Google Surveys Polling Megathread: MO - McCaskill +8 over Wagner

[The Other Castro]

Since nobody is polling Senate races at the moment, I created a Google Survey poll for the one in Missouri. This is the last Google poll I can do for now, but I felt like making a megathread for these types of polls in case anyone else feels like sponsoring one without clogging up this board. Here's my Missouri poll:

If the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Missouri were held today, who would you vote for given the following candidates?

Claire McCaskill (Democratic Party) - 34%
Ann Wagner (Republican Party) - 26%
Undecided - 40%

Poll with 333 responses conducted over 2/6-2/9. There was a fourth option titled "I will not vote in Missouri", and the above numbers are the results after that fourth option was factored out.

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=gcdxkl7yww455nnzjsaksbxaci

More information on these types of polls can be found here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=257326.0

[Blackacre]

Interesting

[jamestroll]

Hush. I don't believe in Google consumer polls.

@mttreasurer if McCaskill wins are you going to accept the results or personally contest them?

I wish I knew the results of a lot of races right now but that's why we hold elections every two years.

[jamestroll]

And yes I made a Missouri Senate poll also just for fun. Got similar results. I wish Google surveys let you do specific Congressional districts as I wanted to poll Siffton vs various Republicans in Mo 02 but I can not.

Fwiw most people I know are meh on McCaskill and on a wait and see approach. This includes my dad who worships Trump.

[The Other Castro]

Hush. I don't believe in Google consumer polls.

@mttreasurer if McCaskill wins are you going to accept the results or personally contest them?

I wish I knew the results of a lot of races right now but that's why we hold elections every two years.

Any poll this early out even from reputable pollsters isn't going to be too helpful, but it's better than nothing and nice to have some kind of baseline for discussion in the meantime.

[jamestroll]

Hush. I don't believe in Google consumer polls.

@mttreasurer if McCaskill wins are you going to accept the results or personally contest them?

I wish I knew the results of a lot of races right now but that's why we hold elections every two years.

Any poll this early out even from reputable pollsters isn't going to be too helpful, but it's better than nothing and nice to have some kind of baseline for discussion in the meantime.

I'll try to run one for Kander v Wagner.

What you said is true.

[andrew_c]

The number of undecideds is so high that this poll doesn't really mean much.

[The Arizonan]

@TheRealDonaldTrump: Fake polls show ultraliberal @McCaskill defeating patriot Ann Wagner in 2018 Senate Election. Sad!

[Sven]

Hopefully this can be confirmed by a poll that doesn't suck.

[Associate Justice PiT]

The number of undecideds is so high that this poll doesn't really mean much.

     Polls this early in the cycle don't mean much anyway. I think McCaskill is underrated as a candidate, but this doesn't really prove anything.

[jamestroll]

The number of undecideds is so high that this poll doesn't really mean much.

     Polls this early in the cycle don't mean much anyway. I think McCaskill is underrated as a candidate, but this doesn't really prove anything.

Yes. But I do fear if McCaskill wins there will be riots and protests across the country from the GOP.

[The Other Castro]

The number of undecideds is so high that this poll doesn't really mean much.

     Polls this early in the cycle don't mean much anyway. I think McCaskill is underrated as a candidate, but this doesn't really prove anything.

Yes. But I do fear if McCaskill wins there will be riots and protests across the country from the GOP.

The biggest riot you'll see is a group of some Republicans in an office quietly shaking their fists.

[Xing]

Yeah, it's hard to conclude anything this early, but Republicans certainly shouldn't be counting her out this early.

[peterthlee]

In reality, I bet the anti-incumbent turnout machine will make McCaskill edge out by 1 point.
You might laugh at this by November 2018.
(I also bet Donnelly and Heitkamp will squeak by, and Heller being thrown out by 1 to 2 pp)

[MT Treasurer]

I feel like this is a little relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248760.0

[jamestroll]

That's my point internet polling has not really evolved to be credible yet.

[Cynthia]

I feel like this is a little relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248760.0

If I recall correctly, Clinton is leading national average by like 8 points at that point.

[The Other Castro]

I feel like this is a little relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248760.0

At a time when Clinton was leading by a fair amount, it's quite possible Kander had a lead of a few points (putting +7 within the margin of error). Also, I'd like to note that that poll was not one I conducted but one posted in the 538 polling database from someone else.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, I know. Of course this all doesn't tell us anything at this point, especially with high number of undecideds.

All I can say is I don't think McCaskill is as safe as people here think she is. She's not very popular, way to the left of her state and doesn't even have the charisma that Kander had. Just because Trump is president that doesn't mean Democrats will win every single Senate race in 2018.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I know. Of course this all doesn't tell us anything at this point, especially with high number of undecideds.

All I can say is I don't think McCaskill is as safe as people here think she is. She's not very popular, way to the left of her state and doesn't even have the charisma that Kander had. Just because Trump is president that doesn't mean Democrats will win every single Senate race in 2018.

You do like constructing strawmen don't you?

[MT Treasurer]

You do like constructing strawmen don't you?

Sometimes, yeah, but not in this case. I've actually seen several people here and on other sites suggest that Republicans shouldn't bother with MO because a Republican is president, McCaskill is always underestimated and some nonsense like that. Just look at the "Your predictions" thread - quite a few posters are predicting a Democratic takeover of the Senate and the House or a Democratic gain of 1-2 seats in the Senate 2018. It is also generally the case that when supporters of a candidate use the "<insert name of Senator I like> is always underestimated" argument, that person is in big trouble. But we'll see who gets it right in Nov. 2018.

Anyway, if this poll is accurate and McCaskill wins by close to 10 points, the MO GOP should just disband or die. I've rarely seen a more incompetent state party.

[heatcharger]

^^ Well, she has been underestimated in the past, but it's a small sample size to work with, and for all we know she could be on track to getting Blanched, but it's too early to tell.

I think once Dave puts up the 2018 predictions, you'll see that the consensus on Atlas is that the Generic R is favored in MO, ND, and IN, and that a vast majority of posters think Republicans will have a net gain in seats. Then maybe you'll shut up about how allegedly every Democrat on here thinks that McCaskill is unbeatable.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't doubt that red state Democrats are generally in much better shape than blue state Republicans because of retail politics, the nature of their states, low-info voters in red states, etc. It's just that I don't think that the party that's not in the White House is basically guaranteed to defend all their incumbents and win virtually every competitive state. That didn't happen in 2010 and 2014 either, so I'm not sure why that's such a controversial thing to say. If the Class 3 Senators had been up for reelection in 2014, Democrats still would have picked up 2 seats despite it being an Obama midterm, for example.

Republicans will absolutely find some ways to lose winnable races, so I'm not taking any race for granted, not even a special election in freaking Kansas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton Dems like Claire McCaskill; Jon Tester; and Tammy Baldwin are in better position to win now. There is gonna be buyers remorse now that Trump is prez and the stop of repeal of Obamacare is well underway.

[Figueira]

Regardless of what Google polls say, I'd call this Tossup, Tilt R.