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Author Topic: What would have been your prediction a year before each election  (Read 1417 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: February 13, 2017, 09:53:19 pm »
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since 1968

Here's Mine

1968:


Romney/Reagan 289
LBJ/Humphrey 249

1972:



Nixon/Agnew 439
Muskie/Jackson 99

1976:



idaho should be blue
Henry Jackson/Birch Bayh 448
Gerald Ford/Nelson Rockerfeller 90


1980:



Reagan/Baker 304
Kennedy/Bayh 234

1984:



Reagan/Bush 363
Mondale/Hart 175


1988:


Gore/Glenn 287
Bush/Dole 251




Bush/Quayle 433
Brown/Gore 105

1996:  Clinton/Gore vs Dole/Voinovich  is too close to call



Missouri decides who wins

2000: Gore/Kerry vs Bush/Ridge is too close to call


Florida decides election

2004: Bush/Cheney over Dean/Gephart



Bush 355
Dean 183

2008: Clinton/Bayh over Guiliani/McCain



Clinton 305
Guiliani 233

2012: Romney/Rubio over Obama/Biden



Romney 292
Obama 246

2016: Rubio/Walker over Hillary/Warren



Rubio 301
Clinton 237
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 07:20:55 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

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twenty42
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 10:10:56 am »
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2015...Rubio over Clinton
2011...Gingrich over Obama
2007...Romney over Edwards (never thought Clinton was gonna be nominee, and I was right)
2003...Bush over Dean
1999...McCain over Gore
1995...Clinton over generic R
1991...Bush over Harkin
1987...Bush over Cuomo
1983...Reagan over Hart
1979...Reagan over Kennedy
1975...Scoop Jackson over Ford
1971...Nixon over Muskie
1967...LBJ over Nixon
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 06:33:13 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                   
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                               
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                 
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 07:36:17 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 08:18:43 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 09:15:37 pm »
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Of elections I was aware enough to prognosticate, I had Clinton beating Romney in 2007, Obama beating Romney in 2011, and Clinton beating Bush or Rubio (depending on how early I am making the prognostication) in 2015.
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2017, 01:45:32 am »
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Only doing elections that I at least vaguely remember following:

2004


Dean/Clark - 311
Bush/Cheney - 227

2008


Clinton/Bayh - 361
Giuliani/Huckabee - 177

2012


Obama/Biden - 275
Romney/Portman - 263

2016


Clinton/Heinrich - 346
Rubio/Kasich - 192
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2017, 07:33:32 pm »
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(Only doing 2016 here Tongue) I never really thought about EV matchups that much in 2015, though I predicted Trump and Clinton would win the primaries. At that time, I believed that besides Trump the GOP primary field was a clown show and that Bernie Sanders was a random fringe candidate from nowhere Vermont that would never get anywhere. If I did make a map then, it probably would've looked like this:


Trump - 312 EV
Clinton - 226 EV
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2017, 08:45:37 pm »
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Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2017, 02:50:48 pm »
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instead of the 272 blue wall, including Iowa;

Cory Booker/Tulsi Gabbard will have 266 electoral votes to use

« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 02:53:48 pm by Da-Jon »Logged

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Old School Republican
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2017, 06:05:59 pm »
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Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.

Definitly not 1996 , Clinton popularity didnt recover till Newt shutdown the goverment in Dec 95 and Jan of 96.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2017, 02:48:11 pm »
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Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.

Definitly not 1996 , Clinton popularity didnt recover till Newt shutdown the goverment in Dec 95 and Jan of 96.

OK, great point.  It wasn't until just under a year before that 1996 became obvious.  Then I would sub in 1944, as it was clear the Allies were going to win WWII by late 1943, and if the observer knew that FDR would run again as an incumbent while winning a war, they would obviously predict a substantial.  That being said, I think they would be surprised that he only won by 7.  But there was also going to be some uniform swing away from FDR because the great majority of men in the military could not vote back then, and men were more Dem than women in that era.
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2017, 05:21:53 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.

1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.

1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.

1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.

2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2017, 11:30:30 am »
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Well, I wanted Rubio to be the president.

I didn't want Trump to get the nomination because I really didn't want the Democrats to win the presidency.
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2017, 11:12:53 am »
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My guess about a year before the 2016 election would have been something like

Rubio   312
Clinton 226

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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2017, 11:46:11 am »
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Marco Rubio/Scott Walker: 287 EV
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 251 EV
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2017, 02:20:47 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.

1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.

1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.

1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.

2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.

Reagan was not considered fringe in 1979 wiki page says he was the odds on favorite to be GOP nominee . You are mixing Reagan from 1975 with Reagan from 1979, who was considered fringe but he nearly took down an incumbent and bush was no where near as strong a Ford in a primary.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2017, 04:13:43 pm »
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Well, the election results which I called for is very similar to the actual election

Dems 266 (Clinton/Castro or Perez)
v
Trump 235

37 outstanding Iowa, Virginia and Ohio


 

I was predicting this with a Jeb Bush v Hilary Clinton map

And the Dems must live with this map and be careful not to overpredict in 2020 with Cory Booker or Terry McAuliff.  I want Terry McAuliff so badly, he will secure VA, WI, MI, and PA
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oreomilkshake
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2017, 07:52:03 pm »
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not sure about maps... but here were my actual, somewhat vague predictions by year.

1999: george w bush defeats al gore. this was pretty much just intuition. i just could never picture al gore as president. just was lacking... something. charisma i guess. simple as that.

2003: george w bush narrowly defeats john kerry. possibly loses popular vote again. i expected a closer election than what actually happened. mostly because of the widespread perception of lackluster economy.

2007: barack obama defeats john mccain. or mccain drops out of race and republicans run some other losing candidate. about the same as what happened.

2011: barack obama loses re-election to mitt romney due to low turn out. glad i was wrong there.

2015: donald trump defeats hillary clinton. not too far off from what happened electorally. although i expected a closer popular vote than what we actually got.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2017, 08:23:20 am »
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C’mon folks, Kerry’s candidacy appeared to be dead in November 2003.  Dean was widely considered to be the frontrunner at that point.  So why would any of you have been predicting Kerry vs. Bush?

Ditto McCain in 2007.  His candidacy appeared to be dead, and people were talking about Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee as the most likely nominees.  See this thread from November 2007:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65370.0
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