What would have been your prediction a year before each election
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  What would have been your prediction a year before each election
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Author Topic: What would have been your prediction a year before each election  (Read 5895 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: February 13, 2017, 09:53:19 PM »
« edited: March 19, 2017, 07:20:55 PM by Old School Republican »

since 1968

Here's Mine

1968:


Romney/Reagan 289
LBJ/Humphrey 249

1972:



Nixon/Agnew 439
Muskie/Jackson 99

1976:



idaho should be blue
Henry Jackson/Birch Bayh 448
Gerald Ford/Nelson Rockerfeller 90


1980:



Reagan/Baker 304
Kennedy/Bayh 234

1984:



Reagan/Bush 363
Mondale/Hart 175


1988:


Gore/Glenn 287
Bush/Dole 251




Bush/Quayle 433
Brown/Gore 105

1996:  Clinton/Gore vs Dole/Voinovich  is too close to call



Missouri decides who wins

2000: Gore/Kerry vs Bush/Ridge is too close to call


Florida decides election

2004: Bush/Cheney over Dean/Gephart



Bush 355
Dean 183

2008: Clinton/Bayh over Guiliani/McCain



Clinton 305
Guiliani 233

2012: Romney/Rubio over Obama/Biden



Romney 292
Obama 246

2016: Rubio/Walker over Hillary/Warren



Rubio 301
Clinton 237
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twenty42
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 10:10:56 AM »

2015...Rubio over Clinton
2011...Gingrich over Obama
2007...Romney over Edwards (never thought Clinton was gonna be nominee, and I was right)
2003...Bush over Dean
1999...McCain over Gore
1995...Clinton over generic R
1991...Bush over Harkin
1987...Bush over Cuomo
1983...Reagan over Hart
1979...Reagan over Kennedy
1975...Scoop Jackson over Ford
1971...Nixon over Muskie
1967...LBJ over Nixon
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 06:33:13 PM »

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                   
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                               
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                 
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 07:36:17 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2017, 08:18:43 PM by Old School Republican »

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll
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mencken
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 09:15:37 PM »

Of elections I was aware enough to prognosticate, I had Clinton beating Romney in 2007, Obama beating Romney in 2011, and Clinton beating Bush or Rubio (depending on how early I am making the prognostication) in 2015.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2017, 01:45:32 AM »

Only doing elections that I at least vaguely remember following:

2004


Dean/Clark - 311
Bush/Cheney - 227

2008


Clinton/Bayh - 361
Giuliani/Huckabee - 177

2012


Obama/Biden - 275
Romney/Portman - 263

2016


Clinton/Heinrich - 346
Rubio/Kasich - 192
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2017, 07:33:32 PM »

(Only doing 2016 here Tongue) I never really thought about EV matchups that much in 2015, though I predicted Trump and Clinton would win the primaries. At that time, I believed that besides Trump the GOP primary field was a clown show and that Bernie Sanders was a random fringe candidate from nowhere Vermont that would never get anywhere. If I did make a map then, it probably would've looked like this:


Trump - 312 EV
Clinton - 226 EV
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2017, 08:45:37 PM »

Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2017, 02:50:48 PM »
« Edited: March 25, 2017, 02:53:48 PM by Da-Jon »



instead of the 272 blue wall, including Iowa;

Cory Booker/Tulsi Gabbard will have 266 electoral votes to use

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2017, 06:05:59 PM »

Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.

Definitly not 1996 , Clinton popularity didnt recover till Newt shutdown the goverment in Dec 95 and Jan of 96.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2017, 02:48:11 PM »

Even assuming you were told the candidates, the only ones in the 20th century that would be anything close to the actual outcome would be 1912 (a Wilson win with <50% would be a given), 1932, 1936, 1964, and 1996.  That leaves 20 out of 25 that weren't really predictable.  I wanted to include 1944 and 1976, but I think most would overstate FDR and Carter's margins predicting those a year in advance.

Definitly not 1996 , Clinton popularity didnt recover till Newt shutdown the goverment in Dec 95 and Jan of 96.

OK, great point.  It wasn't until just under a year before that 1996 became obvious.  Then I would sub in 1944, as it was clear the Allies were going to win WWII by late 1943, and if the observer knew that FDR would run again as an incumbent while winning a war, they would obviously predict a substantial.  That being said, I think they would be surprised that he only won by 7.  But there was also going to be some uniform swing away from FDR because the great majority of men in the military could not vote back then, and men were more Dem than women in that era.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2017, 05:21:53 PM »

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.

1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.

1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.

1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.

2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2017, 11:30:30 AM »

Well, I wanted Rubio to be the president.

I didn't want Trump to get the nomination because I really didn't want the Democrats to win the presidency.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2017, 11:12:53 AM »

My guess about a year before the 2016 election would have been something like

Rubio   312
Clinton 226

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Deblano
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2017, 11:46:11 AM »



Marco Rubio/Scott Walker: 287 EV
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro: 251 EV
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2017, 02:20:47 PM »

1951: Eisenhower over Truman    (61-38)
1955: Nixon over Stevenson        (52-46)                  
1959: JFK over Nixon                  (same result)                                
1963: JFK over Goldwater            (72-28)                  
1967: LBJ over Romney               (51-45)
1971: Nixon over Muskie              (51-48)
1975: Church over Ford                (55-44)
1979: Kennedy over Reagan         (49-49)
1983: Reagan over Generic D       (54-44)
1987: Cuomo over Bush Sr           (55-44)
1991: Bush Sr over Generic D       (49-49)
1995: Clinton over Dole               (51-47)
1999: McCain over Gore               (50-48)
2003: Bush Jr over Dean              (51-49)
2007: Clinton over McCain            (same result)
2011: Obama over Romney          (54-44)
2016: Rubio over Clinton              (50-48)

A few questions

In 1955 Why are assuming IKE steps down and why do u think stevenson would be renominated

In 1979 how do you have Kennedy winning, even if you add Illionis and Oregon from my map to Kennedy , Reagan still has 272 electoral votes, if kennedy wants to win he needs to win Kentucky or Missouri which i dont think he can do

in 1999 wasnt Bush leading McCain in every poll by large margins

in 2007: wasnt McCain losing to Rudy or Mitt in every poll

A year is an eternity with these things, so everything has to be with a grain of salt.

1955: You assume Ike steps down, I assume he succumbs to a heart attack and dies, rumors about his health were everywhere at the time. Nixon would ascend in such a case.

1979: Reagan was considered fringe-right, while Kennedy was a media darling and gaining on Carter, and Ted is easily more charismatic than Bush Sr. What gets lost in The South gets gained on The West Coast and Northeast. No way Kennedy loses California to Bush Sr who literally needed Reagan coattails and a GOP government to get it in '88. Carter was just an extraordinarily bad fit for the state.

1999: Maybe Bush was leading the polls, but so was Trump in 2015, yet people still expected him to fall. I mean Bush Jr was a bit of yutz.

2007: Like Biden said of Rudy "something + 9/11" was his shtick, no substance at all to him, and I don't think a good chunk of the GOP electorate were ready for a Mormon at the time.

Reagan was not considered fringe in 1979 wiki page says he was the odds on favorite to be GOP nominee . You are mixing Reagan from 1975 with Reagan from 1979, who was considered fringe but he nearly took down an incumbent and bush was no where near as strong a Ford in a primary.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2017, 04:13:43 PM »

Well, the election results which I called for is very similar to the actual election

Dems 266 (Clinton/Castro or Perez)
v
Trump 235

37 outstanding Iowa, Virginia and Ohio


 

I was predicting this with a Jeb Bush v Hilary Clinton map

And the Dems must live with this map and be careful not to overpredict in 2020 with Cory Booker or Terry McAuliff.  I want Terry McAuliff so badly, he will secure VA, WI, MI, and PA
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2017, 07:52:03 PM »

not sure about maps... but here were my actual, somewhat vague predictions by year.

1999: george w bush defeats al gore. this was pretty much just intuition. i just could never picture al gore as president. just was lacking... something. charisma i guess. simple as that.

2003: george w bush narrowly defeats john kerry. possibly loses popular vote again. i expected a closer election than what actually happened. mostly because of the widespread perception of lackluster economy.

2007: barack obama defeats john mccain. or mccain drops out of race and republicans run some other losing candidate. about the same as what happened.

2011: barack obama loses re-election to mitt romney due to low turn out. glad i was wrong there.

2015: donald trump defeats hillary clinton. not too far off from what happened electorally. although i expected a closer popular vote than what we actually got.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 03, 2017, 08:23:20 AM »

C’mon folks, Kerry’s candidacy appeared to be dead in November 2003.  Dean was widely considered to be the frontrunner at that point.  So why would any of you have been predicting Kerry vs. Bush?

Ditto McCain in 2007.  His candidacy appeared to be dead, and people were talking about Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee as the most likely nominees.  See this thread from November 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65370.0
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Chips
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2020, 09:31:30 PM »

1988:



Gary Hart: 285 electoral votes
George Bush: 253 electoral votes

1992:



President Bush: 313 electoral votes
Bill Clinton: 225 electoral votes

1996:



President Clinton: 321 electoral votes
Bob Dole: 217 electoral votes

2000:



Al Gore: 324 electoral votes
George W. Bush: 214 electoral votes

2004:



President Bush: 334 electoral votes
Howard Dean: 204 electoral votes

2008:



Barack Obama: 298 electoral votes
John McCain: 240 electoral votes

2012:



President Obama: 271 electoral votes
Mitt Romney: 267 electoral votes

2016:



Hillary Clinton: 359 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 179 electoral votes

2020:



President Trump: 316 electoral votes
Joe Biden: 222 electoral votes
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2020, 10:41:34 PM »

C’mon folks, Kerry’s candidacy appeared to be dead in November 2003.  Dean was widely considered to be the frontrunner at that point.  So why would any of you have been predicting Kerry vs. Bush?

Ditto McCain in 2007.  His candidacy appeared to be dead, and people were talking about Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee as the most likely nominees.  See this thread from November 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65370.0

Why was McCain doing so badly at that point?
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dw93
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2020, 10:48:13 PM »

1976: Scoop Jackson defeats Gerald Ford
1980: Kennedy narrowly defeats Reagan or Reagan narrowly defeats Carter. It would've depended on the Dem. Primaries
1984: Reagan defeats Mondale or Hart
1988: Hart narrowly defeats Bush
1992: Bush decisively defeats generic Democrat
1996: Clinton defeats Dole
2000: Gore, like Bush 41 in 1988, goes from being the underdog in the polls to pulling off a respectable (though not quite large) win
2004: Bush beats Dean by a similar margin to Bill Clinton's victory in 1996
2008: Hillary defeats McCain or Giuliani.
2012: Romney narrowly defeats Obama . The Bin Laden Bump had worn off (Obama's poll #'s were in the 30s), Unemployment was still north of 8%, and the credit downgrade happened.
2016: Either Rubio or some other generic Republican narrowly defeats Clinton, or Clinton narrowly defeats Bush or Cruz.
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2020, 10:59:28 PM »

1980: Kennedy defeats Reagan
1988: Hart defeats Bush
1996: Clinton defeats Dole
2000: Bush defeats Gore
2004: Dean defeats Bush
2008: I predicted Obama would defeat McCain in 2006
2012: Romney defeats Obama
2016: Sanders defeats Bush
2020: Sanders defeats Trump
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bagelman
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2020, 11:12:17 PM »

2020:



Here's my realist Bernie victory scenario. I see Bernie as the most likely single nominee at this point, as Kamala comes across as a phony and Biden comes across as too old and tired. 2020 will be the year we get a recession. It's not that I'm hoping for one but I think that we're due for one.

2016:



John Kasich 287

Hillary Clinton 251

I think that the Republicans will end up nominating a moderate, Trump will get close and it'll be fun to watch Bush continue to fall, however Trump isn't a real conservative and he won't win over the establishment. Republicans will be energized to beat Clinton, while Clinton will be forced down our throats regardless of how much support Bernie has. I admit some wishful thinking however: I'm sure that Clinton will

2012:



I just gave the republicans the states they came close in back in 08 and left the rest alone. Obama's gonna win because he stands up for poor people, and the Republicans just don't really have an answer to him right now. Nobody wants Bush back.



occupied under new world order goverment by george bush and karl rove and dick cheney 538

THE NEW WORLD ORDER IS REAL. WE NEED TO FIGHT THE NEOCONS AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER.

2004:



democrat wins becuz bush isnt a good president but bush wins michigen becuz my dads from there

2000

[no map]

my dad wuld became the prsident beatng up a giant lizerd. he would win by 78 precent to 24 per cent.

1996

[no map]

[no scenario]

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2020, 04:59:52 AM »

I'm only going to do the elections since 1992 (so roughly within my lifetime, plus a year)



George H.W Bush/Dan Quayle 53% 292 EV
Mario Cuomo/Bill Clinton 46% 246 EV

1996



Bill Clinton/Al Gore 51% 334 EV
Bob Dole/Christine Todd Whitman 46% 204 EV

2000



George W. Bush/Colin Powell 50% 297 EV
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman 48% 241 EV

2004



Hillary Clinton/Tom Vilsack 50% 306 EV
George W. Bush/Dick Cheney 232 EV

2008



Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama 57% 391 EV
John McCain/Lindsey Graham 41% 147 EV

2012:



Barack Obama/Joe Biden 52% 328 EV
Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush 46% 210 EV

2016:



Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh 49% 269 EV
Paul Ryan/Nikki Haley 49% 269 EV
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