Sabato Initial Senate Rankings

[Heisenberg]

I stand by my prediction that one of McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp is going to get Blanched.

Out of those three I'd say Donnelly is the most likely to get Blanched.

Agree. Indiana stampeded hard right and went strongly GOP up and down the ballot (admittedly, Pence helped, but still). Donnelly won with help from Mourdock's gaffe, and even then it was still close. He's also pretty anonymous, and Luke Messer, the Congressman who succeeded Pence in the House is the likely nominee. Pence's ground game (which pulled Holcomb and McCormick across the line to score upset wins) will come out in full force and do anything and everything they can to win the seat back.

[Gass3268]

I doubt there will be any Blanching for Democrats in a Trump midterm.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm still confused about Messer. Like Pence before him, he seems to have been gunning for House leadership. I guess also like Pence before him, he doesn't see room for advancement?

[publicunofficial]

Initial House Ratings are up.

Likely D:
CA-16 (Costa)
CA-24 (Carbajal)
IA-02 (Loebsack)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-17 (Bustos)
NH-02 (Kuster)
NV-04 (Kihuen)
NY-03 (Suozzi)
NY-18 (Maloney)
PA-17 (Cartwright)
WI-03 (Kind)


Lean D:
AZ-01 (O'Halleran)
CA-07 (Bera)
FL-07 (Murphy)
FL-13 (Crist)
MN-01 (Walz)
MN-07 (Peterson)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer)
NV-03 (Rosen)


Toss-Up:
CA-49 (Issa)
MN-02 (Lewis)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
TX-23 (Hurd)

Lean R:
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-25 (Knight)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
KS-03 (Yoder)
NE-02 (Bacon)
PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-10 (Comstock)


Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-02 (McSally)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-45 (Walters)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher)
FL-18 (Mast)
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
GA-06 Special (OPEN)
IA-01 (Blum)
IA-03 (Young)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-13 (Davis)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-11 (Trott)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
MT-AL Special (OPEN)
NJ-07 (Lance)
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen)
NY-19 (Faso)
NY-22 (Tenney)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-06 (Costello)
PA-07 (Meehan)
PA-16 (Smucker)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-32 (Sessions)
UT-04 (Love)
WA-08 (Reichert)


Overall picture is the House picture depends on developments in individual races (Such as possible redistricting in Texas), and the general popularity of Trump and the Republican Congress.

[OneJ]

MT-AL should be moved down. I could argue that GA-06 should be moved down too.

[Figueira]

Aside from MN-02, I'd say the House rankings are a bit Republican-friendly.

[Donerail]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

[Virginiá]

IRL's district is exactly the kind I would expect to flip in a Dem wave. Not only did it go for Obama by comfortable margins, but it was a 20% Clinton district, so it's not like it just suddenly went from Republican to strong Democrat in its presidential voting. It's been slipping for a while now.

My opinion is that this could flip even in a mediocre wave, or if Ileana leaves on her own accord. Her name & incumbency advantage only goes so far, especially after seeing her underwhelming performance last year.

[Donerail]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

[Figueira]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

That makes no sense.

[JerryArkansas]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

No, just no dude.

[windjammer]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

Didn't Gene Taylor run 60 points ahead of the top of the ticket?

[Blackacre]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

[Skye]

lol, IRL isn't invulnerable. Just look at how the blue dogs went extinct in 2014.

Still, I hope she doesn't lose.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

lol FL-27 ain't flipping. Not unless IRL retires.

Yeah, just like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Nancy Johnson, and forty more were all unbeatable since they always won in landslides. Apparently winning by 9.8% against a nobody signifies that they're untouchable.

Yeah, running 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket suggests you're pretty much untouchable.

Didn't Gene Taylor run 60 points ahead of the top of the ticket?

Taylor 74.54%
McCay, III 25.46%

McCain 67.6%
Obama 31.2%

So, a 43 point difference (rounded) if we go by % of the vote received, and a 85 point difference (rounded) if we go by margin.

[Devout Centrist]

Manchin's way more of a Democrat than Richard Shelby and Zell Miller were.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Manchin's way more of a Democrat than Richard Shelby and Zell Miller were.

Why not make the bar even lower and mention Larry McDonald?

[Roronoa D. Law]

FL-27 would be one of the first district to flip if 2018 became a nationalized election. Not to mention IRL district is much more democratic after the redrawing. I think this district will be determined by Cuban turnout and whether they will come out in a Trump midterm.

[Donerail]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

[Figueira]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

[Donerail]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

She has a local machine that has allowed her to be comfortably re-elected despite the district's results at a presidential level. As seen in 2016, that machine works effectively even when there are great prevailing headwinds at the top of the ticket. Unless something causes that machine to falter, and there's been no evidence to suggest that it will, there is no reason to believe it will be less capable of getting her elected than it was in 2016.

[Blackacre]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

She has a local machine that has allowed her to be comfortably re-elected despite the district's results at a presidential level. As seen in 2016, that machine works effectively even when there are great prevailing headwinds at the top of the ticket. Unless something causes that machine to falter, and there's been no evidence to suggest that it will, there is no reason to believe it will be less capable of getting her elected than it was in 2016.

...You know what, those are very solid points. I'm not saying IRL is doomed, but that she can't take her re-election for granted. But if she has solid machinery that can help her, then I'm wrong. Thanks for pointing that out

[Figueira]

Yeah, by that logic, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor would have been untouchable. (I wish they were tho)

Do you have evidence of a broader shift similar to that which destroyed the Blue Dogs happening among Cuban Republicans? Is there a national issue similar to the ACA that candidates like IRL can be tied to (and no, "Donald Trump" doesn't count)? If not, "duh other politicians lost" is an asinine and meaningless point. I don't see any reason to believe that the fundamentals that allow Cuban Republicans (at all levels) to win in Dade districts that go heavily Dem at a presidential level have shifted in such a way that IRL's now vulnerable.

I mean, the district voted for Clinton by 20 points. Saying she's "untouchable" because she ran 30 points ahead of Trump in a very, very Democratic district makes no logical sense.

She has a local machine that has allowed her to be comfortably re-elected despite the district's results at a presidential level. As seen in 2016, that machine works effectively even when there are great prevailing headwinds at the top of the ticket. Unless something causes that machine to falter, and there's been no evidence to suggest that it will, there is no reason to believe it will be less capable of getting her elected than it was in 2016.

...You know what, those are very solid points. I'm not saying IRL is doomed, but that she can't take her re-election for granted. But if she has solid machinery that can help her, then I'm wrong. Thanks for pointing that out

Again, she won by 10 points against a nobody. If people hate Republicans enough, they will vote her out.

[Donerail]

Treating ILR like she is unbeatable is the recipe for allowing Republicans to retain control of the House. Winning by 9.8% against a nobody is extremely underwhelming, but if people like you want to write off extremely winnable seats like that because MUH ENTRENCHED, then good luck ever winning back the House. JJR would instantly make the race a tossup against her and probably lean/likely D if she retired.

And therein lies the issue. Fuhrman was a nobody, but he had a decent profile and a good local connection (his wife was pregnant during most of the campaign in a Zika transmission area). More importantly, he was a self-funder, important given the continual financial dysfunction of the FDP. Part of the challenge in taking on a candidate backed by a political machine is a weak bench—the offices that would normally make up your bench against a Congresswoman are even more tightly controlled by the machine, so there's virtually no chance for developing talent. JJR's a great candidate, but before 2016 he was the only (!) Latino Democrat in either chamber from Dade County, and I doubt he gives up a newly-won State Senate seat for a quixotic run against IRL. It'd be bloody, and he'd more likely than not end up out of office entirely.

JJR's win in the State Senate race (as well as wins for Asencio and Baez in open R-held seats and Duran in a competitive race for JJR's old House seat) is an encouraging sign that voters may be changing their patterns (the county's always had a lot of ticket-splitting among its Latino community), but breaking the machine doesn't just require pouring money into a candidate against IRL—it starts with recruiting candidates who can compete better in Dade. I do think that winning this seat is gonna be essential to future House majorities (and as an FDP member/former employee, I have a personal investment in doing so), but Democrats won't win through candidate recruitment and fundraising alone. Instead of pouring money into a congressional campaign, Democrats need to build up a local organization that's at least somewhat comparable to the one Republicans have developed. In 2018, five State House districts in Dade (all won by Clinton) will be open due to term limits. Winning those seats, not going after IRL, is what's essential to building the party organization in Dade, and would make FL-27 an easy layup when IRL retires in a term or two (as well as providing a good bench for FL-26 and FL-25, good Senate candidates in 36/39/40, etc).

[publicunofficial]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.