2016 If Trump ran as a Democrat.

[RC (a la Frémont)]

What would happen in the primaries, and more importantly, the general election if Trump ran as a Democrat? Please discuss.

[Medal506]

I don't even think he would win the Democratic nomination. I mean we have to remember that Trump is a Republican and has been a Republican since 2009 which is almost 10 years ago. So asking what would happen if Trump ran as a Democrat is kind of like asking what would happen if Ben Carson ran as a Democrat or what would happen if Hillary Clinton ran as a Republican. The answer to both of those questions and this question is none of those three would make it. Their party wouldn't support them and none of the voters in the parties would support them

[tomhguy]

if he got through the primaries

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump/Kaine v. Rubio/Pence:


Rubio/Pence wins the popular vote by two points, but lose the electoral college.

[DPKdebator]

The following scenario assumes Trump runs a campaign virtually identical to his real one.

Trump - 334 EV
Republican - 204 EV

Give or take FL, NM, NV, MO, KY, IN, and WV.

While Trump running a campaign on his stances would be suicide in a Democratic primary, if he was the Dems' nominee 2016 would probably be a realigning election to some extent. The Republican would do better in places like the Sun Belt and win over VA, NM, CO, and NV and traditionally Democratic states (but not to the extent that it flips, unless there was a third party). Trump would outperform Clinton in the Rust Belt (duh). The Republican might win the PV, though it is most likely Trump would crush the EV.

This is the best Trump could do:

399 - 139

A close shave for Trump:

271 - 267

A lot of states are probably tipping points, though NH is probably the closest one.

The best the Republican could do:

332 - 206

[AGA]

Trump would probably get lower margins amongst very liberal Democrats but could make this up by winning a lot of white working-class Republicans. Rubio or Cruz would have probably won the Republican nomination without Trump. I'll go with Rubio.

Trump: 285, 49% of PV
Rubio: 253, 47% of PV

[Kingpoleon]

350: John Kasich/Condoleeza Rice - 52.1%
188: Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren - 44.9%
Others - 3.0%

Trump takes votes from Sanders, but the primary also lasts longer. Warren and Trump get into an intraparty fight which Obama refuses to get involved in. The lack of staunch support from Sanders and Trump hurts Hillary badly.