Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble
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  Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble
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Author Topic: Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble  (Read 3476 times)
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #25 on: February 23, 2017, 09:53:11 PM »

Canova won't challenge Nelson.  No one wants to be responsible for the Democrats losing ground in the Senate in 2018.

Nelson wins because he still racks up majorities in Brevard County, where the Kennedy Space Center is located.  Nelson's from Brevard, which now has 500,000 people and is a likely R county in most every election.  While most folks see Nelson as a typical National Democrat, some in Brevard remember when Nelson was a rather conservative Democrat who was once approached about switching parties.

It was around 1988 that Nelson really committed to being a Democrat.  His friends in Brevard's Democratic Party were Al and Patsy Kurth.  Al was a fundraiser, and Patsy was a State Senator, and a cousin of Dick Gephardt, who Nelson was close to in Congress.  Nelson hasn't been viewed as a liberal throughout his career, and this serves him in good stead at times.  He's in less trouble than folks think.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #26 on: February 23, 2017, 11:05:36 PM »

Canova won't challenge Nelson.  No one wants to be responsible for the Democrats losing ground in the Senate in 2018.

Nelson wins because he still racks up majorities in Brevard County, where the Kennedy Space Center is located.  Nelson's from Brevard, which now has 500,000 people and is a likely R county in most every election.  While most folks see Nelson as a typical National Democrat, some in Brevard remember when Nelson was a rather conservative Democrat who was once approached about switching parties.

It was around 1988 that Nelson really committed to being a Democrat.  His friends in Brevard's Democratic Party were Al and Patsy Kurth.  Al was a fundraiser, and Patsy was a State Senator, and a cousin of Dick Gephardt, who Nelson was close to in Congress.  Nelson hasn't been viewed as a liberal throughout his career, and this serves him in good stead at times.  He's in less trouble than folks think.
Nailed it.
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Dereich
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« Reply #27 on: February 23, 2017, 11:50:12 PM »

Canova won't challenge Nelson.  No one wants to be responsible for the Democrats losing ground in the Senate in 2018.

Nelson wins because he still racks up majorities in Brevard County, where the Kennedy Space Center is located.  Nelson's from Brevard, which now has 500,000 people and is a likely R county in most every election.  While most folks see Nelson as a typical National Democrat, some in Brevard remember when Nelson was a rather conservative Democrat who was once approached about switching parties.

It was around 1988 that Nelson really committed to being a Democrat.  His friends in Brevard's Democratic Party were Al and Patsy Kurth.  Al was a fundraiser, and Patsy was a State Senator, and a cousin of Dick Gephardt, who Nelson was close to in Congress.  Nelson hasn't been viewed as a liberal throughout his career, and this serves him in good stead at times.  He's in less trouble than folks think.

I'd also add that he's well regarded for his military advocacy up in DC and has done better than the average democrat in places with strong military presence like Bay, Escambia, and Duval. I'd expect that to continue as well.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2017, 11:52:02 PM »

I know Nelson is favored, but I really, really want this seat for easing judicial appointments (literally my #1 issue).
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Blackacre
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« Reply #29 on: February 24, 2017, 09:27:37 AM »

Canova won't challenge Nelson.  No one wants to be responsible for the Democrats losing ground in the Senate in 2018.

Nelson wins because he still racks up majorities in Brevard County, where the Kennedy Space Center is located.  Nelson's from Brevard, which now has 500,000 people and is a likely R county in most every election.  While most folks see Nelson as a typical National Democrat, some in Brevard remember when Nelson was a rather conservative Democrat who was once approached about switching parties.

It was around 1988 that Nelson really committed to being a Democrat.  His friends in Brevard's Democratic Party were Al and Patsy Kurth.  Al was a fundraiser, and Patsy was a State Senator, and a cousin of Dick Gephardt, who Nelson was close to in Congress.  Nelson hasn't been viewed as a liberal throughout his career, and this serves him in good stead at times.  He's in less trouble than folks think.

I'd also add that he's well regarded for his military advocacy up in DC and has done better than the average democrat in places with strong military presence like Bay, Escambia, and Duval. I'd expect that to continue as well.

...so he's literally the Democratic John McCain. Nice! Cheesy
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: February 28, 2017, 10:15:03 AM »

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AndrewTX
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« Reply #31 on: February 28, 2017, 01:01:16 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2017, 01:17:40 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2017, 02:50:10 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2017, 04:35:05 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down
I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #35 on: February 28, 2017, 05:32:10 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down
I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.
A lot of people think he's more likely to run for CFO than Senator again. I think he has his sites set on running for Governor after Putnam in 2026, and may be positioning himself to become Rubio's heir. Of course, the fact that he is deluded enough to think Rubio will be President is a sign that he likely won't go beyond CFO.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #36 on: February 28, 2017, 06:33:51 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down
I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.
A lot of people think he's more likely to run for CFO than Senator again. I think he has his sites set on running for Governor after Putnam in 2026, and may be positioning himself to become Rubio's heir. Of course, the fact that he is deluded enough to think Rubio will be President is a sign that he likely won't go beyond CFO.
I have several questions for you? We all know now that Atwater is soon resigning. If CLC is interested, would Scott appoint him? It would give him the incumbency, although on paper that is a step down (however Former Lt. Gov. Kottkamp ran unsuccessfully for AG while still LG). The Lieutenant Governor is mostly symbolic from what I understand. And I hear that if Bondi gets a job with Trump Scott may make another appointment, which means he may pick two people who will be on the statewide ticket next year (and likely share it with him if he does get the Senate nod).

Also, since we're already more than halfway through the term, does that mean the appointee for CFO and hypothetical AG appointee can both run for two full terms (2018 and 2022)?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #37 on: February 28, 2017, 11:34:46 PM »

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?
Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney
I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down
I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.
A lot of people think he's more likely to run for CFO than Senator again. I think he has his sites set on running for Governor after Putnam in 2026, and may be positioning himself to become Rubio's heir. Of course, the fact that he is deluded enough to think Rubio will be President is a sign that he likely won't go beyond CFO.
I have several questions for you? We all know now that Atwater is soon resigning. If CLC is interested, would Scott appoint him? It would give him the incumbency, although on paper that is a step down (however Former Lt. Gov. Kottkamp ran unsuccessfully for AG while still LG). The Lieutenant Governor is mostly symbolic from what I understand. And I hear that if Bondi gets a job with Trump Scott may make another appointment, which means he may pick two people who will be on the statewide ticket next year (and likely share it with him if he does get the Senate nod).

Also, since we're already more than halfway through the term, does that mean the appointee for CFO and hypothetical AG appointee can both run for two full terms (2018 and 2022)?
I'm no oracle on Florida politics. In fact, I haven't heard anything aside from "teh insiduhs" (to use Atlas lingo) since this summer. I'm not as kept up as I once was on Florida politics as of late, though.

So, since Atwater is going to FAU, I'd say that the two likeliest candidates of the major names floated are Lt. Governor CLC and State Senator Jack Latvala (Big Latvala). Some guy who I assume is very important and more qualified than either named Neal was also mentioned, though to tell the truth I have no idea who is. My gut says he'll probably get appointed. A lot of Governors sorta pop out of nowhere (like Eric Holcomb or Matt Bevin).

I have no idea who'd he pick to be Lt. Governor, but it could be a good position to advance a successor. I do know that he was somewhat partial to Beruff in the Rubio challenge, so perhaps he'll get the slot. I doubt it though; I don't see Scott trying to undermine Putnam, even if he does like Beruff personally and politically. There are a plethora of retired but only semi-old politicians (like Bill McCollum) who like to talk about comebacks. George LeMieux, Bill McCollum, Adam Hasner, Jeff Kottkemp, Dave Weldon, etc, etc, they're several for every facet of government. Anyone of them could be picked as well. Or someone in the private sector that we never heard of.

If Bondi resigns, I'd imagine DeSantis would get the position. I never once imagined that a member of Congress would step down to be Attorney General, but Xavier Becerra, who is a lot more influential than DeSantis is on the whole, set the precedent on that. So DeSantis could get appointed, which should be enough to ward off most challengers (if he gets any-he's very popular among moderates and the Trumpists alike).

Not sure about the terms.
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