Prediction from The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2020 Presidential election in the event that the Democrats pick their closest analogue to Ronald Reagan -- Senator Al Franken (who was a successful entertainer)  -- with Donald Trump having approvals in the low 30s:

 

Al Franken (D-MN) 485

Donald Trump (R, inc) 47

Evan McMullen (I, UT) 6

Southerners do not like d@mnyankee pols, and that is exactly what Donald Trump will be by then if he has a national disapproval around 60%. Indiana goes for Trump -- just barely -- because Mike Pence is the VP nominee. Mormons in Utah begin to remember the "Grab them by the pu$$y" remark. The racist wing of the American Right attacks Al Franken for being Jewish -- and that backfires. Al Franken has a sense of humor as well as logical consistency, commodities that will serve him well as a campaigner.

If America can elect a black President, it can also elect a Jewish President.  

Note that this is not a prediction, but instead a model of what a defeat of an incumbent President on the scale of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980 looks like.


 

[Wiz in Wis]

Here's my projection of the 2020 Presidential election in the event that the Democrats pick their closest analogue to Ronald Reagan -- Senator Al Franken (who was a successful entertainer)  -- with Donald Trump having approvals in the low 30s:

 

Al Franken (D-MN) 485

Donald Trump (R, inc) 47

Evan McMullen (I, UT) 6

Southerners do not like d@mnyankee pols, and that is exactly what Donald Trump will be by then if he has a national disapproval around 60%. Indiana goes for Trump -- just barely -- because Mike Pence is the VP nominee. Mormons in Utah begin to remember the "Grab them by the pu$$y" remark. The racist wing of the American Right attacks Al Franken for being Jewish -- and that backfires. Al Franken has a sense of humor as well as logical consistency, commodities that will serve him well as a campaigner.

If America can elect a black President, it can also elect a Jewish President.  

Note that this is not a prediction, but instead a model of what a defeat of an incumbent President on the scale of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980 looks like.


 

Not the thread for this... but,

No way that Franken wins WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA and loses ND, SD, KS, MT, AK, IN

[pbrower2a]

but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

There's a fine line between optimism and wishful thinking

Optimism? It is extreme pessimism in Donald Trump.

Approval in the low 30s. Carter lost Massachusetts in 1980...

See the map above. Obviously there is no way in which Donald Trump has a Hoover-like economy in 2020. There's no bubble to burst because one hasn't developed under Obama as one developed while Coolidge was President; besides, the Federal Reserve Bank really runs the American economy as if it were an economic equivalent of the judicialry. A diplomatic fiasco like the hostage situation in Iran? Probably unrepeatable. But see a dictatorial President creating political and economic chaos, failing to deliver on his promises, and...

This is a bit more realistic, don;t you think?

 

Al Franken (D-MN) 375

Donald Trump (R, inc) 163

[Doimper]

but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

There's a fine line between optimism and wishful thinking

Optimism? It is extreme pessimism in Donald Trump.

Approval in the low 30s. Carter lost Massachusetts in 1980...

See the map above. Obviously there is no way in which Donald Trump has a Hoover-like economy in 2020. There's no bubble to burst because one hasn't developed under Obama as one developed while Coolidge was President; besides, the Federal Reserve Bank really runs the American economy as if it were an economic equivalent of the judicialry. A diplomatic fiasco like the hostage situation in Iran? Probably unrepeatable. But see a dictatorial President creating political and economic chaos, failing to deliver on his promises, and...

This is a bit more realistic, don;t you think?

That map is well within the realm of possibility, but there are plenty of Carter/not-Obama voters that are never voting for a Democrat again. Trump could kick off a limited nuclear exchange and still not lose a half-dozen states that Carter won.

Besides, how much of the Carter electorate will still be around by 2020?

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of the 2020 Presidential election in the event that the Democrats pick their closest analogue to Ronald Reagan -- Senator Al Franken (who was a successful entertainer)  -- with Donald Trump having approvals in the low 30s:

 

Al Franken (D-MN) 485

Donald Trump (R, inc) 47

Evan McMullen (I, UT) 6

Southerners do not like d@mnyankee pols, and that is exactly what Donald Trump will be by then if he has a national disapproval around 60%. Indiana goes for Trump -- just barely -- because Mike Pence is the VP nominee. Mormons in Utah begin to remember the "Grab them by the pu$$y" remark. The racist wing of the American Right attacks Al Franken for being Jewish -- and that backfires. Al Franken has a sense of humor as well as logical consistency, commodities that will serve him well as a campaigner.

If America can elect a black President, it can also elect a Jewish President.  

Note that this is not a prediction, but instead a model of what a defeat of an incumbent President on the scale of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980 looks like.


 

Not the thread for this... but,

No way that Franken wins WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA and loses ND, SD, KS, MT, AK, IN

Your view of a potential Democratic landslide in which the incumbent Republican gets 50 or so electoral votes may be more realistic. At this stage, who knows who the Democratic nominee will and the approval rating of President Trump will be? Predicting the style of a victory of anyone is foolhardy. But something like 480 electoral votes for any Democratic nominee in 2020...  

I think I have an interesting analogue to Reagan...  

[pbrower2a]

but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

There's a fine line between optimism and wishful thinking

Optimism? It is extreme pessimism in Donald Trump.

Approval in the low 30s. Carter lost Massachusetts in 1980...

See the map above. Obviously there is no way in which Donald Trump has a Hoover-like economy in 2020. There's no bubble to burst because one hasn't developed under Obama as one developed while Coolidge was President; besides, the Federal Reserve Bank really runs the American economy as if it were an economic equivalent of the judicialry. A diplomatic fiasco like the hostage situation in Iran? Probably unrepeatable. But see a dictatorial President creating political and economic chaos, failing to deliver on his promises, and...

This is a bit more realistic, don;t you think?

That map is well within the realm of possibility, but there are plenty of Carter/not-Obama voters that are never voting for a Democrat again. Trump could kick off a limited nuclear exchange and still not lose a half-dozen states that Carter won.

Besides, how much of the Carter electorate will still be around by 2020?

I once called 1976 politics "ancient history" irrelevant to the Obama era. America was still only about 40 years away from the New Deal era, and the uneasy alliance between old New Deal pols and blacks still held -- barely -- for Carter. By 1980 that had eroded.

If I am to make any comparison to Obama it is to Eisenhower, Obama winning basically the states that Ike won except for Mormon country and most of the states in which livestock ranching is a big part of agriculture. There's a huge divide in culture between farming and ranching. (Were I to put Romeo and Juliet  in a fresh setting it would be during the Range Wars between farmers and ranchers, of which there are allusions in the musical Oklahoma!)

It is more remarkable that Eisenhower won Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode Island  twice, considering that Massachusetts and Minnesota would be the only two states that went for McGovern in 1972 and Mondale in 1980, respectively; and Rhode Island, one of two states not in the South that Hoover lost in 1928 (the other was Massachusetts), than that Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 won all but one state that Obama won.   

Democrats will be happy just to put the Obama coalition back together in 2020 to win the Presidency.

But we are all way ahead of ourselves, aren't we? I am not sure that we will have a free and fair election in 2020, in view of the ruthlessness and extremism of Republicans.   

[The_Doctor]

Obama wasn't Eisenhower. Bill Clinton was that in the 1990s. He even called himself an Eisenhower Republican. The Obama Administration reminds me of a Nixon White House minus the impeachment in terms of political coalitions and moments of time.

[Blackacre]

Obama wasn't Eisenhower. Bill Clinton was that in the 1990s. He even called himself an Eisenhower Republican. The Obama Administration reminds me of a Nixon White House minus the impeachment in terms of political coalitions and moments of time.

I feel like if you took Nixon and Ford and reshuffled them so that the Nixon cloud of scandal goes to Ford instead, you'd get Obama and Hillary Clinton

[Devout Centrist]

Obama wasn't Eisenhower. Bill Clinton was that in the 1990s. He even called himself an Eisenhower Republican. The Obama Administration reminds me of a Nixon White House minus the impeachment in terms of political coalitions and moments of time.

You can't reasonably compare Obama to Nixon, mainly because the latter was a political novice and the former was VP for eight years.

[pbrower2a]

A huge difference between Eisenhower and Obama as President was the successors that they had/have. JFK may be unique in American history in being so different from an above-average predecessor  yet still being understood as an above-average President. Donald Trump could hardly be more different from his predecessor, but he is incredibly awful.