Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

They're overrating his vulnerability. Nelson definitely has the toughest race on his hands since his 2000 election to the Senate, and Rick Scott (while not the best candidate) is a threat, but the RPOF will have to run an unusually spectacular campaign and the Florida Dems will have to run an usually inept campaign in order for the seat to change hands. Having dealt with people who are relatively high up in both parties, I can say with certainty (and FuzzyBear, Dereich and SJoyce would agree) that both are very possible. Of course, people were saying that in 2011 when it looked like he'd be facing Hasner, or LeMieux, and looked how that turned out...

“Nelson is doomed because two Democrats who lost in landslides in 2016 (Tim Canova and Pam Keith) are thinking about primarying him.”

lol politico

I don't quite get the Politico hate, but this is basically insider innuendo being mistaken for some kind of "hot take" or "scoop." Canova and Keith are nobodies in the Florida Democratic Party, and Nan Rich is the only prominent progressive Florida Democrat I can think of other than Alan Grayson, who was never taken seriously as a political figure and probably is going to end up with an MSNBC Show at some point.

The congressional delegation's Democrats are divided into two categories: garden-variety, Obama era, soft-center left Democrats ranging from the just ever so slightly conservative (Patrick Murphy) to centrists (Bill Nelson), to generic liberal (Lois Frankel, DWS, Kathy Kastor, Ted Deutch, etc) and the Black Caucus members (Alcee Hastings, Val Demmings, Al Lawson, as of last year Corrine Brown) who are more rhetorically outspoken but none the less reliable party loyalists and docile backbenchers.

I heard a lot of talk during my internship last year that the Panhandle Democrats (outside of Pensacola, at least) are actually more likely to vote Republican these days than the Republicans in the area, many of whom are wealthy retired moderate Republicans from the Northeast or Midwest. It's worth noting that the Florida panhandle saw the highest Martin O'Malley numbers in the entire race, as Hillary and Bernie were the only two candidates left. How strong this Dixiecrat component is outside of the western half of the Panhandle, I don't know. I think my apex of actual political involvement was that internship at this point, but I'd be curious to know should I encounter someone in the field again.

One thing I'll never forgot for as long as I live is that through the entire my duration on the Hasner campaign in 2012, from the time I came on scene about a week after the transition from a Senate to House race to the election itself, they never had the time to take down some of the Senate campaign memorabilia. On the office fridge, a bumper sticker attached read "send Bill Nelson back to space." I think Bill Nelson can be sent back to space but I'm not gonna be waiting for it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Canova won't challenge Nelson.  No one wants to be responsible for the Democrats losing ground in the Senate in 2018.

Nelson wins because he still racks up majorities in Brevard County, where the Kennedy Space Center is located.  Nelson's from Brevard, which now has 500,000 people and is a likely R county in most every election.  While most folks see Nelson as a typical National Democrat, some in Brevard remember when Nelson was a rather conservative Democrat who was once approached about switching parties.

It was around 1988 that Nelson really committed to being a Democrat.  His friends in Brevard's Democratic Party were Al and Patsy Kurth.  Al was a fundraiser, and Patsy was a State Senator, and a cousin of Dick Gephardt, who Nelson was close to in Congress.  Nelson hasn't been viewed as a liberal throughout his career, and this serves him in good stead at times.  He's in less trouble than folks think.

Nailed it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?

Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney

I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down

I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.

A lot of people think he's more likely to run for CFO than Senator again. I think he has his sites set on running for Governor after Putnam in 2026, and may be positioning himself to become Rubio's heir. Of course, the fact that he is deluded enough to think Rubio will be President is a sign that he likely won't go beyond CFO.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Does it really matter if he is in trouble or not? Lets be honest.. is there really a bench for the GOP to run for that seat anyways?

Rick Scott

If not him, then:
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Dennis Ross
Tom Rooney

I'd not be surprise if Lopez cantera is on that list, although he'll probably run lower down

I doubt he runs for the seat. Plus, I think it's nice for Florida not to have both Senators from Miami-Dade.

A lot of people think he's more likely to run for CFO than Senator again. I think he has his sites set on running for Governor after Putnam in 2026, and may be positioning himself to become Rubio's heir. Of course, the fact that he is deluded enough to think Rubio will be President is a sign that he likely won't go beyond CFO.

I have several questions for you? We all know now that Atwater is soon resigning. If CLC is interested, would Scott appoint him? It would give him the incumbency, although on paper that is a step down (however Former Lt. Gov. Kottkamp ran unsuccessfully for AG while still LG). The Lieutenant Governor is mostly symbolic from what I understand. And I hear that if Bondi gets a job with Trump Scott may make another appointment, which means he may pick two people who will be on the statewide ticket next year (and likely share it with him if he does get the Senate nod).

Also, since we're already more than halfway through the term, does that mean the appointee for CFO and hypothetical AG appointee can both run for two full terms (2018 and 2022)?

I'm no oracle on Florida politics. In fact, I haven't heard anything aside from "teh insiduhs" (to use Atlas lingo) since this summer. I'm not as kept up as I once was on Florida politics as of late, though.

So, since Atwater is going to FAU, I'd say that the two likeliest candidates of the major names floated are Lt. Governor CLC and State Senator Jack Latvala (Big Latvala). Some guy who I assume is very important and more qualified than either named Neal was also mentioned, though to tell the truth I have no idea who is. My gut says he'll probably get appointed. A lot of Governors sorta pop out of nowhere (like Eric Holcomb or Matt Bevin).

I have no idea who'd he pick to be Lt. Governor, but it could be a good position to advance a successor. I do know that he was somewhat partial to Beruff in the Rubio challenge, so perhaps he'll get the slot. I doubt it though; I don't see Scott trying to undermine Putnam, even if he does like Beruff personally and politically. There are a plethora of retired but only semi-old politicians (like Bill McCollum) who like to talk about comebacks. George LeMieux, Bill McCollum, Adam Hasner, Jeff Kottkemp, Dave Weldon, etc, etc, they're several for every facet of government. Anyone of them could be picked as well. Or someone in the private sector that we never heard of.

If Bondi resigns, I'd imagine DeSantis would get the position. I never once imagined that a member of Congress would step down to be Attorney General, but Xavier Becerra, who is a lot more influential than DeSantis is on the whole, set the precedent on that. So DeSantis could get appointed, which should be enough to ward off most challengers (if he gets any-he's very popular among moderates and the Trumpists alike).

Not sure about the terms.