Your non trolling 2018 Predictions

[jamestroll]

Use this thread to post a 2018 prediction without trolling.

Mine is:

Democrats will be able to compete in some house seats that are in single digit R pvis but the overall picture for 2018 may not be a Democratic blow out for House, Senate and Governor. For instance it is hard to find an obvious candidate for Ohio Governor right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems will take back the house with around 40 seat pickups mainly in urban and suburban areas an cut the senate to 51-49 due to either an upset in TX or a 3 way in Utah. John Morgan will win FL gov, Steve Sisolak in NV, Gavin in Cali, Jason Carter in GA, Ed Perlmutter in CO, and Gretchen Whitmer in MI. But the GOP will pick up the govs in CON and MN an win the senate races in MO and ND. Also non trolling but more bold prediction Nancy Pelosi will step down after this win due to party pressure for a young speaker to take on Trump and Tim Ryan gets his moment

[The Other Castro]

D+10-20 in House, R+0-3 in Senate.

[Blackacre]

In the House: D+5-50

In the Senate: D+2-R+4

In the States: Ds end up with a majority of Governorships and rebound in state legislatures

[Littlefinger]

D +10-20 in House

D +2--R +7 in Senate

D + 5 to 8 in Governor's Race

[Mr. Reactionary]

Most likely Republican gains in the Senate and anywhere from moderate Dem gains in the House to a couple of GOP gains in the House. Way too early to predict more.

(Going on record as someone who thought the GOP would clearly take the Senate in 2012)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

D+ 8-16 in the House

R+ 0-4 in the Senate

D+ 5-8 in governorships, and take back a few state leg. chambers.

[heatcharger]

D+ 15-25 in the House

R+ 0-5 in the Senate

D+ 5-10 in Governorships

[LabourJersey]

I know I'm going to be wrong, so I might as well be specifically wrong lol.

D+20 in the House

R+1 in the Senate

D+7 in Governors' Mansions

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Senate R+2
House D+11
Governors D+5

[Figueira]

For now: D+13 in the House, R+4 in the Senate.

Edit: that said, there are a number of House seats that I simply don't know the dynamics of enough to make a prediction; I just based that on a brief glance at the list of targets.

[Virginiá]

House: D+10 - 30
Senate: R+0 - 3
Governors: D+6-10
Legislatures: +5 - 12 chambers

That's just preliminary predictions. I'll probably adjust over the next 18 months as the environment shifts. However, given everything I've seen, I'm not inclined to believe it will get substantially better for Trump. I'm beginning to think he is fundamentally incapable of running a competent administration because he himself is flawed and largely incapable of being an effective leader, which is compounded by the fact that he scares away skilled people from White House positions, has a tendency to willingly pick less talented people who are loyalists, likes to pit them against each other, and has a hugely inflated ego that will constantly drive him to do things that result in scandal or drama. Everything he is doing is only further inflaming the opposition, and we're only a few weeks in! Imagine what happens when the GOP starts ramming through unpopular policy and Trump makes increasingly unpopular decisions that begin to diminish and disillusion his base of support.

I think one of the more underappreciated stories of 2018 might end up being the gubernatorial races. If Democrats make a decent sweep, which I think is entirely possible given how overextended the GOP is, the GOP will find themselves in a bad position for redistricting, where they are reliant on drawing rigged maps to maintain strong power in state legislatures and the House. Given long-term trends I see unfolding, I believe a strong hand in redistricting is critical to the GOP maintaining power throughout the 2020s.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Senate

Safe Dem- CA HI WA MN NJ MD CT NY NJ RI VT
Likely Dem- NM MI VA MA
Lean Dem- PA ME FL WV IL
Toss Up- MT WI OH
Lean Rep- AZ NV ND MO IN
Likely Rep-
Safe Rep- WY UT NE TX TN MS

Gov
Safe Dem- CA HI OR NY
Likely Dem- NJ RI
Lean Dem- CO NM AK VA
Toss Up- MN WI MI FL MD PA CT ME
Lean Rep- NV GA OH VT NH
Likely Rep- AZ IA MA KS SC
Safe Rep- ID WY SD NE OK TX AL AR TN

House
Likely Dem MA-9 CT-5 NY-3 NY-25 DE-1 MD-6 FL-9 OH-13 AZ-9 CA-16 CA-24 CA-36 CA-52 OR-5
Lean Dem- NH-2 NY-18 MD-6 FL-13 MI-5 IL-10 WI-3 MN-7 AZ-1 NV-4 CA-7 CA-49 OR-4
Toss Up- NH-1 PA-7 PA-8 PA-17 NJ-5 VA-10 FL-7 FL-26 TX-23 IL-17 IA-2 MN-1 MN-2 MN-8 CO-6 NV-3
Lean Rep- NY-19 NY-22 NJ-7 NJ-3 PA-6 MN-3 IL-6 KS-3 NE-2 IA-1 AZ-2 CA-10 CA-21 CA-25 WA-8
Likely Rep- ME-2 NY-1 NY-21 NY-24 NJ-11 VA-2 FL-18 FL-25 GA-6 TX-7 TX-32 MI-7 CO-3 UT-4 CA-39 CA-48

[Cynthia]

House: narrow D takeover
Senate: R+2 to D+2
Governor: D+5-10

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Rs +2 in Senate

Ds +20 in House

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

R+3 in Senate
D+15 in House
D+5 in Governors

[brucejoel99]

House: D+4-6 (if I had to guess the most likely to flip, in order: FL-26, IA-3, IL-12, IL-13, NY-26)
Senate: R-2-+5 (that is, anywhere bet. losing 2 & gaining 5)
Governors: D+5-9

[tmthforu94]

Gubernatorial: Democrats make big gains, picking up between 5-10 seats and winning back a good number of seats in legislatures. As of now, I'd predict New Mexico, Florida (barely), Illinois Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine flipping.
House: Democrats pick up 5-10 seats
Senate: Republicans gain three seats, I'll make a ridiculously early map:

[Hindsight was 2020]

I see so many people saying only single digit house gains for the dems but at the rate Trumpbis going the dems should average 30-35 seat pick ups

[publicunofficial]

House: D+10 to D+18

Senate: D+0 to R+4

Gov: D+6 to D+10

[jamestroll]

Thanks. This is better than arguing back and forth. Too early to make definite predictions at this point but this will be interesting to look back on in late 2018.

[smoltchanov]

Way to early for predictions to be even remotely true, but, as it stands right now:

Senate: R: +2-3;

House: D: +8-10;

Governors: D: +3-4;

[Sven]

House: D+25 and counting
Senate: D+1 (Nevada and Arizona fall, Republicans bring down one of Heitkamp, Donnelly, or McCaskill)
Governorships: D+8, maybe more (This is where the Republicans are really going to feel Trump's embarrassing approvals. Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Maine all fall. Kansas and Maryland are wildcards and Georgia might turn competitive, but I'm fairly sure Baker and Scott escape only mildly scathed.)

[smoltchanov]

I see so many people saying only single digit house gains for the dems but at the rate Trumpbis going the dems should average 30-35 seat pick ups

A lot of it (for me at least) is because Democrats lack obvious challengers in districts that they in theory could win, like GA-7, TX-7, CA-48, CA-45, KS-3 and a few others while there are other districts where they could instantly put in play, but only if they got their one star challenger in that given seat (think, Rudy Salas in CA-21, Newman/Quirk-Silva in CA-39, Lynwood Lewis in VA-2, Mike Rawlings in TX-32, etc.). That's a fairly tall order, even if Trump is horrifically unpopular.

Many of the districts you mentioned are anti-Trump (well-to-do, high levels of education and so on), but they are still mostly conservative (pragmatically, but  - conservative) on taxes, and economics in general. And they have ample Republican bench of last decades, while Democrats have almost nothing (or minimal). It's easier to imagine moderate Republican (say, one of state Senators or Representatives from Johnson county) elected in KS-03, then Democrat (Dennis Moore was the only one since 1958, and he was lucky to have as his first opponent an ultra-right Vince Snowbarger). These districts are diversifying and slowly moving Democratic, but it will take time. I can easily imagine many of them going Democratic in 2022-24, but i doubt about 2018...

[Lachi]

Senate : nothing to R+ 2

House: D+ 20-30

Governor: D+ 5-8 (Democrats would have a bare majority on the upper end of the prediction)

Legislatures: Democrats will make huge gains, picking up at least 6 chambers, maybe up to 15

Overall: I think that Congress will be split, with Democrats taking the house, and Republicans holding onto the Senate, with massive gains being made in the state legislatures, and in the gubernatorial races