VA-Quinnipiac: Both Dems lead GE

[RogueBeaver]

Dem primary is 19-19 & Gillespie leads with 24%, everyone else in single digits.

[Gass3268]

Lean D for sure

[Maxwell]

lol but i was told that Perriello saying that weird comment would sink his campaign!

[The Other Castro]

lol but i was told that Perriello saying that weird comment would sink his campaign!

That just happened, this poll was before that.

[GlobeSoc]

Lean D, Trump effect may destroy the Virginia Republicans.

[publicunofficial]

Primary:

Northam - 19%
Perriello - 19%

Gillespie - 24%
Stewart - 7%
Wagner - 5%
Riggleman - 2%



General

Northam - 41
Gillespie - 35

Northam - 42
Stewart - 31

Northam - 42
Wagner - 33

Northam - 42
Riggleman - 31

Perriello - 43
Gillespie - 36

Perriello - 44
Stewart - 31

Perriello - 43
Wagner - 32

Perriello - 43
Riggleman - 30


TOM PERRIMENTUM

[The Other Castro]

Hmm Perriello leads Gillespie by more than Northam does. Interesting.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean D, Trump effect may destroy the Virginia Republicans.

You can't destroy something that's basically already dead. Republicans would have lost this race even with Clinton in the White House.

Hmm Perriello leads Gillespie by more than Northam does. Interesting.

I still think Northam is the more electable candidate, though. Not that it matters since both would beat Gillespie relatively easily, but still, you shouldn't take anything for granted...

[GlobeSoc]

Lean D, Trump effect may destroy the Virginia Republicans.

You can't destroy something that's basically already dead.

Hmm Perriello leads Gillespie by more than Northam does. Interesting.

I still think Northam is the more electable candidate, though. Not that it matters since both would beat Gillespie relatively easily, but still...

They still have control of the state legislatures.

[MT Treasurer]

They still have control of the state legislatures.

Yeah, I know. I was talking about statewide and federal races, which are far more important.

[Virginiá]

They still have control of the state legislatures.

Yeah, I know. I was talking about statewide and federal races, which are far more important.

Well the legislature has the most ability to enact policy change, obviously. Even with a Democratic governor, they can put things on the ballot to be voted on. Given that one Democrat governor can put a halt to the GOP's agenda (provided their majorities are not veto-proof), it certainly makes that office very powerful but the scope of its power is mainly defensive and not offensive.

At any rate, I think it is important to note here that the State Senate is only 21-19 R, and the VA GOP's only real remaining power in the state comes from the House of Delegates, which even with a significantly gerrymandered map, seems to be weakening - at least if you take presidential results as any kind of omen.

Also something I find kind of humerous, but if you look at how political power in Virginia has evolved since Eisenhower, it took so long for Republicans to take control of the legislature that by the time they finally did it, the state was already trending Democratic again, and a succession of Democratic governors has meant that since the legislature began flipping to Rs, Republicans have only had a combined 4 years of unified control. Given what is going on right now, if Democrats hold the Gov office this year, Republicans will likely never have a chance to enact a conservative agenda in Virginia - at least not for any prolonged period of time.

[Vosem]

Would Perriello be a 2020 possibility if he wins? He has a record of competing in the sort of working-class rural territory Democrats need, has the progressive credentials not to tank in the primary, has the foreign-policy credentials to actually serve as President, has stronger links to the Obama Administration than anyone currently being floated except Biden (who's unlikely to actually run), and even if he runs and does poorly, if he focuses on rural areas he can act as a spoiler for Sanders, who the Obama people/Democratic establishment generally are unlikely to want to see doing well.

Keep in mind that Christie won NJ-Gov in 2009 and then led some hypothetical polls of the 2012 field where he was included. A 2018 freshman is unlikely to be a serious 2020 contender, but a 2017 freshman definitely could be.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Would Perriello be a 2020 possibility if he wins? He has a record of competing in the sort of working-class rural territory Democrats need, has the progressive credentials not to tank in the primary, has the foreign-policy credentials to actually serve as President, has stronger links to the Obama Administration than anyone currently being floated except Biden (who's unlikely to actually run), and even if he runs and does poorly, if he focuses on rural areas he can act as a spoiler for Sanders, who the Obama people/Democratic establishment generally are unlikely to want to see doing well.

Keep in mind that Christie won NJ-Gov in 2009 and then led some hypothetical polls of the 2012 field where he was included. A 2018 freshman is unlikely to be a serious 2020 contender, but a 2017 freshman definitely could be.

Yeah, 3 years are a lot, plus by that point he would actually be nearing the end of his single term. He can't be blamed for running for President by then.

[windjammer]

They still have control of the state legislatures.

Yeah, I know. I was talking about statewide and federal races, which are far more important.

Well the legislature has the most ability to enact policy change, obviously. Even with a Democratic governor, they can put things on the ballot to be voted on. Given that one Democrat governor can put a halt to the GOP's agenda (provided their majorities are not veto-proof), it certainly makes that office very powerful but the scope of its power is mainly defensive and not offensive.

At any rate, I think it is important to note here that the State Senate is only 21-19 R, and the VA GOP's only real remaining power in the state comes from the House of Delegates, which even with a significantly gerrymandered map, seems to be weakening - at least if you take presidential results as any kind of omen.

Also something I find kind of humerous, but if you look at how political power in Virginia has evolved since Eisenhower, it took so long for Republicans to take control of the legislature that by the time they finally did it, the state was already trending Democratic again, and a succession of Democratic governors has meant that since the legislature began flipping to Rs, Republicans have only had a combined 4 years of unified control. Given what is going on right now, if Democrats hold the Gov office this year, Republicans will likely never have a chance to enact a conservative agenda in Virginia - at least not for any prolonged period of time.

I expect the Pubs to keep the VA House something like 55-45 majority, the state senate should flip in 2019 21-19 in 2019

[Suburbia]

The Va. House of Delegates will remain R in 2017, as a check and balance if Northam or Perriello wins. Checks and balances.

The Virginia State Senate may flip slightly to D.

Virginia is still a lean D state, but a Republican can win Virginia under the right circumstances.

This 2017 VA-GOV race is Lean D/Tossup. Period.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the Clinton loss, and a competetive Senate race at stake too, Gillispie would have won.  But, now Northam will win.

[krazen1211]

They still have control of the state legislatures.

Yeah, I know. I was talking about statewide and federal races, which are far more important.

The State Senate districts in Virginia were heavily gerrymandered by the Democratic party. McDonnell did a very good job at applying leverage and getting some modifications made.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean D, Trump effect may destroy the Virginia Republicans.

You can't destroy something that's basically already dead. Republicans would have lost this race even with Clinton in the White House.

Hmm Perriello leads Gillespie by more than Northam does. Interesting.

I still think Northam is the more electable candidate, though. Not that it matters since both would beat Gillespie relatively easily, but still, you shouldn't take anything for granted...

You're way too black-and-white about the political situation in states like New Hampshire (the Republicans hold the Governorship and both houses of the state legislature), Virginia (Republicans hold the state legislature and Gillespie has at the very least a real shot of winning despite being a pretty weak candidate), Missouri (Jason Kander – who is almost certainly more liberal than McCaskill – and arguably even Chris Koster would've won had they not been running in a Republican wave election; even then Kander might've won if it hadn't also been a Presidential year).  It's not a zero-sum game where a state is either Titanium D or Safe R in every single election.  Candidate-quality, fundraising abilities, local issues, the national mood, etc all matter a great deal (which isn't to downplay the significance of a state's natural lean).  A Charlie Baker can win in Massachusetts and a Heidi Heitkamp can win in North Dakota. 

[Mr.Phips]

They still have control of the state legislatures.

Yeah, I know. I was talking about statewide and federal races, which are far more important.

The State Senate districts in Virginia were heavily gerrymandered by the Democratic party. McDonnell did a very good job at applying leverage and getting some modifications made.

Democrats only were allowed to beef up the seats that they already held.  A total Dem gerrymander would have created new Dem seats in Virginia Beach, the Roanoke area, and Northern Virginia.