In what scenario could Trump win RI?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I have the feeling that RI is not impossible for Trump. If he's reasonably popular, and runs against a corporatist Dem (Cuomo) I think he could make it competitive.

[Adam the Gr8]

If he's very successful, I can see him beating someone like Kamala Harris. Ignoring a scenario where the liberal vote is split of course.


I have to admit I'm not too familiar with Rhode Island voting patterns. Is it a more working class or white collar state?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If he's very successful, I can see him beating someone like Kamala Harris. Ignoring a scenario where the liberal vote is split of course.


I have to admit I'm not too familiar with Rhode Island voting patterns. Is it a more working class or white collar state?

Blue collar, working class.

[Adam the Gr8]

I guessed correctly then.

[DPKdebator]

If he's very successful, I can see him beating someone like Kamala Harris. Ignoring a scenario where the liberal vote is split of course.


I have to admit I'm not too familiar with Rhode Island voting patterns. Is it a more working class or white collar state?

I'm not 100% familiar with RI, but it's a lot more rust belt-y than MA is, and was especially hit hard by the recession. Although it's a tiny state (wow, big surprise), it can roughly be divided into three parts: the few towns adjacent to Providence (think majority-minority medium-sized cities; went solidly for Clinton but noticeably swung and trended Republican), the interior (very rural and is a lot like adjacent parts of MA and CT; this is the part of the state that went big-time for Trump but is not desolate in population), and the coast (the "Rhode Island" most people would think of, quaint small towns and beaches; won comfortably [10-18%] by Clinton, swinging and trending was varied by town). In 2012, three towns (out of 39) in the entire state voted Republican, in 2016 this number increased to 14 towns plus a county (Kent, which includes the second largest city of Warwick). RI used to be more Democratic than MA, though the trends this year indicate it could be in play in future elections. To win Rhode Island, Trump would have to drive up margins with white voters (especially in the southern part of the state, which is whiter than Vermont) and it would help if his minority approval ratings improved (probably around 20% of the electorate in RI), which would help if not enough RI whites support him. If the economy is good in 2020, it would definitely be very easy for the Donald to win recession-battered Rhode Island.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

6% economic growth; 60%+ approval rating.

[Deblano]

I don't know about RI, but I don't think it would be out of the realm of plausibility for him to win Connecticut in a "successful Trump presidency" scenario. Trump did far better in New England than Romney in 2012.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I don't know about RI, but I don't think it would be out of the realm of plausibility for him to win Connecticut in a "successful Trump presidency" scenario. Trump did far better in New England than Romney in 2012.

Isn't CT more wealthy and suburban? I think blue collar RI would be a better fit.

[Roronoa D. Law]

He could win RI if they bus people from West Virginia on election day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He can't. Hillary won RI by a larger margin than she won New Jersey. Even in RI the township map is misleading and overstates rural areas.

[Deblano]

A Trump wins RI map would probably look something like this.



Trump/Pence: 46.90%
Clinton/Kaine: 46.41%
Johnson/Weld: 3.18%
Write-ins: 1.85%
Stein/Baraka: 1.34%
Others: 0.32%

[Xing]

It's only going to happen in the dreams of delusional Trump supporters. Seriously, the reaction to Rhode Island being somewhat closer than it was in previous elections is worse than the reaction to Hawaii after 2004. And Hawaii was significantly closer in that election.

[Deblano]

It's only going to happen in the dreams of delusional Trump supporters. Seriously, the reaction to Rhode Island being somewhat closer than it was in previous elections is worse than the reaction to Hawaii after 2004. And Hawaii was significantly closer in that election.

[Figueira]

I don't really see it. CT is more likely.

[Deblano]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?

[heatcharger]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?

Nope. If Romney could only barely crack 40%, I don't see why Kasich does a whole lot better. He would lose all the social liberals immediately.

[Figueira]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

Not everyone agrees with your pronouncements on the "new Democratic coalition."

[Deblano]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?

Nope. If Romney could only barely crack 40%, I don't see why Kasich does a whole lot better. He would lose all the social liberals immediately.

True. I know that the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee for Connecticutt, Tom Foley, was pro-choice and was in favor of maintaining the gay marriage law and was even open to the idea of raising the minimum wage, so that probably demonstrates how the CT GOP is firmly to center from the national GOP.

[heatcharger]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

What if John Kasich or some other center-right, pro-business moderate was the nominee?

Nope. If Romney could only barely crack 40%, I don't see why Kasich does a whole lot better. He would lose all the social liberals immediately.

True. I know that the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee for Connecticutt, Tom Foley, was pro-choice and was in favor of maintaining the gay marriage law and was even open to the idea of raising the minimum wage, so that probably demonstrates how the CT GOP is firmly to center from the national GOP.

Yeah, a highly disciplined Republican can win CT's governor's mansion, but even Foley had his weaknesses and ultimately was a retread.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I think he won the state minus providence, Pawtucket, east providence, and central falls. Or if not it was extremely close on the scale of NH or MI

[Figueira]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

Not everyone agrees with your pronouncements on the "new Democratic coalition."

Oh really, do you agree with actual tangible results, which show democrats winning Connecticut consistently and show that Trump massively underperformed in educated suburbs in Fairfield County?

1. Democrats have also won RI consistently, by a bigger margin, so I'm not sure of your point. I don't expect CT to vote for Trump; it's just slightly more possible than RI.
2. CT≠Fairfield County. The state as a whole actually swung and trended towards Trump.

[DPKdebator]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

Not everyone agrees with your pronouncements on the "new Democratic coalition."

Oh really, do you agree with actual tangible results, which show democrats winning Connecticut consistently and show that Trump massively underperformed in educated suburbs in Fairfield County?

1. Democrats have also won RI consistently, by a bigger margin, so I'm not sure of your point. I don't expect CT to vote for Trump; it's just slightly more possible than RI.
2. CT≠Fairfield County. The state as a whole actually swung and trended towards Trump.

Although Clinton won RI by a larger margin than in CT, the former state swung (and trended) much harder for the Donald (~27% margin in 2012 to ~13% margin in 2016) and I would say that there's a roughly equal chance of both going Republican in 2020 (CT is more affluent and slightly less white than RI).

[Figueira]

Everyone saying CT is a possibility is absurd.  CT has one of the highest education levels in the country coupled with a large and growing minority vote share.  CT is the prototype for the new democratic coalition.  Fairfield County is a perfect example of this: large urban minority base in Bridgeport and Stamford coupled with highly educated and socially liberal suburbs like Westport.

Not everyone agrees with your pronouncements on the "new Democratic coalition."

Oh really, do you agree with actual tangible results, which show democrats winning Connecticut consistently and show that Trump massively underperformed in educated suburbs in Fairfield County?

1. Democrats have also won RI consistently, by a bigger margin, so I'm not sure of your point. I don't expect CT to vote for Trump; it's just slightly more possible than RI.
2. CT≠Fairfield County. The state as a whole actually swung and trended towards Trump.

Although Clinton won RI by a larger margin than in CT, the former state swung (and trended) much harder for the Donald (~27% margin in 2012 to ~13% margin in 2016) and I would say that there's a roughly equal chance of both going Republican in 2020 (CT is more affluent and slightly less white than RI).

I don't agree with the premise that current demographic trends are going to continue.

[BaldEagle1991]

If he's very successful, I can see him beating someone like Kamala Harris. Ignoring a scenario where the liberal vote is split of course.


I have to admit I'm not too familiar with Rhode Island voting patterns. Is it a more working class or white collar state?

Blue collar, working class.

I never knew that one. Thought it was some white collar state.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If he's very successful, I can see him beating someone like Kamala Harris. Ignoring a scenario where the liberal vote is split of course.


I have to admit I'm not too familiar with Rhode Island voting patterns. Is it a more working class or white collar state?

Blue collar, working class.

I never knew that one. Thought it was some white collar state.

It's still above the national average for college-degree holders, though not as high as Connecticut and Massachusetts.