One thing that I believe is often ignored is the reality of the 25% of the American-Muslim population that are not voluntary immigrants to America, but African-American Muslims that converted to Islam, particularly between 1930 and 1970....
Although, many mainline Muslims do not consider organizations like the Nation of Islam (NOI) and some of the offshoots to subscribe to the true core tenants of the Muslim faith, there are still a large number of African-American Muslims that are part of the mainstream Islamist Mosques and Community Centers that define the vast majority of the Muslim community in the United States....
There are only 3.3 Million Muslims living in the United States, of whom approximately 25 % of Shiite Muslims, the vast majority being Iranian-Americans that fled the oppression of the Iranian Revolution (LA being ground zero), that targeted both the Left and Monarchists alike, but despite significant differences on economic policy both share a relatively secular world-view.
So politically, African-American Muslims tend to vote relatively similarly to the community at large, although in both the early origins of the Black Muslim community during the Great Depression (Think NOI and Malcolm X), and then later on during the rebellions of the "Black Intifada" of the late '60s/early '70s, there was a major rejection of "establishment politics", with a drive towards self-sufficiency and self-determination....
If anyone is interested, I can take you through the community of West Dayton, Ohio, a 20 minute drive from where I went to college back in the early 1990s.... This is the heart of "Black" Dayton, Ohio, like most of the state discrimination in employment and housing existed for decades, even following the passage of the Civil Rights Voting Act.....
I suspect that the giant Red, Black, and Green flag is still likely flying tall and proud on a major neighborhood thoroughfare from Khandi's house, who was a proud former member of the Republic of New Afrika.... the chickens are still likely in the backyard, and pretty sure that she's still into alternative medicine and tinctures....
Thinking 3rd Party candidates likely performed extremely well among the African-American Muslim Community, considering that the movement to its core rejected the concept of selling-out the fundamental core values to either major established political party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_New_AfrikaRegarding immigrant Muslim-American populations, Shiite Americans tend to be a bit wealthier and more secular (As I mentioned above), and I believe (but could well be mistaken) that someone ran the numbers on the most heavily Iranian-American precincts in LA and we saw some major swings starting in '04, increasing in '08..... I believe we had/have a fellow Atlasian that is Iranian-American that posted on this subject way back in the days (
).
We can roll into South-Asians, and honestly IDK if Iranian-Americans are considered "South-Asians" or "Middle Eastern", but regardless the vast majority of this group are likely Indian-Americans, and to a much lesser extent Pakistani-Americans.... My general thought pattern is that Indian- Muslim Americans might likely be a bit more Democratic oriented than Pakistani-Muslim-Americans, but honestly I really can't say that this is the case at all....
Still, Indian-Americans at large have become one of the heaviest Asian-American voting blocks in the United States, so it is certainly likely that we would see similar swings of South Asian voters, regardless of "religious" affiliation....
Middle-Eastern Muslims----- So basically what the stereotypes of Muslims are in Trump's America (And arguably even back to the days of 9/11)..... Essentially, what's going on here is that Arab-Americans are being conflated with Muslim-Americans....
The largest chunk of Arab-Americans are actually from the Levant Region (Trans-Syria) encompassing the modern countries of Lebanon, Syria, and "Palestine", the majority of whom are actually Christians, like my wife's Uncle Dick, as are most of those I have met from the Levant region.
Ok---- so what do we actually know about the "Muslim-American" vote vs the "Jewish-American" vote over the past decade or so???
Has the Muslim-American vote ever been isolated to only include those from recent immigrant backgrounds, and excluded African-American Muslims?
Obviously that could make a significant difference regarding the OPs question....
Now, I believe that we have studies that show that "Arab-Americans" voted for George W. in 2000 and voted for Kerry in '04.... meanwhile, I believe we have studies that indicate that Jewish-Americans heavily backed Gore in 2000, and swung a bit towards George W. in '04 on the margins.
By 2008, it appears that both non-African-American Muslims and Jewish-Americans swung heavily towards Obama....
Not so sure about '12, but it looks like there was a minor drop-off among Jewish-Americans vs '08 for Obama, similar to most other "White ethnic" populations, but don't recall seeing much data regarding the Arab-American and Muslim-American communities....
Ok---- So 2016---- it certainly appears that there was a drop-off in voter turnout among older African-Americans, a huge defection among Millennial African-Americans towards 3rd Party candidates, especially in heavily political heartlands of the Black Resistance of the late 1960s/early 1970s (Take a peek at East Oakland for example, Detroit where the Honorable Elijah Muhammad ran some temples back in the day along with places like Philly and Cleveland).
I haven't run the numbers on Iranian-American precincts in LA, but if swings of upper-income voters towards Clinton play out within that community, '12 vs '16 numbers there was likely a large swing towards the Democratic nominee....
South Asians appear to have swung towards Clinton, but as already a heavily Democratic constituency I'm not sure how far they swung, and additionally Muslim-Americans aren't as prevalent within the Community.
Jewish-Americans certainly appear to have swung heavily against Trump, but ultimately as a traditionally strongly Democratic constituency, there is only so much room to grow, especially since heavily Orthodox communities have much less elasticity excepting a major gaffe regarding Israeli politics from either major party candidate....
Rant aside:
2016: If we include African-American Muslims..... Muslims > Jews for Dem Pres Margins
2016: If we exclude African-American Muslims.... Jews > Muslims for Dem Pres Margins
Regardless, any way you look at it, it's actually amazing that both Jewish-Americans and Muslim-Americans have just recently become the most heavily Democratic Presidential constituencies, considering how there was a huge gap in 2000 among these two American Religious Minorities....
Donald Trump has additionally expanded the map, in that now Mormon-Americans are potentially building into a 2024 flip category, if the trend towards discrimination against religious minority populations starts to become the new vogue of the Republican Presidential nominee...
