Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble

[Frodo]

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Politico

[heatcharger]

Lol Tim Canova. Politico is pumping out a lot of noise right now.

[GlobeSoc]

Lol Tim Canova. Politico is pumping out a lot of noise right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rick Scott was a horrible and unliked gov so why that would make him a strong senator challenge to someone liked like Bill Nelson seems ridiculous

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rick Scott was a horrible and unliked gov so why that would make him a strong senator challenge to someone liked like Bill Nelson seems ridiculous

He may not know how to govern, but he knows to win elections against supposedly unbeatable centrist Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Rick Scott was a horrible and unliked gov so why that would make him a strong senator challenge to someone liked like Bill Nelson seems ridiculous

He may not know how to govern, but he knows to win elections against supposedly unbeatable centrist Democrats.

I i would have his money - i would win elections even more convincingly))))

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Rick Scott was a horrible and unliked gov so why that would make him a strong senator challenge to someone liked like Bill Nelson seems ridiculous

He may not know how to govern, but he knows to win elections against supposedly unbeatable centrist Democrats.

Of course, both times he won were in Republican wave years- and only by a point and a plurality. Florida usually seems to be swingy regarding House seats and Gubernatorial elections, no matter the national environment.

However, something I have realized is that the Senate elections in Florida tend to not be narrow wins, excluding open seats (also excluding for FBM Marco's initial election to the Senate).

Bottom line: We do not know much with how competitive Scott will be with Nelson, but history does not look for him. And even then, considering the 2016 elections...

[Pericles]

I will laugh at this after the 2018 Democrat wave when Nelson wins by double digits.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Nelson was always vulnerable, but also very lucky in his reelection bids so far.

[publicunofficial]

“Nelson is doomed because two Democrats who lost in landslides in 2016 (Tim Canova and Pam Keith) are thinking about primarying him.”

lol politico

[Nhoj]

Tim canova is a loon so i don't think he will get far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This headline seems to get published every six years doesn't it.

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup with Scott, Lean D with anyone else.

[Xing]

He wouldn't beat Scott by double digits, but I'm not too worried about him losing to Scott either, who barely scraped by twice, both in incredibly good years for Republicans. Democrats should, of course, put some attention into this race, but there are far more worrisome seats.

[Free Bird]

I will laugh at this after the 2018 Democrat wave when Nelson wins by double digits.

A wave is literally metaphysically impossible in 2018

[houseonaboat]

A primary, assuming he wins, could even help him if he doesn't move too far to the left. "I have a record of standing up to Democrats AND Republicans" and all that jazz.

[peterthlee]

The person who is in real trouble is Rick Scott, not Nelson.

[Blackacre]

I will laugh at this after the 2018 Democrat wave when Nelson wins by double digits.

A wave is literally metaphysically impossible in 2018

Untrue. What you're trying to get at is that there are very few pickup opportunities for Democrats in this Senate map, which is not the same thing as "there can't be a wave." A wave would simply mean few if any Senate gains and a lot of gains elsewhere, but Dems sweeping the Senate races in MT, IN, MO, NV, AZ, ND, FL, OH, PA, VA, WV, WI, MN, and MI would still be an impressive feat, and perfectly possible. In such a case Nelson probably does win by double digits

[nolesfan2011]

A primary, assuming he wins, could even help him if he doesn't move too far to the left. "I have a record of standing up to Democrats AND Republicans" and all that jazz.

I'll go to the mat to defend Nelson (as a progressive), he's one of the best senators in the country. Anyone thinking of challenging him is a fool.

That said, I get the black wing of the FDP being restless and feeling locked out, dating back the chain gang charlie/kendrick meek thing, and some stress about lack of investment in black voter turnout in 16.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

They're overrating his vulnerability. Nelson definitely has the toughest race on his hands since his 2000 election to the Senate, and Rick Scott (while not the best candidate) is a threat, but the RPOF will have to run an unusually spectacular campaign and the Florida Dems will have to run an usually inept campaign in order for the seat to change hands. Having dealt with people who are relatively high up in both parties, I can say with certainty (and FuzzyBear, Dereich and SJoyce would agree) that both are very possible. Of course, people were saying that in 2011 when it looked like he'd be facing Hasner, or LeMieux, and looked how that turned out...

“Nelson is doomed because two Democrats who lost in landslides in 2016 (Tim Canova and Pam Keith) are thinking about primarying him.”

lol politico

I don't quite get the Politico hate, but this is basically insider innuendo being mistaken for some kind of "hot take" or "scoop." Canova and Keith are nobodies in the Florida Democratic Party, and Nan Rich is the only prominent progressive Florida Democrat I can think of other than Alan Grayson, who was never taken seriously as a political figure and probably is going to end up with an MSNBC Show at some point.

The congressional delegation's Democrats are divided into two categories: garden-variety, Obama era, soft-center left Democrats ranging from the just ever so slightly conservative (Patrick Murphy) to centrists (Bill Nelson), to generic liberal (Lois Frankel, DWS, Kathy Kastor, Ted Deutch, etc) and the Black Caucus members (Alcee Hastings, Val Demmings, Al Lawson, as of last year Corrine Brown) who are more rhetorically outspoken but none the less reliable party loyalists and docile backbenchers.

I heard a lot of talk during my internship last year that the Panhandle Democrats (outside of Pensacola, at least) are actually more likely to vote Republican these days than the Republicans in the area, many of whom are wealthy retired moderate Republicans from the Northeast or Midwest. It's worth noting that the Florida panhandle saw the highest Martin O'Malley numbers in the entire race, as Hillary and Bernie were the only two candidates left. How strong this Dixiecrat component is outside of the western half of the Panhandle, I don't know. I think my apex of actual political involvement was that internship at this point, but I'd be curious to know should I encounter someone in the field again.

One thing I'll never forgot for as long as I live is that through the entire my duration on the Hasner campaign in 2012, from the time I came on scene about a week after the transition from a Senate to House race to the election itself, they never had the time to take down some of the Senate campaign memorabilia. On the office fridge, a bumper sticker attached read "send Bill Nelson back to space." I think Bill Nelson can be sent back to space but I'm not gonna be waiting for it.

[Skye]

He wouldn't beat Scott by double digits, but I'm not too worried about him losing to Scott either, who barely scraped by twice, both in incredibly good years for Republicans. Democrats should, of course, put some attention into this race, but there are far more worrisome seats.

Let's not underestimate Scott. His 2014 race was incredibly though, and he overcame double digit deficits to win in the end. And most people here thought Crist was going to win.

[publicunofficial]

He wouldn't beat Scott by double digits, but I'm not too worried about him losing to Scott either, who barely scraped by twice, both in incredibly good years for Republicans. Democrats should, of course, put some attention into this race, but there are far more worrisome seats.

Let's not underestimate Scott. His 2014 race was incredibly though, and he overcame double digit deficits to win in the end. And most people here thought Crist was going to win.

Challenging an incumbent in a (probably) D-leaning year is a much steeper hill to climb than running as an incumbent in an R-leaning year.

[peterthlee]

Challenging an incumbent in a (probably) D-leaning year is a much steeper hill to climb than running as an incumbent in an R-leaning year.

Yup, this. Stop pipe-dreaming on a plausible but improbable Scott victory. As long as Nelson performs to his standards, he will defeat any generic R by 8-15 points. My current projection from my gut is that Nelson triumphs 54-44 against Scott or strong Republican recruits, and 56-42 against other Mack IV replicas.

[Skye]

Challenging an incumbent in a (probably) D-leaning year is a much steeper hill to climb than running as an incumbent in an R-leaning year.

Yup, this. Stop pipe-dreaming on a plausible but improbable Scott victory. As long as Nelson performs to his standards, he will defeat any generic R by 8-15 points. My current projection from my gut is that Nelson triumphs 54-44 against Scott or strong Republican recruits, and 56-42 against other Mack IV replicas.

Unless Scott runs an incredibly bad campaign, he probably isn't going to lose by 10 points. Mack was just generic R running against a popular incumbent and that's why he lost big. I do agree, however, that he starts as the favorite, and that's good enough for him for now.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Nelson won a lot of traditional GOP counties in his 2012 re-election and easily outperformed Obama, granted, he ran against Connie Mack (who I actually voted for), I can only see him losing re-election if Lt. Gov Lopez Cantera runs.