 premiership every year since 2014

7:37 AWST: Labor now on 32 seats, liberals stuck on 13, nationals on 5

Liberals primary vote down by nearly 35% in some electorates (yes, you did read that right)
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2017, 07:11:14 AM »

Liberals are in danger of losing Murray-Wellington and Darling Range of all places...
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2017, 07:16:58 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2017, 08:36:11 AM by Lok1999 »

Currently won by party
LAB: 39
LIB: 11
NAT: 4

PREDICTION
LAB: 41
LIB: 12
NAT: 6

PRIMARY VOTE TOTALS (ABC prediction): 60.6% counted
LAB: 42.1 (+9)
LIB: 31.0  (-16.1)
NAT: 5.3 (-0.7)
GRN: 8.9 (+0.5)
ON:   4.6 (+4.6)
OTH: 8.0 (+2.7)

SIGNIFICANT: ANTONY GREEN SAYS ONE NATION WILL STRUGGLE TO WIN ANY UPPER HOUSE SEATS!
Last update of the night, need some sleep, as it's 25 to 1 in the morning in the east
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Intell
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2017, 07:47:30 AM »

Labor wins safe-liberal seat of Bunbury with a 21.7% swing against the liberals.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2017, 08:16:19 AM »

The Daylight Savings party currently has 3 in the legislative council, interestingly.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2017, 08:26:59 AM »

They actually only have one; for some reason the ABC are counting two Shooters members as Daylight Savings for some reason.

No One Nation at this point; they are close in at least one region though.
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