Sabato Initial Senate Rankings

[Xing]

I think some people are jumping the gun a bit on GA-06. Yes, it's looking more competitive now, but I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it a Toss-Up.

[publicunofficial]

I think some people are jumping the gun a bit on GA-06. Yes, it's looking more competitive now, but I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it a Toss-Up.

FWIW, Sabato's change makes it unanimous amongst the big 3 (Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg).

[Figueira]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

He made that and the OH-1 change based on the surprising closeness of Kansas 4 Special. However, he somehow still justified starting KS-4 at Safe R for '18. Weird, I know.

[Figueira]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

He made that and the OH-1 change based on the surprising closeness of Kansas 4 Special. However, he somehow still justified starting KS-4 at Safe R for '18. Weird, I know.

But why? Is Cincinnati similar to Wichita? Is it the "20 point swing" thing?

[publicunofficial]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

It's only a 51-45 Trump district, and Dems have a candidate in State Rep. Alicia Reece.

[Figueira]

House Race Ratings Changes:

KS-02 (Safe R -> Likely R)
GA-06 (Likely R -> Toss-Up)
MN-01 (Lean D -> Toss-Up)
OH-01 (Safe R -> Likely R)

CO-07 remains Safe D despite Perlmutter's retirement. PA-10 (Special) is rated Safe R.

What happened in OH-01?

It's only a 51-45 Trump district, and Dems have a candidate in State Rep. Alicia Reece.

Got it. Makes sense.

[Young Moderate Republican]

Texas could flip.   I'm not buying that Cruz is unbeatable.   Likely R is fine.

The list looks okay otherwise, maybe move Nevada to tossup possibly.  

Somewhat related- Dianne Feinstein, Ben Cardin, and Tom Carper all need to retire.   Bill Nelson can stick around one more term.

I totally agree regarding TX and Cruz.  If Joaquin Castro runs (which it appear likely)... its a total Turnout Game.  Texas 2014 mid-term elections only had 28.5% turnout.  In a state that is 45% minority w/ the 1st major mexican american Dem candidate to run for Gov or Senator (at least in a long while)... Turnout for Castro could be unusually high.  And Cruz could struggle to inspire  Republican turnout.

Because its a midterm... and Cruz is the opponent- Castro has the voters to win (its a matter of if he can turn the out)

Democrats tried the turnout game. That was in 2014... Read the story of Battleground Texas.

[McGovernForPrez]

Texas could flip.   I'm not buying that Cruz is unbeatable.   Likely R is fine.

The list looks okay otherwise, maybe move Nevada to tossup possibly.  

Somewhat related- Dianne Feinstein, Ben Cardin, and Tom Carper all need to retire.   Bill Nelson can stick around one more term.

In fairness Trump's election has activated a large portion of the Hispanic electorate that weren't previously voting before. This time Trump will be the sitting president during the midterm, meaning that heightened turnout will probably continue. Don't think Beto wins, but I don't think this is comparable to 2014.

I totally agree regarding TX and Cruz.  If Joaquin Castro runs (which it appear likely)... its a total Turnout Game.  Texas 2014 mid-term elections only had 28.5% turnout.  In a state that is 45% minority w/ the 1st major mexican american Dem candidate to run for Gov or Senator (at least in a long while)... Turnout for Castro could be unusually high.  And Cruz could struggle to inspire  Republican turnout.

Because its a midterm... and Cruz is the opponent- Castro has the voters to win (its a matter of if he can turn the out)

Democrats tried the turnout game. That was in 2014... Read the story of Battleground Texas.

[Gass3268]

Fresh set of updates!

[TheSaint250]

Fresh set of updates!

I can't see Diaz-Balart losing. He won with over 60% of the vote last time.

[Gass3268]

Some adjustments:

ME-Senate

Lean Indy/Dem -> Likely Indy/Dem

MN-Senate

Likely Dem -> Safe Dem

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

MT-At Large

Likely Rep -> Lean Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

WV-03

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

Source

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Fresh set of updates!

Randy Hultgren will not lose. Disagree with moving from Safe to Likely.

Only way he'll lose is if he supports a tax reform package that would neuter the deduction for property taxes. The only thing suburban Republicans that are plentiful in Hultgren's district care about are pocketbook issues. And if those 250k household income families lose their valuable property tax deduction, they'll revolt.

[TheSaint250]

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

I think he's factoring in the possibility of a huge Democratic wave.  But I agree with you; it seems inconceivable that these would flip even in a D tsunami.

[Mehmentum]

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

At least for Oklahoma, Gubernatorial elections are very swingy.  We have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and Republican governors in Vermont and Massachusetts.

[Figueira]

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

At least for Oklahoma, Gubernatorial elections are very swingy.  We have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and Republican governors in Vermont and Massachusetts.

Basically. I don't think you can even justify calling any open gubernatorial races Safe this far out.

[Nyvin]

Ok-Governor

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

SC-05

Safe Rep -> Likely Rep

I 100% don't get these.  From what I understand, even with Fallin's bad approval ratings, both seats will remain firmly in the Republicans' column.

Governors aren't as associated with the national parties as Senators or Representatives are.

[MT Treasurer]

New changes:

[Virginiá]

^ Just to note that Sabato stated Rick Scott's ability to provide enormous self-funding in what is an expensive state gives him an advantage most others wouldn't have.

[MT Treasurer]

I really don't know why so many people think NV is a Tossup in a Democratic wave. It's not as if Heller is a particularly strong candidate either.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I really don't know why so many people think NV is a Tossup in a Democratic wave. It's not as if Heller is a particularly strong candidate either.

Major Prognosticators feel it's best to give the benefit of the doubt to the incumbent when the election is many months away, due to the fact that, historically speaking, the incumbent reelection rate is very high.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This will be a wave year.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I still have Alabama as Lean R.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I still have Alabama as Lean R.

Not a tossup?