The odds of a Trump resignation

[impactreps]

Given that the past month has been a very rocky start for a newly inaugurated President, and given news reports that Trump is already wary of the difficulties of being President, what are the odds that he resigns before the end of 2017?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Pure fantasy.

[pbrower2a]

Eventually he will need to admit that he just isn't up to the job of President. He has always been slow to admit to a failure of any kind, and he has defended his moral lapses and certifiable delusions long after others would recognize a need to make changes in what they do.

[dead0man]

Just north of 50%.

[Nyvin]

20-25%

[JA]

0% and anyone who actually thinks Trump would ever willingly resign are delusional.

[Babeuf]

Somewhere between 0 and 1%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Somewhere between 0 and 1%.

[The_Doctor]

0-1% chance. North of 50% if a major scandal breaks in 2018/2019.

[RINO Tom]

0% and anyone who actually thinks Trump would ever willingly resign are is delusional.

Completely agree with this, except for your British speech!

[elcorazon]

I'd say zero based on Trump's unwillingness to admit failure, but given the scandals and his apparent unhappiness with the job, I'd vote 1-24% with the reality being closer to 1 than 24. Perhaps I'd bump it up some if you said any time during the term rather than this year, but for any investigation to get to fruition under this Republican Congress, regardless of the level of corruption, seems unlikely to occur that quickly.

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit gives Trump a 75% chance of still being president at year's end, though that doesn't specify if he would leave the presidency by resignation, death, or impeachment.

Betfair is giving Trump a ~51% chance of staying on as president to the end of his four year term.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Predictit gives Trump a 75% chance of still being president at year's end, though that doesn't specify if he would leave the presidency by resignation, death, or impeachment.

Betfair is giving Trump a ~51% chance of staying on as president to the end of his four year term.

You really need a life, Mr. Modem. 

[PeteB]

Short of being caught in an unconstitutional or treasonous act, and being given a choice of "Resign or Be Impeached", the chances of a Trump resignation are almost negligible.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Nah, I think there is a chance he will be the first president to leave simply because he is bored.

[Person Man]

Predictit gives Trump a 75% chance of still being president at year's end, though that doesn't specify if he would leave the presidency by resignation, death, or impeachment.

Betfair is giving Trump a ~51% chance of staying on as president to the end of his four year term.

I will buy it that the chaces of him staying are roughly linear over the next 8 years to about 20% at the end of year 8 and then only reaching a negligible number by 2030ish.

[Crumpets]

Absolutely zilch.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Somewhere between 0 and 1%.

[Virginiá]

Actually if Trump's primary goal here is to stroke his ego and add more zeros to his bank account, then it's not that difficult to see him resigning maybe a couple years in, assuming the heat keeps getting turned up on him and things keep getting more difficult. Imagine if Democrats did somehow take back the House, and they begin relentless investigations into his administration. Might Trump, already having accrued many lucrative deals for himself, want to step down to avoid further scrutiny/headaches? It's not like he would have to admit he did anything wrong. He could simply say the Washington elite have made it impossible to Make America Great Again, or, you know, something like that. This would of course be the traditional Trump strategy - blame everyone else and take no responsibility, ever.

[Stranger in a strange land]

My prediction remains that his approval ratings will bottom out at around 25% in early-mid 2018 and he'll resign after the GOP loses the House in the 2018 midterms. Until then, there will be a major scandal every 1-2 months, and at some point McConnell and Ryan will decide it isn't worth carrying water for him.

[Virginiá]

Actually if Trump's primary goal here is to stroke his ego and add more zeros to his bank account, then it's not that difficult to see him resigning maybe a couple years in, assuming the heat keeps getting turned up on him and things keep getting more difficult. Imagine if Democrats did somehow take back the House, and they begin relentless investigations into his administration. Might Trump, already having accrued many lucrative deals for himself, want to step down to avoid further scrutiny/headaches? It's not like he would have to admit he did anything wrong. He could simply say the Washington elite have made it impossible to Make America Great Again, or, you know, something like that. This would of course be the traditional Trump strategy - blame everyone else and take no responsibility, ever.

But if his cult sees that he couldn't trample the Washington elite, what will they do? I thought he was the answer to their prayers?

Maybe tune out of politics and become bitter for a couple election cycles? Not sure. Morbid as it is, Trump's base skews older so it's not like it would present a long-long-term problem anyhow.

Trump hasn't always been against doing things that make him look bad so long as he doesn't have to admit he was wrong. If he can convince himself it is someone else's fault, I'm sure it becomes a lot easier for him. Plus, I might add, I feel like Trump has always wanted to be POTUS more for power and prestige, and once he finds that he has less power than he thought and far less prestige (given his negative antics), I don't see why he wouldn't want to cut it short if he already got himself paid, so to speak.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Actually if Trump's primary goal here is to stroke his ego and add more zeros to his bank account, then it's not that difficult to see him resigning maybe a couple years in, assuming the heat keeps getting turned up on him and things keep getting more difficult. Imagine if Democrats did somehow take back the House, and they begin relentless investigations into his administration. Might Trump, already having accrued many lucrative deals for himself, want to step down to avoid further scrutiny/headaches? It's not like he would have to admit he did anything wrong. He could simply say the Washington elite have made it impossible to Make America Great Again, or, you know, something like that. This would of course be the traditional Trump strategy - blame everyone else and take no responsibility, ever.

But if his cult sees that he couldn't trample the Washington elite, what will they do? I thought he was the answer to their prayers?

Maybe tune out of politics and become bitter for a couple election cycles? Not sure. Morbid as it is, Trump's base skews older so it's not like it would present a long-long-term problem anyhow.

Trump hasn't always been against doing things that make him look bad so long as he doesn't have to admit he was wrong. If he can convince himself it is someone else's fault, I'm sure it becomes a lot easier for him. Plus, I might add, I feel like Trump has always wanted to be POTUS more for power and prestige, and once he finds that he has less power than he thought and far less prestige (given his negative antics), I don't see why he wouldn't want to cut it short if he already got himself paid, so to speak.

Somone should start a crowdfunding campaign to buy him out. Just a big pool of committed money that he gets after he resigns.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

You guys would rather have Pence?  RIP libs if that happens.

[publicunofficial]

It's more likely he's voted incompetent by his Cabinent than he willingly resigns.

[justfollowingtheelections]

He obviously won't resign, but he's definitely not running again in 2020.