Predict the next two or three presidential elections

[Medal506]

Here are my predictions



2020



Trump 376 v Booker 162

2024



Ted Cruz 356 v Sherrod Brown 182

[heatcharger]

"Wow look at how overconfident Democrats are on this forum!"

[DPKdebator]

"Wow look at how overconfident Democrats are on this forum!"

It's not like the outcome is impossible.

[AGA]

I guess that this is just to see how close we were after these elections. We could have some idea about what 2020 would look like, but 2024 is really a shot in the dark.

Just for fun.

2020

369-169


2024

2028

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

I know the EV numbers won't stay the same 2024 and on, but..

Jason Kander/Caroline Kennedy: 368 EV; 50%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 170 EV; 45%

Jason Kander/Caroline Kennedy: 384 EV; 51%
Mike Pence/Ron Johnson: 154 EV; 44%

Caroline Kennedy/Tom Steyer: 49%; 303 EV's
Random Republican: 47%; 235 EV's

[Hindsight was 2020]

2020: Steve Bullock/Julian Castro 376 vs Trump/Pence 162

2024: Steve Bullock/Julian Castro 428 vs Tom Cotton/Ann Wagner 111

[Xing]

If I had to guess right now...

2020:

2024:

[UWS]

2020 :

Bernie Sanders/Cory Booker : 355 great electors
Donald Trump/Mike Pence : 183 great electors

2024

Marco Rubio/Nikki Haley : 317 great electors
Cory Booker/Martin Heinrich : 221 great electors

[nicholas.slaydon]

2020: If the Democrats run an establishment centrist

2020: If the Democrats run a decent candidate

2024:

[MT Treasurer]

Lol@all the people who think MO will vote Democratic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

After 1972 this is what I would have predicted

1976: Henry Jackson over Spiro Agnew
1980: Henry Jackson over Ronald Reagan
1984: Howard Baker over Ted Kennedy


After 1988:

1992: George Bush over Mario Cuomo
1996: Al Gore over Bob Dole
2000: Al Gore over James Baker

After 2004:

2008: John McCain over Hillary Clinton
2012: Mark Warner over John McCain
2016: Mark Warner over Condi Rice


So this is pointless

[AGA]

Lol@all the people who think MO will vote Democratic.

Yeah, Missouri is basically like Arkansas ~10 years ago at the presidential level. Even Iowa is hard for Democrats.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Lol@all the people who think MO will vote Democratic.

Yeah, Missouri is basically like Arkansas ~10 years ago at the presidential level. Even Iowa is hard for Democrats.

That entire stack almost seems like each state resembles the state to its south 5-10 years ago.

[RaphaelDLG]

Random guess: 

Could be totally wrong though, especially #2.

Holy sh**t, did you just predict New Hampshire to go Republican?!?  Is it April Fools Day/the Apocalypse or something?!?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tulsi Gabbard/Jason Kander
v
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 2020

[The Other Castro]

[Figueira]

Random guess: 

Could be totally wrong though, especially #2.

Holy sh**t, did you just predict New Hampshire to go Republican?!?  Is it April Fools Day/the Apocalypse or something?!?

He's mellowed out on that to some extent since the election.

[Medal506]

"Wow look at how overconfident Democrats are on this forum!"

It's not like the outcome is impossible.

Ted Cruz winning the nomination in 2024 isn't a real possibility. If his brand of conservatism isn't dead yet, it certainly will be in eight years.

You mean the ideology of pro constitution limited government conservatism? No my friend that will live on forever because I have news for you. People aren't really a fan of big government telling them what to do with their health care, how to educated their children, how they have to run their businesses. That's why a "left wing tea party" would not last. It's the opposite of small government and free market capitalism. And guess what if it's not Ted Cruz it will be someone like Mike Lee or maybe even Greg Abbott or possibly Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, or Ben Sasse or someone who's a fresh face who's much more conservative than any of them. Though my guess is Ted Cruz will probably be the next Republican nominee if Pence decides not to run for president

[The_Doctor]

"Wow look at how overconfident Democrats are on this forum!"

It's not like the outcome is impossible.

Ted Cruz winning the nomination in 2024 isn't a real possibility. If his brand of conservatism isn't dead yet, it certainly will be in eight years.

You mean the ideology of pro constitution limited government conservatism? No my friend that will live on forever because I have news for you. People aren't really a fan of big government telling them what to do with their health care, how to educated their children, how they have to run their businesses. That's why a "left wing tea party" would not last. It's the opposite of small government and free market capitalism. And guess what if it's not Ted Cruz it will be someone like Mike Lee or maybe even Greg Abbott or possibly Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, or Ben Sasse or someone who's a fresh face who's much more conservative than any of them. Though my guess is Ted Cruz will probably be the next Republican nominee if Pence decides not to run for president

The New Deal era disagrees with you.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

President Donald J. Trump/Vice President Michael Pence - 332 EV
Senator Elizabeth Warren/Senator Cory Booker - 206 EV

Vice President Michael Pence/Senator Tom Cotton - 328 EV
Former Mayor Bill De Blasio/Senator Tammy Duckworth - 210 EV

President Michael Pence/Vice President Tom Cotton
Former Governor John Bel Edwards/Senator Jason Kander

Governor Kris Kobach/Representative Stephen Miller
President John Bel Edwards/Vice President Jason Kander

[America Needs R'hllor]

2020:

2024:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2020:

Pence/Walker over Warren/Franken

2024:

Julian Castro/John Bel Edwards over Mike Pence/Scott Walker

2028 (by this point, abortion has been ruled a states' issue, so it no longer plays as big of a role in federal elections):

Castro/Edwards over Tim Scott/Greg Abbott

2032:

Tom Cotton/Elise Stefanik over Currently Unknown Democrats