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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | |-+  What would have been your prediction a year before each election
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Author Topic: What would have been your prediction a year before each election  (Read 491 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: February 13, 2017, 09:53:19 pm »
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since 1968

Here's Mine

1968:


Romney/Reagan 289
LBJ/Humphrey 249

1972:



Nixon/Agnew 439
Muskie/Jackson 99

1976:



idaho should be blue
Henry Jackson/Birch Bayh 448
Gerald Ford/Nelson Rockerfeller 90


1980:



Reagan/Baker 304
Kennedy/Bayh 234

1984:



Reagan/Bush 363
Mondale/Hart 175


1988:


Gore/Glenn 287
Bush/Dole 251




Bush/Quayle 433
Brown/Gore 105

1996:  Clinton/Gore vs Dole/Voinovich  is too close to call



Missouri decides who wins

2000: Gore/Kerry vs Bush/Ridge is too close to call


Florida decides election

2004: Bush/Cheney over Dean/Gephart



Bush 355
Dean 183

2008: Clinton/Bayh over Guiliani/McCain



Clinton 305
Guiliani 233

2012: Romney/Rubio over Obama/Biden



Romney 292
Obama 246

2016: Rubio/Walker over Hillary/Warren



Rubio 301
Clinton 237
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 07:20:55 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

Favorite Current Politician - John Kasich
Favorite of last 50 years- Reagan, Bush Sr

Economic Score: 3.61
Social: -0.1


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Foreign Policy: 1.6
twenty42
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 10:10:56 am »
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2015...Rubio over Clinton
2011...Gingrich over Obama
2007...Romney over Edwards (never thought Clinton was gonna be nominee, and I was right)
2003...Bush over Dean
1999...McCain over Gore
1995...Clinton over generic R
1991...Bush over Harkin
1987...Bush over Cuomo
1983...Reagan over Hart
1979...Reagan over Kennedy
1975...Scoop Jackson over Ford
1971...Nixon over Muskie
1967...LBJ over Nixon
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 06:33:13 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                   
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                               
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                 
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)
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Political Spectrum

Government: 3.65 (Authoritarian)
Economics: -7.05 (Liberal)
Foreign Policy: -6.66 (Dove)
Culture Wars: -3.1 (Centrist)

Political Compass

Economics: -7.88
Social/Libertarian-Authoritarian: 0.92
Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 07:36:17 pm »
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1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 08:18:43 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

Favorite Current Politician - John Kasich
Favorite of last 50 years- Reagan, Bush Sr

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mencken
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 09:15:37 pm »
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Of elections I was aware enough to prognosticate, I had Clinton beating Romney in 2007, Obama beating Romney in 2011, and Clinton beating Bush or Rubio (depending on how early I am making the prognostication) in 2015.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2017, 01:45:32 am »
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Only doing elections that I at least vaguely remember following:

2004


Dean/Clark - 311
Bush/Cheney - 227

2008


Clinton/Bayh - 361
Giuliani/Huckabee - 177

2012


Obama/Biden - 275
Romney/Portman - 263

2016


Clinton/Heinrich - 346
Rubio/Kasich - 192
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"I didn't seek this job."
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