11th March 2017, West Australia state Election

[Lachi]

Even though refere3nce  deals have been made, it doesn't mean they will be followed.

Also, another interesting point to make, there is a micro party called the Micro Business Party who have somehow managed to get something like 49/50 candidates. That's a lot of deposits for what is almost certainly going to be no seats.

[Lachi]

Group Ticket Voting is horrible. As Antony Green put it when the 2013 election preferences came out, he described it as the micro parties swapping preferences like a giant game of Twister, and that they take no ideological position. For instance the Sex party preferences Pauline Hanson ahead of Labor, and the Greens.

[Lachi]

I continue to rather like Group Ticket Voting, and its effect of occasionally acting as a de-facto demarchy and otherwise being a pretty good representation of the voters' wishes. The new Senate voting system doesn't really seem that much worse, though, since the minor parties are still getting in.

With group ticket voting, you either: vote 1 above the line, or preference everyone below. Btw, the above line preference deals are entirely party leadership decsions, it does NOT reflect the will of the public, due to the fact that around 95% of voters vote above the line.

Removing GTV, and changing to the current federal senate system gives the power of preference back to the voter, not to some bigwigs in the leadership of the party.


Here is some videos showing one of Australia's greatest election analysts, Antony Green, argue against ticket voting:

Senator Conroy vs. Green: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyNdHemNTSQ

Green talking about how micro parties could have elected Pauline Hanson in 2013, which only 2 PERCENT of the vote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT7t8Xt7qms 

Green on the new senate voting system (at that time, it was only a proposal): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRRe1zeq3Gg&t=150s

[Lachi]

Has anyone got any new polling, preferably from the last few days?

[Lachi]

Has anyone got any new polling, preferably from the last few days?

I can answer my own question:
ReachTEL, Feb. 27, 2016 (ReachTEL usually has a slight pro-L/NP bias)

2PP: LAB 52, L/NP 48
Primary vote:
LIB: 34.6
NAT: 6.8
LAB: 35.2
GRN: 10.7
ON: 8.5
OTH: 4.2

[Lachi]

What seats are likeliest to fall to Hanson?

At the moment, none, but I think there will be 1-2 that could, under a nightmare scenario, be close to falling. But they will get seats in the Legislative Council

[Lachi]

The Group Voting Ticket system may well actually hurt One Nation: without it they'd probably be in a good position to get a seat in every Legislative Council district: with it though they might find that because the Micros are almost all preference swapping within themselves they might end up falling behind a micro party late in the count and get eliminated - if the Greens get a decent share but get eliminated before the micro parties this is likely to happen since they are preference lots of them above Labor for some reason and that would be enough to get them ahead of One Nation.  If that is the case then they need a Quota by themselves to secure election since they'd get basically no preferences: the Shooters are preferencing One Nation second as are the Liberals if they have a small surplus at the end: otherwise they all either to go the Greens (ALP) or flow through most of the micro parties before getting to one of the remaining parties.  Will be interesting to watch!

One thing is for sure: Antony Green is gonna have a nightmare working this out

[Lachi]

Leaked liberal polling has labor at 57-43

http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/leaked-liberal-polling-forecasts-huge-wa-election-loss-for-premier-colin-barnett-20170306-gus1q0.html

[Lachi]

My Predictions:
2PP Swing: 12.3%
2PP Results: 55-45 LAB
Seat prediction:
LAB: 39
L/NP: 19
ON: 1 (Kalgoorlie)

Primary:
LAB: 40%
L/NP: 35%
ON: 10%
GRN: 8%
OTH: 7%

[Lachi]

Welcome to Election Day in WA!

We have the last batch of polling for the election, with both polls showing Labor will get 54% of the 2PP vote, on an average of 40.5%. One nation has seemed to have peaked earlier on, as ON has gone down from potentially getting ~15% near the start, to an average of just 7.5%.

Link to polls: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/03/10/newspoll-54-46-labor-western-australia-3/

[Lachi]

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23

[Lachi]

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23

I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.

They are. The liberals and Nationals together has a majority of 7, while the Liberals have a majority of 0.

[Lachi]

My final seat prediction: (+- 2-3)
LAB: 36
L/NP: 23

I'm pretty sure there is no L/N coalition in WA.

They are. The liberals and Nationals together has a majority of 7, while the Liberals have a majority of 0.

I'm aware they are in a coalition right now, but there is no reason to think it will hold past the election, unlike in the rest of Australia.

Yeah, I don't think the Nationals in WA will want to stay, considering the Libs are in bed with One Nation.

[Lachi]

As of 7:22 PM AWST, ABC is projecting

LAB: 26
LIB: 9
NAT: 5
In Doubt: 19

One Nation pulling just 5% statewide

Follow the results live: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/

[Lachi]

Antony Green has called the election for the Labor Party

29 certain seats for Labor, 30 probables, predicting 33 seats for Labor

Fun fact: the Liberals have lost 1 premiership every year since 2014

7:37 AWST: Labor now on 32 seats, liberals stuck on 13, nationals on 5

Liberals primary vote down by nearly 35% in some electorates (yes, you did read that right)

[Lachi]

Currently won by party
LAB: 39
LIB: 11
NAT: 4

PREDICTION
LAB: 41
LIB: 12
NAT: 6

PRIMARY VOTE TOTALS (ABC prediction): 60.6% counted
LAB: 42.1 (+9)
LIB: 31.0  (-16.1)
NAT: 5.3 (-0.7)
GRN: 8.9 (+0.5)
ON:   4.6 (+4.6)
OTH: 8.0 (+2.7)

SIGNIFICANT: ANTONY GREEN SAYS ONE NATION WILL STRUGGLE TO WIN ANY UPPER HOUSE SEATS!
Last update of the night, need some sleep, as it's 25 to 1 in the morning in the east

[Lachi]

The Daylight Savings party currently has 3 in the legislative council, interestingly.

[Lachi]

They actually only have one; for some reason the ABC are counting two Shooters members as Daylight Savings for some reason.

No One Nation at this point; they are close in at least one region though.

Antony green doesn't expect that One Nation will win any seats at all in either house.

[Lachi]

No matter what you think of the results, the LC is an absolute clusterf**k

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL PREDICTION: As of 9:44 PM AWST

LABOR: 12 (+1)
LIBERAL: 8 (-8)
GREENS: 3 (+1)
NATIONAL: 3 (-2)
DAYLIGHT SAVING PARTY: 2
FLUORIDE FREE WA: 1
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS: 1
UNDECIDED: 6

[Lachi]

Labor wins safe-liberal seat of Bunbury with a 21.7% swing against the liberals.

Apparently not a safe-liberal seat after all!

looks like it's at a 23.4 swing

AS OF 8:00 AM AWST (11:00 AM AEDT)
GAINS:
LIBERAL-LABOR: Balcatta, Belmont, Bicton, Bunbury, Burns Beach, Collie-Preston, Darling Range, Forrestfield, Kalamunda, Morely, Mount Lawley, Perth, Southern River, Swan hills, Waneroo, West Swan

NATIONAL-LIBERAL: Kalgoorlie

SEATS IN DOUBT:
Dawesville (Lib +1.6)
Geraldton: (Lib +0.8 )
Jandakot:  (Lab +0.1)
Joondalup:(Lab +0.5)
Kingsley:   (Lab +0.
Murray-Wellington: (Lab +1.1)
Pilbara:     (Lab +1.4) (WTF!)

Currently Won:
LAB: 36
LIB: 11
NAT: 5

PREDICTION:
LAB: 40
LIB: 14
NAT: 5

[Lachi]

Current predicted Legislative Council:
LAB:  15 (+4) (only 3 seats away from having 50% in the upper house)
LIB:   9   (-7)
NAT:  4    (-1)
GRN: 3    (+1)
Daylight Saving Party: 1 (New)
Fluoride Free WA: 1 (New)
Liberal Democrats: 1 (New)
One Nation: 1 (New)
Shooters, Fishers, Famers: 1 (-1)

[Lachi]

8:30 PM AEDT update

LA
Won: 67.3% counted
LAB: 36
LIB: 11
NAT: 5

Prediction
LAB: 41
LIB: 13
NAT: 5

LC
Prediction:
LAB: 14
LIB: 10
NAT: 4
GRN: 3
ON: 2
SFF: 1
LD: 1

The upper will be hard to deal with, but not as hard as the Victorian upper house, which is such a disaster and mish-mash of parties of conflicting ideologies they may as well just dissolve it.

[Lachi]

I can make a rough Google earth one when I get home.

[Lachi]

UPDATE: 9:42 AM AEDT

Currently won:
Lab: 38
Lib: 12
Nat: 5
In Doubt: 4

PREDICTION:
LAB: 41
LIB: 13
NAT: 5

[Lachi]

MAPS!
Color code:
Red: LAB (lighter red=Gain)
Aqua-ish: LIB
Light Green: NAT
White: In Doubt

PERTH AND SOUTH-WEST: https://gyazo.com/148d6fb87e29e5734baa87d33dbdd5ac
RURAL WA: https://gyazo.com/b9169288973c91aa5967443b4f485fb2