Your non trolling 2018 Predictions

[Nyvin]

Michigan is the most obvious big prize that should be Democratic-leaning takeover at the gubernatorial level. Then I'd say there's an outside chance at D's gaining a trifecta in Virginia over the course of 2017-19. That'd be YUGE. Then FL-Gov and OH-Gov. If D's win those races, they have a good shot at winning most of the row offices which is great for grooming future candidates; also Ohio's row officers play big roles in redistricting. Tom Wolf winning reelection and D's narrowing the margins in the legislature is essential to break that gerrymander so that the Brady machine in Philly doesn't break off in too great of numbers to side with R's. And winning back the Governorships of MD and IL so they don't lose any seats there in redistricting

Maryland isn't too much of an issue if Democrats can maintain supermajorities. Illinois will be a big problem if Democrats can't win back the governorship or supermajorities in the IL Legislature. PA is the most likely move from R to neutral. In a neutral map, I could see 2-4 seats flipping. If Ohio and Michigan go to the courts, that's probably another at least net 5 gain for Democrats.

Haha. No way!

If necessary, and it probably won't be, we will override a veto on Pennsylvania congressional redistricting.

Your dying party is bigly screwed! We have the TRUMP card. There are 2 white Philly hacks holding congressional districts, despite the lack of population to support those districts. All we have to do is threaten to put blacks in Bob Brady's district, thus forcing a primary upon him, and he will squeal. Then he and his fellow legislators will vote for veto override on the congressional map.

Alternatively, we can shift the population of the 13th over to Montgomery County, and thus forcing Brendan Boyle into a vicious primary against another white liberal, and he won't want that one bit. One possible white liberal is Chelsea Clinton's mother in law.

WTF...?   PA-1 is already 46% black and Brady regularly gets 80%+ of the vote there in general elections and hasn't had a competitive primary in ages,  besides by 2022 he'll be, what?  78 years old?   I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone by then.   

And PA-1. PA-2, and PA-13 actually all have above average population for Pennsylvania districts,  PA-5, PA-9, and PA-17 are the under-populated ones.

http://www.census.gov/mycd/

Your plan with PA-13 is goofy as hell too and makes no sense,  Boyle doesn't have enough sway to force a veto override for one thing,  And there's no reason he doesn't face a primary where he is now,  he was only elected in 2014, after the district was drawn!

You really need to stop spouting so much nonsense on this forum.

[krazen1211]

Michigan is the most obvious big prize that should be Democratic-leaning takeover at the gubernatorial level. Then I'd say there's an outside chance at D's gaining a trifecta in Virginia over the course of 2017-19. That'd be YUGE. Then FL-Gov and OH-Gov. If D's win those races, they have a good shot at winning most of the row offices which is great for grooming future candidates; also Ohio's row officers play big roles in redistricting. Tom Wolf winning reelection and D's narrowing the margins in the legislature is essential to break that gerrymander so that the Brady machine in Philly doesn't break off in too great of numbers to side with R's. And winning back the Governorships of MD and IL so they don't lose any seats there in redistricting

Maryland isn't too much of an issue if Democrats can maintain supermajorities. Illinois will be a big problem if Democrats can't win back the governorship or supermajorities in the IL Legislature. PA is the most likely move from R to neutral. In a neutral map, I could see 2-4 seats flipping. If Ohio and Michigan go to the courts, that's probably another at least net 5 gain for Democrats.

Haha. No way!

If necessary, and it probably won't be, we will override a veto on Pennsylvania congressional redistricting.

Your dying party is bigly screwed! We have the TRUMP card. There are 2 white Philly hacks holding congressional districts, despite the lack of population to support those districts. All we have to do is threaten to put blacks in Bob Brady's district, thus forcing a primary upon him, and he will squeal. Then he and his fellow legislators will vote for veto override on the congressional map.

Alternatively, we can shift the population of the 13th over to Montgomery County, and thus forcing Brendan Boyle into a vicious primary against another white liberal, and he won't want that one bit. One possible white liberal is Chelsea Clinton's mother in law.

WTF...?   PA-1 is already 46% black and Brady regularly gets 80%+ of the vote there in general elections and hasn't had a competitive primary in ages,  besides by 2022 he'll be, what?  78 years old?   I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone by then.  

And PA-1. PA-2, and PA-13 actually all have above average population for Pennsylvania districts,  PA-5, PA-9, and PA-17 are the under-populated ones.

http://www.census.gov/mycd/

Your plan with PA-13 is goofy as hell too and makes no sense,  Boyle doesn't have enough sway to force a veto override for one thing,  And there's no reason he doesn't face a primary where he is now,  he was only elected in 2014, after the district was drawn!

You really need to stop spouting so much nonsense on this forum.

Check your math again for facts, and check out what happened in 2011 with these districts. And take a look at who supported our maps.

Hint: Your very first statement describes the prior decade's PA-01, which Mr. Bob Brady did not like even one little bit!

I can't say I didn't warn you! I will also just let you know that when a state loses a district, the remainder will have to expand to the new threshold, so any theory of 'above average' population compared to the other districts (which also have to expand) is rather bizarre.


For the record, I would point out that we passed Congressional redistricting with a veto proof majority in the Pennsylvania House. And back then we had fewer seats in our party.

[publicunofficial]

Krazen says "we" like he actually did anything to pass those maps besides s**tpost on political forums.

[SCNCmod]

When you think about how low mid-term turnout rates are (often below 30%)... the number of Dems attending town halls should scare some Republicans.  Because if ppl will show up to town halls.. they'll certainly show up to midterm elections.

Also- repealing Obamacare gives some voters a reason to show up to midterms.

Consider a state like Arizona... where republicans usually win by around 100K voters... then consider in Arizona 336K ppl gain access to medicaid via obamacare.

I have always thought Jeff Flake would be safe in AZ... but I'm starting to rethink this... based on low midterm turnouts & obamacare repeal.

This is likely to have an even bigger effect on some of the Republican held house districts.

[Virginiá]

For the record, I would point out that we passed Congressional redistricting with a veto proof majority in the Pennsylvania House. And back then we had fewer seats in our party.

When was that? Because PA has had a Republican Gov. during the last 2 redistricting periods. If Wolf holds his office, that changes things for Democrats.

Not to mention the GOP is effectively locked out of the next state legislative redistricting commission since Democrats built up a large majority on the State Supreme Court. That gives Republicans little leverage over their Democratic colleagues, and I'd say it is more likely you guys attempt to do gerrymandering reform now that you are on the other end of the barrel.

[Devout Centrist]

Now?! I have no f**king clue. But sure, why not?
Senate: D+2 - R+4
House: D+5 - D+47
Gubernatorial: D+2 - D+11

I will bet the numbers fall somewhere within this range, but otherwise, I have no idea.

[Rjjr77]

So early but here we go
House- Ds gain 9
Senate- Rs gain 4
Governors- Ds gain NJ, MI, ME, NM.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's will win Democratic governorship in IL with Chris Kennedy

[Rjjr77]

D's will win Democratic governorship in IL with Chris Kennedy

As of right now I'd say they won't. Kennedy has a primary and Rauner has 50 million.

[Rjjr77]

D's will win Democratic governorship in IL with Chris Kennedy

As of right now I'd say they won't. Kennedy has a primary and Rauner has 50 million.

President Hillary Clinton says hi.

Yeah, no comparison, Clinton had a primary, Rauner doesn't. Rauner has a huge financial advantage over Kennedy, incumbency, and he can point to Madigan as the reason for the gridlock.

I'm not saying Rauner is going to run away with it, but as of today he's the favorite.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kennedy will win because Trump is gonna repeal Obamacare next year and it is popular in states like CA, IL, and NY.  With the heavy Latino population and Blacks.  As a Catholic and someone who is connected with the Daley's, he will carry the collar counties against Rauner that he did so well in against Quinn. 

Rauner is the underdog.

[ShadowRocket]

My tentative guess:

The Democrats pick up around 15-20 seats in the House.  I think they have a shot to take back the majority, considering historical precedence and Trump likely still being unpopular, but I think the GOP's structural advantages will probably save them at the end of the day.

I don't think there will be huge change from the current party make-up in regards to the Senate. I'm guessing Trump will be unpopular enough for the Democrats to minimize their losses to 1-3 seats, while being able to counteract those loses somewhat by picking up seats in NV and AZ. The GOP will hold on there.

I don't have a number at the moment in terms of pick ups, but I think the Governorship are where the Dems will have the most success.

[Skill and Chance]

House: D+25-35, narrow D majority

Senate: R+1-2

I would have this at R+10-12 if Clinton were president.  Republicans lost the chance to lock in a 25+ year majority.

Governors: D+6-9

R's lose NV+NM+MI+IL+FL+NH+ME+2 of MD/MA/VT+ one of AZ/GA/KS
D's lose CT and MN
AK is an R vs. I tossup

State legislatures: WA Senate, AZ Senate (possibly through a coalition/power sharing agreement), CO Senate, ME Senate, and NH House and Senate flip.  AK House coalition holds, but Democrats still need R/I votes for a majority.  All of the R low-hanging fruit have finally flipped, so pretty much all gains will be made by the D's.

[jamestroll]

Any one here noticed I did not use a number in my initial post in this thread?

[Skill and Chance]

House: D+25-35, narrow D majority

Senate: R+1-2

I would have this at R+10-12 if Clinton were president.  Republicans lost the chance to lock in a 25+ year majority.

Governors: D+6-9

R's lose NV+NM+MI+IL+FL+NH+ME+2 of MD/MA/VT+ one of AZ/GA/KS
D's lose CT and MN
AK is an R vs. I tossup

State legislatures: WA Senate, AZ Senate (possibly through a coalition/power sharing agreement), CO Senate, ME Senate, and NH House and Senate flip.  AK House coalition holds, but Democrats still need R/I votes for a majority.  All of the R low-hanging fruit have finally flipped, so pretty much all gains will be made by the D's.

And you're basing this on a random special election in Delaware where Democrats spent hundreds of thousands of dollars? lol

No, I have been expecting a modest Dem wave for 2018 since December.  Besides, the governing party losing 30 House seats and some governorships and 1-seat state legislative majorities in states Clinton won looks a lot more like "generic midterm" than "massive Dem wave."  I am hardly predicting reverse 1894 here!

[Coolface Sock #42069]

My 2018 prediction is that trolls will continue to troll.

[Ronnie]

I reserve the right to change my prediction many times, but for now:

Senate: R+2
+MO
+ND
+IN
-NV

House: D+15

[jamestroll]

As of right now:

House D+42 but it could be as low as 30 and as high as 59.
Senate: Democrats hold all their own and net gain 2. Just short of a majority.

[Maxwell]

Republicans lose either of Arizona or Nevada, but pick-up Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. (gut feeling)

[krazen1211]

For the record, I would point out that we passed Congressional redistricting with a veto proof majority in the Pennsylvania House. And back then we had fewer seats in our party.

When was that? Because PA has had a Republican Gov. during the last 2 redistricting periods. If Wolf holds his office, that changes things for Democrats.

Not to mention the GOP is effectively locked out of the next state legislative redistricting commission since Democrats built up a large majority on the State Supreme Court. That gives Republicans little leverage over their Democratic colleagues, and I'd say it is more likely you guys attempt to do gerrymandering reform now that you are on the other end of the barrel.

December 20, 2011. A veto proof majority was not required, but it did exist. You have to remember that Bob Brady wants to make sure that there aren't excess blacks in his district, and has incentive to cooperate and deliver the votes of Philadelphia Democrats. Of course, endangered Democrat Matt Cartwright also needs to preserve his district in the face of danger. We can acquire the votes to override a veto if we have to.

The reapportionment commission for the state legislature is there, but that comes after Congressional redistricting, not before.

[McGovernForPrez]

Senate: D+1, R+1

House D+20-30