What states are the most/least in favor of free trade?

[AGA]

What states in the US are most likely to oppose free trade deals, and which states are most likely to support them? Another way to phrase this question is, if the country could have a nationwide referendum to leave NAFTA, somewhat analogous to Brexit, what would the map look like?

I assume that this map would bear little resemblance to those of recent presidential elections because recently, a lot of Republicans have turned against free trade while many Democrats now support it.

[King of Kensington]

Michigan and Pennsylvania must be pretty up there for anti-free trade.

Pro-free trade, Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut and Colorado are probably more pro-free trade than average. 

[Thunderbird is the word]

Michigan and Pennsylvania must be pretty up there for anti-free trade.

Pro-free trade, Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut and Colorado are probably more pro-free trade than average. 

I wouldn't put Connecticut up there. If you look at places like Bridgeport, Waterbury and the rural parts of the state they suffered heavy manufacturing loses due to globalization.

[Goldwater]

Eh, maybe something like this?:

More in favor of free trade/globalization
More opposed to free trade/globalization

[RINO Tom]

Eh, maybe something like this?:

More in favor of free trade/globalization
More opposed to free trade/globalization

I'd say this is about right, but maybe add the Plains states and Idaho to the free trade column?  I also never really saw Tennessee or South Carolina as protectionist places whatsoever.  Anywho, I'll also suggest that a large majority of Americans don't have strong feelings.  I mean, in 2009, Republican voters were much more in favor of free trade than Democratic voters, but if you chuck Barrack Obama's name onto a trade deal and put it all over the news, you will naturally see those numbers move.

[Goldwater]

Eh, maybe something like this?:

More in favor of free trade/globalization
More opposed to free trade/globalization

I'd say this is about right, but maybe add the Plains states and Idaho to the free trade column?  I also never really saw Tennessee or South Carolina as protectionist places whatsoever.  Anywho, I'll also suggest that a large majority of Americans don't have strong feelings.  I mean, in 2009, Republican voters were much more in favor of free trade than Democratic voters, but if you chuck Barrack Obama's name onto a trade deal and put it all over the news, you will naturally see those numbers move.

Yeah, most people probably don't have strong feelings about trade. Also, I actually thought I made Tennessee and South Carolina green, so those two were mistakes.

[Nyvin]

Massachusetts would be in favor of free trade,  they have tons of high tech industries and Research universities that benefit from it.   The rest of New England would probably hate it though. 

[Goldwater]

So, maybe closer to this?

I kind of feel like this map might be overestimating the support for free trade, though I'm not quite sure which green states should be red if that's the case...

[Gass3268]

So, maybe closer to this?

I kind of feel like this map might be overestimating the support for free trade, though I'm not quite sure which green states should be red if that's the case...

Looking at a pure state level, this makes sense. However, when you think of places like Philadelphia, Upstate New York, Chicago, Twin Cities, Memphis, etc. it is becomes much less clear.

[NOVA Green]

So, maybe closer to this?

I kind of feel like this map might be overestimating the support for free trade, though I'm not quite sure which green states should be red if that's the case...

I would put Oregon possibly into the opposition category....

https://www.democracyforamerica.com/site/page/new-polling-oregonian-opposition-to-trans-pacific-partnership-fast-track-au

[Goldwater]

So, maybe closer to this?

I kind of feel like this map might be overestimating the support for free trade, though I'm not quite sure which green states should be red if that's the case...

I would put Oregon possibly into the opposition category....

https://www.democracyforamerica.com/site/page/new-polling-oregonian-opposition-to-trans-pacific-partnership-fast-track-au

Huh, interesting. Portland struck me as a place that would generally be welcoming to globalization, but I guess that's not the case.

[Boston Bread]

The above map would represent a slight lead in favor of free trade nationally. I think the current situation looks more like this:

[NOVA Green]

So, maybe closer to this?

I kind of feel like this map might be overestimating the support for free trade, though I'm not quite sure which green states should be red if that's the case...

I would put Oregon possibly into the opposition category....

https://www.democracyforamerica.com/site/page/new-polling-oregonian-opposition-to-trans-pacific-partnership-fast-track-au

Huh, interesting. Portland struck me as a place that would generally be welcoming to globalization, but I guess that's not the case.

Well, Oregon is more than just Portland, and as I have noted on my thread involving the 2016 Presidential Election returns in timber mill communities throughout the state unfair trade competition from China is widely seen as one of the major reasons for a dramatic increase in pulp/paper and plywood mill closures throughout the state over the past few years. In fact Clinton's advocacy for TPP and Trump's opposition likely cost her dearly in many of these communities, as well as in similar parts of SW Washington State.

Within the Liberal cities of the state, the critique of "Free" Trade tends to come from the Left, that see the way in which this agreements have been negotiated as detrimental to both labor and environmental standards globally as part of a "race to the bottom".

Even in the Tech sector, there are many skilled engineers, software developers, and cleanroom manufacturing Techs, that have seen how the Multinational Companies that employ them have exploited loopholes and effectively abandoned communities while shipping huge numbers of jobs overseas. One Tech company that I worked for went from 9,000 direct employees at one facility alone in Oregon back in '96 to barely 2,000 today, and was even designated a site by the FTA in the 2000s where this had happened directly because the employer shut down manufacturing lines in the United States to open them up in new low wage countries.

Washington State is also iffy on "Free Trade"... if you scroll down about halfway through 63% favor more protectionist trade policies.

http://crosscut.com/2017/01/wa-more-conservative-and-more-divided-than-you-think/

[RINO Tom]

^ Yeah, I think a lot of us (including me) tend to think of Washington and Oregon and California as so socially liberal that THAT alone is why they are so Democratic, but they really are to the left economically, at least in their population centers.  I know WA has like no sales tax or something, but it's not exactly a libertarian paradise, haha.  The stereotypical Starbucks liberal might be snooty about cultural stuff, but he/she is ABSOLUTELY an economic justice warrior, as well.

[dpmapper]

As someone above said, corn/wheat states would generally be pro-trade.  That's Kansas and Nebraska at the very least, probably the Dakotas as well.  Minnesota and Illinois have some farmers plus a dominant globally-oriented city that isn't overrun by far-left trade critics (at least not like Portland is), so they might be green as well.  In contrast, I'd say a state like North Carolina would be more protectionist (Jesse Helms was a big critic due to the textile industry, IIRC).

[muon2]

IL is the number 1 producer of soybeans and the number 2 producer of corn in the US. Almost 50% of the grain grown in IL is for export. IL is the number 1 manufacturer of processed food products, including international giants like ADM. Overall IL ranks #3 in the US as an exporter of ag commodities to other countries, totaling nearly $10 billion a year. IL is also a large exporter of ag and related equipment as home to John Deere and Caterpillar. Navistar started out as International Harvester and though it sold off the farm equipment division, it has a truck and engine presence throughout the world. Boeing is headquartered in Chicago, too.

Free trade is critical to IL. Color us green.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Eh, maybe something like this?:

More in favor of free trade/globalization
More opposed to free trade/globalization

This looks more like a map of states you like and states you don't like.

Minnesota is extremely dependent on free trade since it has a disproportionately large corporate presence... and those corporations have a strong global presence.  (Think Cargill, General Mills, 3M, or even Carlson Companies which owns the Radisson Hotels brand).  

You might erroneously think the "Iron Range" somehow represents attitudes in Minnesota.. but you're talking about like 50,000 people in a state of 5.5 million.

If it were up to a referendum, the reality would bear itself out:  Protectionism would gut the state's economy.

[Mr. Morden]

This poll might help speak to this question:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/republicans-especially-trump-supporters-see-free-trade-deals-as-bad-for-u-s/

[Goldwater]

Eh, maybe something like this?:

More in favor of free trade/globalization
More opposed to free trade/globalization

This looks more like a map of states you like and states you don't like.

Er, not really? If it was, Alaska and Wyoming would certainly be red, while New Mexico and Louisiana would be green.

As, for the rest of your post, I would assume that you have more knowledge on the subject of Minnesota than me, so I won't even try to argue with you becasue you are probably right. TBH, I was really just going with the logic that the Midwest seems to usually be the most protectionist part of the country, this whole map was just blind guesses without that much thought put into them.

[Goldwater]

So, based on people's comments here, I think I am seeing a few main issues in my guesses

1. I am overestimating the correlation between large/tech cities and support for free trade
2. I am underestimating the support for trade in certain types of rural areas.
3. I probably have too many sates overall as supporting free trade

With those in mind, attempt number three.

[NOVA Green]

So, based on people's comments here, I think I am seeing a few main issues in my guesses

1. I am overestimating the correlation between large/tech cities and support for free trade
2. I am underestimating the support for trade in certain types of rural areas.
3. I probably have too many sates overall as supporting free trade

With those in mind, attempt number three.

Pretty good map overall, and I believe I forgot to thank you for starting this thread....

I agree with the comments on the "Grain Belt" of the outer Midwest.... this is similar to parts of Washington and Oregon (That only have a small number of grain farmers) where agriculture has been a net beneficiary of increased access to Asian markets in particular....

Montana might also fall into that category since the Eastern portion is closer to Western ND/SD than elsewhere, but honestly that is just a guess...

Now if we look at dairy country, it's actually kind of interesting since outside of VT, places in Wisconsin and a few well known dairy counties and related precincts in Oregon swung heavily Trump (Tillamook and Coos in particular), despite the dairy industry taking issues with attacks on TPP, since expansion to Asian markets is seen a positive scenario, considering the surplus of dairy in the US market and increasing demand in Asia....

I'll let others address that item, but I did find the swings in dairy country curious, and actually wonder how much of that was a backlash against Clinton's "flip-flop" on TPP vs the consistency of Trump's message.... IDK....

Mr Morden also raised an interesting point regarding Illinois.... however considering that Chicago well outnumbers the rural farm areas, not to mention the factory towns of the "War Zone" around Springfield (Nicknamed after a big strike in the mid '90s in the factory towns against Cat and a few other companies trying to outsource manufacturing to Mexico after NAFTA), and the "Labor and Environmental standards" liberals in the Windy City or Chi-Town, I'm not convinced that we can move IL to the "Free Trade" column IMHO....

This is an issue where attitudes have changed rapidly over the past 5-10 years in many communities for many reasons, but my personal opinion is that over time, many individuals are seeing the negative impacts of MFN in their own communities, and have felt that neither political party has been addressing the issue and both are in the pockets of the big companies running the rigged system.

[Intell]

Something like this.

[SATW]

It really depends on different segments in each state.

Like, in New York: Upstate and Western New York are almost certainly against free trade (or at least feel more negatively towards it) then, say, NYC or Long Island or Westchester county (I think the yuppies, rich peeps/wall-street types in Manhattan and the hipsters and younger families in Brooklyn outweigh the Union members and law-and-order types, which creates a better situation for pro-free trade advocates).

In North Carolina as well, I could see there being a big divide between urban and rural areas. Remember: NC used to be the hub of the textile industry. While it is not anymore, I'm sure a lot of people in Eastern NC may be more suspicious of it then not while Charlotte/Raleigh/Winston-Salem and Greensboro are much more pro-free trade.



Interesting graphic from the Heritage Foundation showing how NC's congressional delegation voted on free trade agreements/bills.

http://www.heritage.org/trade/report/trade-and-prosperity-the-50-states-the-case-north-carolina (full article).

David Price was the ONLY member of NC's house delegation to vote AYE on all of them. He has in the past, or currently, represented/represents parts of Raleigh/Chapel Hill and parts of Durham (the whiter areas).

[Goldwater]

So, based on people's comments here, I think I am seeing a few main issues in my guesses

1. I am overestimating the correlation between large/tech cities and support for free trade
2. I am underestimating the support for trade in certain types of rural areas.
3. I probably have too many sates overall as supporting free trade

With those in mind, attempt number three.

Pretty good map overall, and I believe I forgot to thank you for starting this thread....

Well, that thanks would be misplaced, since I didn't start this thread, I just kind of hijacked it.

[RINO Tom]

Best guess.  10 Clinton states and 16 Trump states.

I'll go ahead and say, though, that the only ones I'm sure about are the Plains states and corn belt being in favor and the MI-OH-KY-WV-PA region being against.