What would a Harris vs. Brown primary map look like?

[Xing]

Say that the Democratic primary ended up coming down to Kamala Harris and Sherrod Brown. What do you think the map might look like? Which states would be the most competitive?

[heatcharger]

I think it would look somewhat similar to the 2016 primary, with Brown doing better in the Rust Belt and in the Sun Belt than Sanders and with Harris doing better in the Pacific West than Clinton.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-Why would Brown win VT or lose KY and TN?

[Xing]

-Why would Brown win VT or lose KY and TN?

I'm more curious why Brown would lose PA.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-Why would Brown win VT or lose KY and TN?

I'm more curious why Brown would lose PA.

-Suburbs.

[AGA]

[Xing]

-Why would Brown win VT or lose KY and TN?

I'm more curious why Brown would lose PA.

-Suburbs.

I'm not sure he'd do that badly in the suburbs. He'd surely lose Philly itself by a lot, but I could see the suburbs being closer. Even if Harris won them narrowly, that might make the race similar to what it was in 2008, in which case I'd expect Brown to win. He'd definitely win places like Scranton.

[Ridge]

I wanna start by saying Brown will be a former Sen. by then due to Ohio going deep red.

[Hoosier_Nick]

[136or142]

Didn't Sherrod Brown say his family would leave him if he ran for President?

[Heisenberg]

[andrew_c]

[SCNCmod]

Brown wins that easily imo.  I like Harris... I'm actually not all that impressed with her (to the extent that everyone has said she has the political midas touch... which I'm not seeing at all yet).

[Hoosier_Nick]

Arkansas? Why?

[Heisenberg]

Arkansas? Why?

It's more rural and less Black than the other Southern states. I can't see the state voting for a coastal SJW over an inland populist. FWIW, in my map, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois are all within 1 to 2%.

[136or142]

But instead of offering himself up, Brown, who has campaigned on that very issue for years, said he has “zero interest” in running for higher office.

Former staffers of his note that he lacks both an ability to make sound bites and the desire to climb the ladder of success necessary to be an enthralling national candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-why-arent-progressives-begging-him-to-run-for-president/2015/01/28/f8378d9c-a63c-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html?utm_term=.d63cbd37db78

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But instead of offering himself up, Brown, who has campaigned on that very issue for years, said he has “zero interest” in running for higher office.

Former staffers of his note that he lacks both an ability to make sound bites and the desire to climb the ladder of success necessary to be an enthralling national candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-why-arent-progressives-begging-him-to-run-for-president/2015/01/28/f8378d9c-a63c-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html?utm_term=.d63cbd37db78

LOL, did whoever wrote that pay any attention tot he guy who got 45% in last year's primary?

[136or142]

But instead of offering himself up, Brown, who has campaigned on that very issue for years, said he has “zero interest” in running for higher office.

Former staffers of his note that he lacks both an ability to make sound bites and the desire to climb the ladder of success necessary to be an enthralling national candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-why-arent-progressives-begging-him-to-run-for-president/2015/01/28/f8378d9c-a63c-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html?utm_term=.d63cbd37db78

LOL, did whoever wrote that pay any attention tot he guy who got 45% in last year's primary?

I don't think Sherrod Brown wants to be President.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But instead of offering himself up, Brown, who has campaigned on that very issue for years, said he has “zero interest” in running for higher office.

Former staffers of his note that he lacks both an ability to make sound bites and the desire to climb the ladder of success necessary to be an enthralling national candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/sherrod-brown-why-arent-progressives-begging-him-to-run-for-president/2015/01/28/f8378d9c-a63c-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html?utm_term=.d63cbd37db78

LOL, did whoever wrote that pay any attention tot he guy who got 45% in last year's primary?

I don't think Sherrod Brown wants to be President.

OK, but the article seems to be giving the impression that he's not some slick charismatic figure who has been plotting his run for President for decades. If you think that means you're dead on arrival, you must not have ever noticed this guy named Bernie.

[President Johnson]

Kamala Harris
Sherrod Brown

[Devout Centrist]

Why do people have Harris losing every caucus? She probably has more enthusiasm from the younger, more likely to go to caucuses types.

[MLM]

Why do people have Harris losing every caucus? She probably has more enthusiasm from the younger, more likely to go to caucuses types.

This may be an oversimplification on my part but I would assume given how rural states with caucuses tend to be, Harris having an enthusiastic and youthful base would be cancelled out by Brown's support. Bernie was lucky to have the young voters and a sizeable portion of the rural vote and thus did so well in caucuses.

[Lief 🗽]

Not really sure why everyone here thinks Brown would win most of Bernie's voters. Harris would pick up a lot of progressive activist and youth types who supported Sanders.

[Rjjr77]

Not really sure why everyone here thinks Brown would win most of Bernie's voters. Harris would pick up a lot of progressive activist and youth types who supported Sanders.

True. And I'm not even sure why everyone thinks Harris would be a poor candidate or worse than Warren. People always talk about "identity politics" or something like that, but I definitely think she'd be stronger than Warren in a GE.

I agree she's stronger than Warren in a general (with less baggage) but shes weaker in a primary with no name id and without a nationwide fundraising apparatus

[Lief 🗽]

Not really sure why everyone here thinks Brown would win most of Bernie's voters. Harris would pick up a lot of progressive activist and youth types who supported Sanders.

True. And I'm not even sure why everyone thinks Harris would be a poor candidate or worse than Warren. People always talk about "identity politics" or something like that, but I definitely think she'd be stronger than Warren in a GE.

I agree she's stronger than Warren in a general (with less baggage) but shes weaker in a primary with no name id and without a nationwide fundraising apparatus

She doesn't need a nationwide fundraising apparatus.  There's more than enough money in California.