Libertarian ticket cost Trump the popular vote.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This is why I believe Trump will win the popular vote in 2020.

The election after an election with a huge third party turnout almost always has significantly less third party turnout.

1980 - Anderson gets 7% of the vote. In 1984, I don't think third parties even got 0.7% of the vote.

1992 - Perot gets 19% of the vote. In 1996, he gets only 8%.

2000 - Nader gets 3.5% of the vote. In 2004 he barely even registers.

This makes sense because by the 2nd election everyone "knows" the incumbent already.

How do you know that the Obama voters that stayed home in 2016 won't turn out in 2020? How do you know that R's won't lose enthusiasm? How do you know that the democrat won't pick off some trump 2016 voters? etc.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No, Trump cost Trump the popular vote.

Johnson voters can be split into two groups: those who voted for him because of policy and those who did not; the second group is overwhelmingly voters who hated both Trump and Clinton.

Had Johnson not been in the race, most of group 1 would not have voted. Most group 2 voters would have found another candidate or stayed home. Jill Stein and Darryl Castle would have seen gains in support. So would Trump. But a whole lot of group 2 Johnson voters were Republicans who were never going to vote for Trump no matter what, and I'd expect that without Johnson on the ballot, a lot of those voters would have swung to Clinton, and I think Clinton would have stood to gain nearly as many votes as Trump.