Who is most likely to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination? (Feb 2017)

[Mr. Morden]

Last month’s poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256434.0

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't think Warren will run, Sanders will be too old. I think though IF they run, Warren, Booker, Sanders and Franken could be top tier candidates, especially if they tap into the left-wing anger going on in the country right now, assuming it lasts well into election season.

[Medal506]

I think it will come down to Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren like it did last year with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. My guess is Booker will probably be the Democratic nominee and pick someone like Sherrod Brown as his VP

[Hoosier_Nick]

I'd say Booker for a mix of likeliness to win and likeliness to run.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Look out for Bullock he has the perfect resume to win Iowa in an upset and go on a roll

[The Other Castro]

I'd say Booker for a mix of likeliness to win and likeliness to run.

I agree with this.

[ShamDam]

It's totally up in the air, but if Bernie somehow runs, I think he gets the nomination. So I voted for him.

[Phony Moderate]

My gut says Franken, honestly.

[JGibson]

Warren.

[Bones]

Most likely it'll either be Warren or someone we don't know about yet.

[Sir Mohamed]

I have a feeling it’s probably Warren. But I hope for Kamala.

[DPKdebator]

I hope it's Warren, so that way a Republican victory or even wave is guaranteed in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the poll from way back in November:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252932.0

Huge collapse for Kamala Harris since then.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Where did people get this idea Warren has a chance? She's like Sanders, but less appealing to all.

[henster]

Gillibrand. I don't think Warren will run.

[Pericles]

Sherrod Brown. He will be a dark horse, win Iowa and New Hampshire, win the Sanders vote but do better with minorities and those who thought Sanders was unelectable, plus better in the Midwest, and then go onto beat Donald Trump fairly comfortably. At least, I hope that's what happens.

[DK_Mo82]

Sanders 30%
Cuomo 15%
Warren 15%
Brown 10%
Franken 5%
Booker 5%
H. Clinton 5%
Biden 5%
Other 10%

[Figueira]

I still think Booker is the most likely individual.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'd say Booker for a mix of likeliness to win and likeliness to run.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Look, I'm a Warren fan, but she may not even run and why would the Democrats nominate her? She is getting up there in age and I feel like she would struggle appealing to the moderate in the general.

[Mr. Morden]

Look, I'm a Warren fan, but she may not even run and why would the Democrats nominate her?

Why would the Republicans nominate Trump in 2016?  In part, because the "establishment lane" is too crowded with different choices, and so that faction of the primary electorate is split too many different ways.  Similar dynamics here.  If Warren runs, and Sanders and Brown don't, then Warren could romp among the "progressive insurgent" faction of the party, while Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Cuomo, etc. slice up the 2016 Clinton primary voters amongst themselves, giving Warren a plurality of the vote.

Sure, other candidates will try to peel off some of those Sanders 2016 primary voters.  But I'm not sure they'll be able to come across as authentic when they do so.  No matter how many times Martin O'Malley calls Trump fascist, I don't think he'll ever be the darling of the progressive wing of the party.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Look, I'm a Warren fan, but she may not even run and why would the Democrats nominate her?

Why would the Republicans nominate Trump in 2016?  In part, because the "establishment lane" is too crowded with different choices, and so that faction of the primary electorate is split too many different ways.  Similar dynamics here.  If Warren runs, and Sanders and Brown don't, then Warren could romp among the "progressive insurgent" faction of the party, while Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Cuomo, etc. slice up the 2016 Clinton primary voters amongst themselves, giving Warren a plurality of the vote.

Sure, other candidates will try to peel off some of those Sanders 2016 primary voters.  But I'm not sure they'll be able to come across as authentic when they do so.  No matter how many times Martin O'Malley calls Trump fascist, I don't think he'll ever be the darling of the progressive wing of the party.

That's true. I'm not sure many primary voters care about their ability to win, more-so just who they like.

[mgop]

idk (and idc) but biden and sanders will be like 100 yo then lol

[DK_Mo82]

Booker has a good chance to win... The SC Primary by 5 points over Bernie. There is bad blood for him with the Dem base and activists and also anyone with his record of taking money from firms that Dem primary voters hate like banks and pharma.  



(In my opinion) By 2020 the Dem voters will be out for blood and will nominate a candidate that makes Sanders 2016 look centerright.

[Liberalrocks]

Hillary Clinton