Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump

[RINO Tom]

ofcourse they swung when hillary loves wallstreet

1) If you think that's some horrible thing, there's a party for you, and it ain't the GOP.

2) So does Trump and literally every politician besides a few Democrats.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

It's important to note that not all of these towns were staunchly Republican before Donald Trump.

Atherton, CA is an extremely wealthy town that only narrowly voted for Romney in 2012 and overwhelmingy voted for Obama in 2008. The median household income in Atherton is in the 7 figures by some estimates ($1 million+ a year)

2008 Atherton Results
Obama 57.6%
McCain 41.1%

2012 Atherton Results
Romney 51.5%
Obama 46.6%

2016 Atherton Results
Clinton: 64.8%
Trump: 27.5%

Also, it's important to note that most of the cities voted for Obama in 2008 as well.

I think people forget how well Obama did 2008 with wealthy voters.

Obama won voters making $200k+ by 6 points in 2008 and lost voters making $250k+ in 2012 by around 10 points. A 16 point swing!

Most of the towns I listed in the OP voted for pretty overwhelmingly Obama in 2008, overwhelmingly for Romney in 2012, and overwhelmingly for Hillary 2016.

I think this proves my theory that wealthy voters are very elastic. Most of these towns saw huge swings between 2008-2012-2016.

Voting for Obama 2008-Romney 2012-Clinton 2016 seemed to be norm for wealthy voters

Obama did very well with wealthy voters in 2008 due to the Great Recession and Bush's unpopularity

However, they overwhelmingly voted for Romney in 2012 due to Obama's proposals to massively raise taxes on the rich, increase regulations, etc

However, Hillary did very well with wealthy voters in 2016 due to Trump's stances on trade/globalization/immigration (polls have shown that wealthy voters are overwhelmingly pro-immigration and see more immigration as a huge positive for our country), Trump's behavior, his gaffes, his extremism and the fact that he was perceived as a "nutjob" by many affluent voters, his unpredictability, etc

I disagree with this notion that this the only election where Democrats could win wealthy voters. I think you guys are forget that Obama did better with wealthy voters in 2008 than Clinton did in 2016. A lot of the towns I mentioned heavily voted for Obama in 2008, heavily voted for Romney in 2012, and heavily voted for Hillary in 2016.

Although I do agree with the notion that the other GOP candidates (except for Cruz) would've probably easily won most of these towns against Hillary. Donald Trump was probably the worst possible fit for affluent voters.

[Seattle]

I wonder what the swing was in Medina, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, Clyde Hill, Woodway, and Union/Novelty Hill, WA.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

In the long term, I think wealthy voters will continue to trend D

Yes, he was about the worst possible candidate for them.

True, but I think these places are trending D in the long term anyway.

I know you think that.  I know Eharding thinks that.  I struggle to see why, though.  There will ALWAYS be a high floor in these places for a Republican as long as the GOP is asking for more "pro-rich" policies than the Democrats are; do you honestly see that flipping?  Ever?  Even if you believe that the GOP is going full Trumpist in EVERY geographic area for decades (unlikely in my opinion, especially given that Trumpist GOPers tend to be older and in shrinking areas of the country, but whatever), there is at least as much evidence that the Democratic Party will continue to move to the left economically with millenials becoming more prominent in the party.

Because at some point, the anti-intellectual/professional vibes that are prevalent among the GOP's base and elected officials begin to outweigh the benefits of a lower tax bracket.

^^^

Most polls have shown that the wealthy are becoming more on liberal in economic issues (although a majority still hold conservative views on economic issues)

Also, the wealthy tend to be very socially liberal and are turned off by the anti-immigration, anti-professional/intellectual, anti-globalization, anti-gay marriage, and anti-science rhetoric coming from the GOP.

Many wealthy people don't mind paying an extra 3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on social issues.

And many wealthy voters hold liberal economic views and don't support cutting social programs that help the poor, support increasing the minimum wage, etc. Also, some wealthy voters find the GOP's "deficit hawk" additude to be a turn-off. Many of these people support more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy. For example, most major businesses are huge supporters of more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy, which the GOP doesn't want. Many wealthy voters don't mind paying a 2%-3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on most other issues.

Let's dispel with this fiction that all wealthy voters are economically conservative. A majority are, but there are still plenty on wealthy voters who hold liberal economic views.

But yes, the main reason why these wealthy communities swung so heavily D is because Trump was the nominee.

[RI]

I wonder what the swing was in Medina, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, Clyde Hill, Woodway, and Union/Novelty Hill, WA.

Medina
2012: Romney 51.6, Obama 47.1
2016: Clinton 57.5, Trump 33.2

Yarrow Point
2012: Romney 50.6, Obama 48.8
2016: Clinton 58.9, Trump 29.8

Hunts Point
2012: Romney 62.8, Obama 36.9
2016: Clinton 54.2, Obama 39.1

Clyde Hill
2012: Romney 52.9, Obama 45.6
2016: Clinton 56.2, Trump 32.5

Woodway
2012: Romney 51.2, Obama 47.1
2016: Clinton 52.8, Trump 37.2

[NOVA Green]

In the long term, I think wealthy voters will continue to trend D

Yes, he was about the worst possible candidate for them.

True, but I think these places are trending D in the long term anyway.

I know you think that.  I know Eharding thinks that.  I struggle to see why, though.  There will ALWAYS be a high floor in these places for a Republican as long as the GOP is asking for more "pro-rich" policies than the Democrats are; do you honestly see that flipping?  Ever?  Even if you believe that the GOP is going full Trumpist in EVERY geographic area for decades (unlikely in my opinion, especially given that Trumpist GOPers tend to be older and in shrinking areas of the country, but whatever), there is at least as much evidence that the Democratic Party will continue to move to the left economically with millenials becoming more prominent in the party.

Because at some point, the anti-intellectual/professional vibes that are prevalent among the GOP's base and elected officials begin to outweigh the benefits of a lower tax bracket.

^^^

Most polls have shown that the wealthy are becoming more on liberal in economic issues (although a majority still hold conservative views on economic issues)

Also, the wealthy tend to be very socially liberal and are turned off by the anti-immigration, anti-professional/intellectual, anti-globalization, anti-gay marriage, and anti-science rhetoric coming from the GOP.

Many wealthy people don't mind paying an extra 3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on social issues.

And many wealthy voters hold liberal economic views and don't support cutting social programs that help the poor, support increasing the minimum wage, etc. Also, some wealthy voters find the GOP's "deficit hawk" additude to be a turn-off. Many of these people support more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy. For example, most major businesses are huge supporters of more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy, which the GOP doesn't want. Many wealthy voters don't mind paying a 2%-3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on most other issues.

Let's dispel with this fiction that all wealthy voters are economically conservative. A majority are, but there are still plenty on wealthy voters who hold liberal economic views.

But yes, the main reason why these wealthy communities swung so heavily D is because Trump was the nominee.

How did your community vote in '12 and '16 Non Swing Voter, and can you provide us with some election results and swings in '12 and '16 in NoVA?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Woodside, CA:

Median annual household income: $246,042

I don't have 2012 data,  but I'm going to assume that it narrowly voted for Romney

2016:
Clinton: 57.2%
Trump: 21.8%

According to the San Mateo SoV, she did a bit better than that

2016:
Clinton: 68.4%
Trump: 24.8%

2012:
Obama: 54.1%
Romney: 43.5%

2008:
Obama: 63.6%
McCain: 35.2%

It turns out my data for Woodside was before all the votes were officially counted. Thanks for the info!
Donald Trump getting crushed in Woodside is not surprising, but I'm surprised that Woodside also voted overwhelmingly for Obama. Despite the fact that the town is very wealthy, it seems that it has always been overwhelmingly Democratic.

Since 2004, although Trump collapsed here compared to recent history

2004:  Kerry  55.9 - 43
2000:  Bush  50.5 - 45
1996:  Dole  49.3 - 40.4 - 5.7
1992:  Clinton  38.57 - 37.41 - 23.1

[King of Kensington]

Trump got 24.4% of the vote in New Trier Township IL, compared to Romney's 44.5%.

[RINO Tom]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

[King of Kensington]

Some wealthy Westchester towns (including that of the Clintons):

Scarsdale:

Trump 2016  19.8%
Romney 2012  40.1%

New Castle:

Trump 2016  21%
Romney 2012  36.7%

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

-What towns? Romney didn't even win DuPage County.

[RINO Tom]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

-What towns? Romney didn't even win DuPage County.

Scroll up, bro.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

-What towns? Romney didn't even win DuPage County.

Scroll up, bro.

-Fairfax? Marin? Nassau? Suffolk? Loudoun? Did Romney win any of these rich counties?

[NOVA Green]

I must have missed all of the posts in 2012 about how wealthy towns were rapidly going to trend R after how many Romney swung from Obama ... guess people didn't want it to be true as badly.

-What towns? Romney didn't even win DuPage County.

Scroll up, bro.

-Fairfax? Marin? Nassau? Suffolk? Loudoun? Did Romney win any of these rich counties?

I think we are drilling down to even lower than a county level for greater granularity....  even in county level results for the wealthiest counties you are going to see significant distortions in the data, since there are usually a significant amount of working and middle-class areas contained within these counties, that tend to be more heavily concentrated in Metro areas of the US.

[NOVA Green]

This is a really cool thread, and I like all of the crowdsourcing that has gone into pulling these numbers together from various members of the Atlas Community....

So, to summarize the collective findings we have data from the following states/ locations:

Washington:   No MHI data included.

King County----

Medina: +29% D Swing '12 to '16
Yarrow Point: +31% D Swing '12 to '16
Hunts Point: +41% D Swing '12 to '16
Clyde Hill: +29% D Swing '12 to '16
Woodbury: +20% D Swing '12 to '16

Oregon- MHI data included. Five wealthiest places in Oregon

Bethany- +22% D Swing '12 to '16        (Washington County)
Cedar Mill- +6% D Swing '12 to '16        (Washington County)
Happy Valley- +15% D Swing '12 to '16  (Clackamas County)
West Linn- +20% D Swing '12 to '16      (Clackamas County)
Lake Oswego- +17% D Swing '12 to '16  (Clackamas County)

California- MHI data included- 2 towns on the Bay Area Peninsula

Atherton- +42% D swing '12 to '16
Woodsville- +32% D swing '12 to '16

Michigan- No MHI data included and no swing data included

Birmingham (Oakland County)
East Grand Rapids (Kent County)

Illinois   No MHI data included nor total vote percentages

New Trier Township  (Cook County)..... -20% Republican decrease '12 to '16

New York     No MHI data nor total vote percentages

Scarsdale---- (Westchester County)   -20% Republican '12 to '16
New Castle-- (Westchester County)   -16% Republican '12 to '16

New Jersey--   MHI included

Millburn--- (Essex County)   +28% Dem Swing '12 to '16
Mountain Lakes--- (Morris County)    +29% Dem Swing '12 to '16
Montgomery--- (Somerset County)    +21% Dem Swing '12 to '16

Connecticut---- MHI Included

Fairfield County:

Darien- +43% Dem Swing
Greenwhich- +28% Dem Swing
New Canaan- +40% Dem Swing

Rhode Island- MHI included

East Greenwhich--- (Kent County)   +14% Dem Swing


Massachusetts-  MHI included

Weston-  (Essex County)    +37% Dem Swing
Norfolk- (Norfolk County)   +21% Dem Swing


Come on Atlas!!! We're still lacking a significant amount of data for wealthy areas in California, the Midwest, all of the South, and significant chunks of the Eastern seaboard including Metro DC and Philly, limited data on New York state.....

[Suburbia]

Madison, N.J. (Home of Drew University and suburban GOP roots)

2012:
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R): 50.3%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D): 48.6%

2016:
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D): 55.93%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 37.70%

[uti2]

His proposed tax cut also wasn't very thrilling for Fairfax County people because it arguably increased taxes for those in the 200-400K range, which is probably the bulk of the population in most of those precincts.

This is a key point that should be recognized. There are actually very few wealthy people, most wealthy regions are actually UMC, as long as a progressive dem keeps tax rates reasonable inside the 30s range for those income brackets, social issues will still take precedent and the people there will vote D anyway. They can tax those making 10 mil + at 60% and they won't care because it doesn't concern them.

[NOVA Green]

In the long term, I think wealthy voters will continue to trend D

Yes, he was about the worst possible candidate for them.

True, but I think these places are trending D in the long term anyway.

I know you think that.  I know Eharding thinks that.  I struggle to see why, though.  There will ALWAYS be a high floor in these places for a Republican as long as the GOP is asking for more "pro-rich" policies than the Democrats are; do you honestly see that flipping?  Ever?  Even if you believe that the GOP is going full Trumpist in EVERY geographic area for decades (unlikely in my opinion, especially given that Trumpist GOPers tend to be older and in shrinking areas of the country, but whatever), there is at least as much evidence that the Democratic Party will continue to move to the left economically with millenials becoming more prominent in the party.

Because at some point, the anti-intellectual/professional vibes that are prevalent among the GOP's base and elected officials begin to outweigh the benefits of a lower tax bracket.

^^^

Most polls have shown that the wealthy are becoming more on liberal in economic issues (although a majority still hold conservative views on economic issues)

Also, the wealthy tend to be very socially liberal and are turned off by the anti-immigration, anti-professional/intellectual, anti-globalization, anti-gay marriage, and anti-science rhetoric coming from the GOP.

Many wealthy people don't mind paying an extra 3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on social issues.

And many wealthy voters hold liberal economic views and don't support cutting social programs that help the poor, support increasing the minimum wage, etc. Also, some wealthy voters find the GOP's "deficit hawk" additude to be a turn-off. Many of these people support more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy. For example, most major businesses are huge supporters of more infrastructure spending and government investment in the economy, which the GOP doesn't want. Many wealthy voters don't mind paying a 2%-3% in taxes if it means voting for candidates who align with them on most other issues.

Let's dispel with this fiction that all wealthy voters are economically conservative. A majority are, but there are still plenty on wealthy voters who hold liberal economic views.

But yes, the main reason why these wealthy communities swung so heavily D is because Trump was the nominee.

How did your community vote in '12 and '16 Non Swing Voter, and can you provide us with some election results and swings in '12 and '16 in NoVA?

Check out this link for 2016:  http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1116.pdf

Go to Hunter Mill district a few pages down.  These are some of the very wealthy areas of Fairfax County. As you can see, many of the precincts were about 2 to 1 for Clinton... pretty consistent or maybe slightly better than Fairfax County as a whole.  Also look at Dranesville.

Check it out in 2012: http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1112.pdf

Still went for Obama but Obama didn't get the kind of margins Clinton did.

Trump cratered in a lot of the wealthier areas.  Trump even lost some areas that the GOP has been winning for years like Great Falls..  In other words, Democrats pretty much held their margins in the more urban parts of Fairfax while Trump and the GOP in generally did much worse in the wealthy neighborhoods.  If I were Barbara Comstock I'd be sh*tting myself.

A few reasons I think Trump did particularly bad in these areas:

1) All of these areas have been trending Dem. for years.  Clinton was going to do better than Obama based on that fact alone.

2) The wealthy parts of Fairfax are actually getting pretty diverse at a rapid clip... lots of diverse lawyers and the like moving in... the extension of the silver metro line is making it more appealing to city types. 

3) Fairfax is very liberal on social issues like gay marriage and abortion.  The only issue that fits OK for Republicans here is foreign policy but Trump was a wild card on that anyways and Clinton is pretty hawkish, so Trump didn't really even have an advantage there.  His proposed tax cut also wasn't very thrilling for Fairfax County people because it arguably increased taxes for those in the 200-400K range, which is probably the bulk of the population in most of those precincts.

Thanks NonSwingVoter!

So several things that are a bit problematic----

1.) the Hunter Mill District is so large in terms of population, and effectively includes over 10% of the county population, a whopping 125k population and an MHI of $123.3k, which certainly puts it into a relatively upper income part of the country, even in an extremely expensive real estate market like Metro DC.

2.) The links you posted unfortunately appear to include same day voting, so it's a bit more problematic when 20-25% of the population voted absentee to drill it down the precinct level....

Maybe there's another location where this data is available, but otherwise we will need to extrapolate based solely on same-day voting.

So---- I took the liberty of pulling up the five wealthiest places in Fairfax County and then cross-referenced against precinct names based upon the links you provided for '12 and '16.

http://statisticalatlas.com/county/Virginia/Fairfax-County/Household-Income#figure/place

Fairfax County- Wealthiest Towns

A.) Great Falls- MHI $ 225k/Yr- Pop 16.3k

71% White, 16% Asian, 6% Latino

2012: (43.4 D- 55.5 R)    +12.1 R
2016: (49.3 D- 43.4 R)    + 5.9  D        (+18% D Swing)

B.) Floris--- MHI $204k/Yr-- Pop 8.5k

55% White, 30% Asian, 7% Latino, 3% African-American

2012: (55.3 D- 43.4 R)    +11.9 D
2016: (59.8 D- 34.5 R)    +25.3 D     (+13% Dem Swing)

C.) Clifton--- MHI $189k/Yr--- Pop 241

2012: (37.5 D- 61.3 R)   +23.8 R
2016: (39.8 D- 52.5 R)   +12.7 R   (+11% Dem Swing)

D. Crosspointe--- MHI $188k/Yr- Pop 6.0k

I couldn't find a match for this against precinct names listed on the report provided.... is this the same place as Crossroads or is there another precinct name that should be used?

E.) Wolf Trap--- MHI $187k/Yr---  Pop 16.7k

80% White, 12% Asian, 4% Latino

2012: (51.3 D- 47.5 R)   +3.8 D
2016: (56.9 D- 32.6 R)   +24.3 D    (+20% Dem Swing)

Any ideas on what's going on in these particular wealthy communities?

I will let others comment on your observations regarding as to the *why* of the swing, my goal was to more to narrow down and pluck down the numbers for the wealthiest communities in Fairfax.

[King of Kensington]

Setting $250K as the minimum for "high income" ensures very few people are hit significantly by higher income taxes on the "rich."  And a taxable income of $250K is usually quite above a HH income of $250K given deductions etc.

[NOVA Green]

His proposed tax cut also wasn't very thrilling for Fairfax County people because it arguably increased taxes for those in the 200-400K range, which is probably the bulk of the population in most of those precincts.

This is a key point that should be recognized. There are actually very few wealthy people, most wealthy regions are actually UMC, as long as a progressive dem keeps tax rates reasonable inside the 30s range for those income brackets, social issues will still take precedent and the people there will vote D anyway. They can tax those making 10 mil + at 60% and they won't care because it doesn't concern them.

Exactly.  I (and most people I know) would gladly pay an extra 5K a year in taxes to make sure that Republicans aren't in office.  After itemizing deductions (which most people making over 200K a year do) the net impact of a 3 or 4% tax increase on money over 180K or so is not a big deal.  For Republicans to woo this group of voters they would need to propose deep cuts on taxes for the UMC... like something that will net $20K a year.  At that point I would consider voting for a moderate Republican. 

Of course they won't (and can't) do this because this is where the real tax money comes from (not from millionaires) and they need to pay for absurd military spending + Trump's wall.  I think we should go back to a system where those making $10 million + are taxed over 50%.  These people can clearly afford it.

Both of you have some compelling points----

1.) There aren't actually that many truly "wealthy" people if you solely use MHI as a barometer... Even adjusting for higher incomes in more expensive metro areas, much of that is channeled into ownership of expensive housing, which does not contribute to household income, although in terms of household net worth/assets there is obviously a major difference between those in the Upper Middle-Income bracket versus much of the rest of us..... Even someone selling their small older 3 bedroom ranch home in parts of OC can walk away with $350k in their pockets and buy a nice home out in the Mountains of the Rockies or Oregon and still have some extra cash to supplement their retirement.

2.) Agreed on increasing taxes for those making $10 Million + /Yr to 50%..... shoot this is significantly less than marginal tax rates for the wealthy under Republican President Eisenhower. Honestly, I think part of the reason for resentment of many WWC and small business owners against taxation policy over the past three to four decades is as much about the concept the big business and extremely wealthy individuals gaming the tax code, while many of these voters feel like they are getting the shaft and stuck with the bill.... This attitude transcends partisan affiliation.

I actually got a bigger tax cut under Obama than under George W. at that time just recently entering the ranks of the Middle-Class, and then the Republicans in Congress caused my Payroll taxes to go up significantly when they decided to sabotage the Social Security tax holiday for workers...

Pray tell what does UMC stand for?

[MarkD]

Interrupting to refer to another city no one has talked about yet, Ladue, MO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladue,_Missouri

My effort to calculate the 2012 and 2016 results is hampered by the fact that there are a couple of precincts that do not lie wholly within Ladue city limits. So ignoring one precinct that is shared with Clayton, and using a precinct that lies mostly in Ladue but also has the tiny town of Huntleigh as well as a little bit of Frontenac, here is the best I could do.

2012: 66.9% for Romney, 32.5% for Obama.
2016: 50.1% for Trump, 45.4% for Clinton.
Clinton had about 600 more votes than Obama; Romney had about 1150 more votes than Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- a few more data points from Cali....

Basically, I ran numbers for places in California with > $150k/Yr MHI (Since basically in the Bay Area and SoCal, much less than that would fall more into a "Middle Class" setting in some of the most expensive housing markets in the US) and then attempted to pull up the top three locations that fell within that category.

Honestly, I thought the exercise would be easier, but unfortunately the difficulties of trying to match individual precincts to "places" combined with the reporting variations between counties provided a bit more difficult than I had imagined....

So NoVA rules only include places in Cali with > $150k MHI and I'm still trying to figure out how to obtain more detailed data for some of the places on the list.... Also, idk about swings for or against Trump---- more an interest in how wealthy people voted in various communities throughout the US, so this is not "the greatest swings towards Clinton list"....

Santa Clara County (Wealthiest three places)

1.) Monte Sereno----  MHI $ 239k/Yr---- Pop 3.4k

(82% White, 12% Asian, 3% Latino, 1% African-American)

2012: (54 D- 44 R)    +10 D
2016: (65 D- 29 R)    +36 D    (+26% Dem Swing)

2.) Loyola---- Uninc---- MHI $238k/Yr

* Can't locate precinct results---- anyone want to help???

3.) Saratoga--- MHI $ 197k/Yr--- Pop 30.3k

(48% White, 45% Asian, 4% Latino)

* Asian-Americans: (Chinese-Americans constitute 20.6% of the population, Indian-Americans 14.3%, Korean-Americans 5.9%, Japanese-Americans 5.2%)

2012: (59 D- 39 R)    +20 D
2016: (69 D- 26 R)    +33 D         (+13% Dem Swing)


Los Angeles County- (Three Wealthiest Places)

1.) Rolling Hills-  MHI $ 227k/Yr-  Pop 1.6k

(68.0% White, 20.1% Asian, 4.4% Latino, 2.1% African-American)

Election Results: Unknown???

2.) Palo Verdes Estates- MHI $ 203k/Yr- Pop 13.5k

Election Results: Unknown

3.) Manhattan Beach- MHI $ 178k/Yr- Pop 35.3k

(77.4% White, 9.1% Asian, 8.7% Latino)

2012: (50 D- 48 R)    +2 D
2016: (61 D- 32 R)    +29 D     (+27% Dem Swing)----- These are not official results and likely with provisional ballots will have a higher Dem swing

4.) Malibu--- MHI $169k/Yr--- Pop 12.8k

(82% White, 7% Latino, 6% Asian, 1% African-American)

Election Results: Unknown

Alameda County- Only one community meets the > $150k/Yr MHI threshold

1.) Piedmont-   MHI $ 247k/Yr--- Pop 10.9k

(70% White, 19% Asian, 6% Latino)

2012: (75 D- 23 R)    +52 D
2016: (84 D- 11 R)    + 73 D    (+21% Dem Swing)


Marin County----

1.) Kentfield- Uninc Marin--- MHI $ 247k/Yr- Pop 6.5k

(88.4% White, 5.3% Latino, 2.3% Asian)

Election Results: Unknown--- I do have 2012 results, but not 2016 results...

2.) Sleepy Hollow- MHI $ 221k/Yr- Pop 2.7k

(83.3% White, 6.5% Asian, 3.4% Latino)

Election Results: Unknown

3.) Ross- MHI $ 201k/Yr- Pop 2.1k

2012: (57 D- 41 R)    +16 D
2016: (71 D- 20 R)    +51 D    (+35% Dem Swing)

Anyone want to fill in the blanks for Loyola in Santa Clara, the places listed in LA County and Marin County?

I can also add the top MHI communities in Orange and Contra Costa County if anyone has easy access to these numbers, since unfortunately, I could not locate the data on publicly available websites....

There are a few other counties in Cali where I will try to track down the data to meet the NoVA criteria for "wealthy towns" in Cali....

Cue RI or one of resident Cali experts with access to more easily accessible data than myself...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Compiled some SoCal numbers. Unfortunately, too lazy to put in demographics. Out of the 27 six-figure cities, Hillary won 18 compared to Obama's 8 in 2012. Income & population are based on the 2010 Census


Hidden Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $250k/Yr - Pop 2.3k

2012: Romney  55.1 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  58.1 - 36.8  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $223k/Yr - Pop 1.7k

2012: Romney  71.7 - 26.6
2016: Trump  58.8 - 35.2  (+21.5% Dem swing)

Palos Verdes Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $159k/Yr - Pop 13.4k

2012: Romney  61.7 - 36.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 44.1  (+30.4% Dem swing)

San Marino, Los Angeles County - MHI $154k/Yr - Pop 13.1k

2012: Romney  58 - 40.4
2016: Clinton  54.9 - 39.4  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $151k/Yr - Pop 8k

2012: Romney  58.8 - 38.9
2016: Clinton  49.2 - 44.4  (+24.8% Dem swing)

Villa Park, Orange County - MHI $150k/Yr - Pop 5.8k

2012: Romney  73.5 - 24.9
2016: Trump  62.8 - 31.4  (+17.2% Dem swing)

La Cañada Flintridge, Los Angeles County - MHI $148k/Yr - Pop 20.2k

2012: Romney  53.6 - 44.7
2016: Clinton  57 - 37.1  (+28.8% Dem swing)

Malibu, Los Angeles County - MHI $133k/Yr - Pop 12.7k

2012: Obama  57.6 - 39.9
2016: Clinton  64.4 - 30.1  (+16.6% Dem swing)

Manhattan Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $132k/Yr - Pop 35k

2012: Obama  50.3 - 47.6
2016: Clinton  62.7 - 30.9  (+29.1% Dem swing)

La Habra Heights, Los Angeles County - MHI $127k/Yr - Pop 5.3k

2012: Romney  64.5 - 32.9
2016: Trump  55.7 - 38.9  (+14.7% Dem swing)

Calabasas, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 22.8k

2012: Obama  54.8 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  62.5 - 31.2  (+18.7% Dem swing)

Bradbury, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 932

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Trump  47.9 - 47.1  (+16.4% Dem swing)

Rancho Palos Verdes, Los Angeles County - MHI $116k/Yr - Pop 41.5k

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Clinton  52.9 - 41.8  (+19.3% Dem swing)

Yorba Linda, Orange County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 63.5k

2012: Romney  68.2 - 29.7
2016: Trump  59 - 35  (+14.5% Dem swing)

Eastvale, Riverside County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 53.4k

2012: Obama  55.9 - 42.3
2016: Clinton  55.3 - 40.1  (+1.6% Dem swing)

Del Mar, San Diego County - MHI $114k/Yr - Pop 4.1k

2012: Obama  53.2 - 45
2016: Clinton  61.8 - 32.4  (+21.3% Dem swing)

Westlake Village, Los Angeles County - MHI $113k/Yr - Pop 8.2k

2012: Romney 52.1 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  53.6 - 41.3  (+18.2% Dem swing)

Indian Wells, Riverside County - MHI $111k/Yr - Pop 4.9k

2012: Romney 73.2 - 25.8
2016: Trump  65.6 - 31.2  (+13.1% Dem swing)

Newport Beach, Orange County - MHI $109k/Yr - Pop 84.4k

2012: Romney 65.8 - 32.3
2016: Trump  54  - 39.9  (+19.4% Dem swing)

Agoura Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $108k/Yr - Pop 20.3k

2012: Obama 53.1 - 44.6
2016: Clinton  59.6 - 35.2  (+16% Dem swing)

Rancho Santa Margarita, Orange County - MHI $104k/Yr - Pop 47.7k

2012: Romney  60.9 - 37.1
2016: Trump  52.6 - 40.1  (+11.3% Dem swing)

Moorpark, Ventura County - MHI $103k/Yr - Pop 34.1k

2012: Romney  51.3 - 46.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 41.6  (+12.5% Dem swing)

Chino Hills, San Bernardino County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 74.7k

2012: Romney  51.9 - 46.3
2016: Clinton  49.8 - 45.4  (+10.1% Dem swing)

Hermosa Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 19.4k

2012: Obama  55.6 - 40.8
2016: Clinton  64.2 - 27.6  (+21.7% Dem swing)

Walnut, Los Angeles County - MHI $101k/Yr - Pop 29.2k

2012: Obama  57.8 - 40.1
2016: Clinton  62 - 33.1  (+11.2% Dem swing)

Thousand Oaks, Ventura County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 125.6k

2012: Romney  51.7 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  50.8 - 41.3  (+15.1% Dem swing)

Laguna Niguel, Orange County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 62.8k

2012: Romney  57.8 - 40.5
2016: Trump  47.8 - 46.1  (+15.6% Dem swing)

[NOVA Green]

Compiled some SoCal numbers. Unfortunately, too lazy to put in demographics. Out of the 27 six-figure cities in SoCal, Hillary won 18 compared to Obama's 8 in 2012.


Hidden Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $250k/Yr - Pop 2.3k

2012: Romney  55.1 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  58.1 - 36.8  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $223k/Yr - Pop 1.7k

2012: Romney  71.7 - 26.6
2016: Trump  58.8 - 35.2  (+21.5% Dem swing)

Palos Verdes Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $159k/Yr - Pop 13.4k

2012: Romney  61.7 - 36.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 44.1  (+30.4% Dem swing)

San Marino, Los Angeles County - MHI $154k/Yr - Pop 13.1k

2012: Romney  58 - 40.4
2016: Clinton  54.9 - 39.4  (+33.1% Dem swing)

Rolling Hills Estates, Los Angeles County - MHI $151k/Yr - Pop 8k

2012: Romney  58.8 - 38.9
2016: Clinton  49.2 - 44.4  (+24.8% Dem swing)

Villa Park, Orange County - MHI $150k/Yr - Pop 5.8k

2012: Romney  73.5 - 24.9
2016: Trump  62.8 - 31.4  (+17.2% Dem swing)

La Cañada Flintridge, Los Angeles County - MHI $148k/Yr - Pop 20.2k

2012: Romney  53.6 - 44.7
2016: Clinton  57 - 37.1  (+28.8% Dem swing)

Malibu, Los Angeles County - MHI $133k/Yr - Pop 12.7k

2012: Obama  57.6 - 39.9
2016: Clinton  64.4 - 30.1  (+16.6% Dem swing)

Manhattan Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $132k/Yr - Pop 35k

2012: Obama  50.3 - 47.6
2016: Clinton  62.7 - 30.9  (+29.1% Dem swing)

La Habra Heights, Los Angeles County - MHI $127k/Yr - Pop 5.3k

2012: Romney  64.5 - 32.9
2016: Trump  55.7 - 38.9  (+14.7% Dem swing)

Calabasas, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 22.8k

2012: Obama  54.8 - 43.2
2016: Clinton  62.5 - 31.2  (+18.7% Dem swing)

Bradbury, Los Angeles County - MHI $118k/Yr - Pop 932

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Trump  47.9 - 47.1  (+16.4% Dem swing)

Rancho Palos Verdes, Los Angeles County - MHI $116k/Yr - Pop 41.5k

2012: Romney  53 - 44.8
2016: Clinton  52.9 - 41.8  (+19.3% Dem swing)

Yorba Linda, Orange County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 63.5k

2012: Romney  68.2 - 29.7
2016: Trump  59 - 35  (+14.5% Dem swing)

Eastvale, Riverside County - MHI $115k/Yr - Pop 53.4k

2012: Obama  55.9 - 42.3
2016: Clinton  55.3 - 40.1  (+1.6% Dem swing)

Del Mar, San Diego County - MHI $114k/Yr - Pop 4.1k

2012: Obama  53.2 - 45
2016: Clinton  61.8 - 32.4  (+21.3% Dem swing)

Westlake Village, Los Angeles County - MHI $113k/Yr - Pop 8.2k

2012: Romney 52.1 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  53.6 - 41.3  (+18.2% Dem swing)

Indian Wells, Riverside County - MHI $111k/Yr - Pop 4.9k

2012: Romney 73.2 - 25.8
2016: Trump  65.6 - 31.2  (+13.1% Dem swing)

Newport Beach, Orange County - MHI $109k/Yr - Pop 84.4k

2012: Romney 65.8 - 32.3
2016: Trump  54  - 39.9  (+19.4% Dem swing)

Agoura Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $108k/Yr - Pop 20.3k

2012: Obama 53.1 - 44.6
2016: Clinton  59.6 - 35.2  (+16% Dem swing)

Rancho Santa Margarita, Orange County - MHI $104k/Yr - Pop 47.7k

2012: Romney  60.9 - 37.1
2016: Trump  52.6 - 40.1  (+11.3% Dem swing)

Moorpark, Ventura County - MHI $103k/Yr - Pop 34.1k

2012: Romney  51.3 - 46.8
2016: Clinton  49.6 - 41.6  (+12.5% Dem swing)

Chino Hills, San Bernardino County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 74.7k

2012: Romney  51.9 - 46.3
2016: Clinton  49.8 - 45.4  (+10.1% Dem swing)

Hermosa Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $102k/Yr - Pop 19.4k

2012: Obama  55.6 - 40.8
2016: Clinton  64.2 - 27.6  (+21.7% Dem swing)

Walnut, Los Angeles County - MHI $101k/Yr - Pop 29.2k

2012: Obama  57.8 - 40.1
2016: Clinton  62 - 33.1  (+11.2% Dem swing)

Thousand Oaks, Ventura County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 125.6k

2012: Romney  51.7 - 46.1
2016: Clinton  50.8 - 41.3  (+15.1% Dem swing)

Laguna Niguel, Orange County - MHI $100k/Yr - Pop 62.8k

2012: Romney  57.8 - 40.5
2016: Trump  47.8 - 46.1  (+15.6% Dem swing)

You rock!!!!!

Figured one of our resident California experts would have some of the data at their fingertips....

I'll pull the Demographics here in a bit, since especially in Metro areas it helps potentially provide some additional context/understanding for shifts within different ethnic groups, particularly in the context of the '16 election, where certainly it appears that Asian-Americans in particular swung even heavier towards the Democratic Party than in the past few election cycles, not only in wealthy communities, but also in working and middle class communities as well, quite possibly as a result of some of rhetoric from the Republican Party Presidential candidate.....

So I'll try to update the list, now that we have an extremely large data dump from SoCal....

Still curious about how wealthy communities in Texas, Georgia, and Florida voted/swung, or for that matter anywhere in even the "Old South" as opposed to the "New South".... Still lacking data from the Midwest, my Atlas peeps.

Crowd-sourcing works!!!!

[King of Kensington]

How did Beverly Hills vote?