Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How did Beverly Hills vote?

Beverly Hills, Los Angeles County - MHI $85k/Yr - Pop 34k

2012: Obama  54.3 - 43.9
2016: Clinton  63.8 - 32.6 (+20.8% Dem swing)


Also, some more SoCal cities:

Mission Viejo, Orange County - MHI $96k/Yr - Pop 93k

2012: Romney  58.7 - 39.3
2016: Trump  49.7 - 43.7 (+13.4% Dem swing)

Redondo Beach, Los Angeles County - MHI $95k/Yr - Pop 66.3k

2012: Obama  56.9 - 40
2016: Clinton  62.2 - 30.5 (+14.8% Dem swing)

Poway, San Diego County - MHI $95k/Yr - Pop 47.7k

2012: Romney  59.6 - 38.4
2016: Trump  48.9 - 44.3 (+16.5% Dem swing)

Lake Forest, Orange County - MHI $94k/Yr - Pop 77.1k

2012: Romney  56.8 - 40.9
2016: Trump  46.8 - 46 (+15.1% Dem swing)

Coronado, San Diego County - MHI $94k/Yr - Pop 19.4k

2012: Romney  59.1 - 39
2016: Trump  48.1 - 45.9 (+17.9% Dem swing)

Irvine, Orange County - MHI $92k/Yr - Pop 205k

2012: Obama  53.7 - 43.8
2016: Clinton  61.3 - 32.1 (+19.3% Dem swing)

San Clemente, Orange County - MHI $89k/Yr - Pop 62k

2012: Romney  62.4 - 35.7
2016: Trump  53.8 - 39.4 (+12.3% Dem swing)

Carlsbad, San Diego County - MHI $85k/Yr - Pop 66.3k

2012: Romney  53.3 - 44.8
2016: Clinton  52.1 - 41.7 (+19% Dem swing)

Solana Beach, San Diego County - MHI $85k/Yr - Pop 12.8k

2012: Obama  51 - 47.1
2016: Clinton  59.9 - 34.6 (+21.4% Dem swing)

[Lothal1]

Potomac MD swung heavily towards Hillary.

[King of Kensington]

I take it Lake Forest CA is named after Lake Forest IL?

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- so now we are definitely seeing some pretty clear swings among wealthy voters in the three states of the Pacific Coast proper (California, Oregon, & Washington).

One could potentially make a reasonable argument that wealthy voters on the West Coast are heavily concentrated in a handful of extremely Liberal Metro Areas (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, LA/Orange, and San Diego) so potentially the 15-20% + Democratic swings are more representative of broader trends within the Metro Areas.

Within the West Coast, it appears that these swings transcend race/ethnicity, since this is observed in both wealthier places with large Asian-American Populations, as well as predominately Anglo populations.... haven't drilled down the numbers on Cali that Interlocuter provided yet, but am pretty sure some of these wealthier SoCal communities have a decent Latino population as well.

I took the liberty of pulling some numbers for the five wealthiest places in Metro Houston to see if there was a similar pattern that we have observed in the West Coast, and apparently in certain parts of New England as well (Data is still too limited on the Midwest) and we have absolutely no data from any of the former states of the old confederacy....

Metro Houston (Five Wealthiest--- all located within Harris County and Houston (?)

1.) Bunker Hill Village--- MHI >$250k+ / Yr- Pop 3.7k

(76% White, 13% Asian, 8% Latino)

2012: (17 D- 81 R)        +64 R
2016: (30 D- 63 R)        +33 R       (+31% Dem Swing)

2.) Hunters Creek Village--- MHI $242.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.5k

(83% White, 7% Asian, 5% Latino, 3% African-American)

2012: (19 D- 80 R)       +61 R
2016: (28 D- 65 R)       +37 R         (+24% Dem Swing)

3.) Piney Point Village--- MHI $229.3k/Yr---- Pop 3.2k

(82% White, 10% Asian, 6% Latino)

2012: (17 D- 82 R)      +65 R
2016: (27 D- 66 R)      +39 R       (+24% Dem Swing)

4.) West University Place---- MHI $205.1k/Yr--- Pop 15.0k

(83% White, 9% Asian, 5% Latino)

2012: (34 D- 64 R)     +30 R
2016: (50 D- 42 R)     +8 D        (+38% Dem swing)

5.) Hilshire Village---- MHI $ 181.2k/Yr--- Pop 717

(83% White, 10% Asian, 4% Latino)

2012: (23 D- 73 R)      +50 R
2016: (32 D- 60 R)      +28 R     (+22% Dem Swing)

So far, these numbers are actually relatively comparable to dramatic swings among wealthier voters that have been observed in the West Coast and New England, perhaps even slightly more so....

@ BaldEagle1991 and @ Indy Texas---- Either of y'all have the '12 and '16 numbers easily available at your fingertips for Tejas?

I can keep crunching parts of Metro Houston, and possibly elsewhere in the great Lone Star state, but figured it might save some duplication of labor if this is data either of you have already pulled in one form or another to save the combing through precinct maps, results, census block tract data, etc....

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- pulled some numbers for #6-15 wealthiest places in Metro Houston....

I will skip Fort Bend County for the moment, since there's a bit of extra work involved shifting between county precinct maps, census tract info for "defined" places, and crunching county level election returns by precinct.....

Wealthiest places in Metro-Houston (#6-#15)

#6- Bellaire- (Harris County) - MHI $ 161.3k/Yr- Pop 17.2k

(73% White, 15% Asian, 9% Latino)

2012: (35 D- 62 R)      +27 % R
2016: (50 D- 43 R)      +7 D     (+34% Dem Swing)

#7- Spring Valley Village- (Harris County)- MHI $153.8k/Yr- Pop 3.9k

(85% White, 9% Asian, 4% Latino)

2012: (21 D- 77 R)      +56% R
2016: (29 D- 64 R)      +35% R     (+21% Dem Swing)

#8- Weston Lakes- (Fort Bend County)---- TBD

#9- Southside Place- (Harris County)--- MHI $ 145.8k/Yr-  Pop 1.7k

(73% White, 14% Asian, 10% Latino, 1% African-American)

2012: (37 D- 59 R)     +22% R
2016: (54 D- 40 R)     +14% D     (+36% Dem Swing)

#10- Fulshear- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#11- Greatwood- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#12- Cinco Ranch- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#13- Taylor Lake Village- (Harris County)- MHI $ 137.4k- Pop 3.6k

(87% White, 8% Latino, 3% Asian)

* Here is the first place in Harris County thus far where the census boundaries don't fully overlap with precinct boundaries, but it should still give us a reasonable idea about what's going on in the wealthiest part of SE Harris County (Around the Clear Lake Area)

2012: (26 D- 71 R)     +45% R
2016: (31 D- 62 R)     +31% R    (+14% Dem Swing)

#14- Sienna Plantation- (Fort Bend County)- TBD

#15- Tiki Island- (Galveston County) -TBD

So, at least thus far in the wealthiest parts of Harris County, we are so far seeing swings extremely similar to those that we have seen in the wealthiest parts of the cities of the West Coast...

The swings appear to be slightly lower in the heaviest Anglo communities, with the exception of the area around Rice Village (West University Place)...

It is worthy to note that the largest wealthy communities by population, not only swung hardest towards Clinton, but also actually flipped (Look at West University Place and Bellaire)....

This should obviously be a major concern for Harris County Republicans, and viewed as a major opportunity for Democrats in Harris County, since wealthy voters are not entirely concentrated in a handful of precincts, but quite likely these types of swings reflect patterns throughout the most Republican parts of the City of Houston proper, and possibly to a slightly lesser extent swings in unincorporated areas within the County....

Any of our resident Texas experts want to jump in on these results thus far?

[Indy Texas]

#1, 3, 5, 7. The Villages, as we call them, are a handful of very tiny independent cities surrounded by the City of Houston - Bunker Hill Village, Hilshire Village, Hunters Creek Village, Piney Point Village, Spring Valley Village. They incorporated as separate entities in the mid-20th century to avoid city annexation (I'll let you fill in the blanks as to what political issues of the 1950s and 1960s might have incited them to do that.) They are, along with the Memorial area of Houston, sometimes referred to as the Memorial Villages.

This is the epicenter of Country Club Republicanism in Harris County (analogous to Dallas' Park Cities). The area is mostly in the 7th congressional district, once represented by George H. W. Bush, and currently represented by John Abney Culberson, whose politically established family has a county named after them.

It's not a big shock that these areas swung significantly to Hillary. However, many of the people who live here are relatively socially conservative (lots of Baptists and traditionalist Episcopalians) and either work in the energy industry or inherited money that was made in the energy industry. So that, combined with the general failure of Hillary to do quite as well with upscale whites as she wanted/needed, might explain why this swing wasn't bigger.

#4. West University Place is, as its name suggests, in southwest Houston near Rice University and the Texas Medical Center. While the Villages tend to mostly be older money made in energy and banking, West University Place is increasingly attracting the white collar, well-credentialed "knowledge economy" workers who are increasingly being monopolized by the Democrats. This is the habitat of doctors, surgeons, consultants, software professionals, and professors.

This neighborhood is well-personified by its state representative, Sarah Davis. A pro-choice pro-gay marriage Republican who often votes with the Democrats, Davis is a corporate lawyer in her 30s who has dogs instead of children.

[NOVA Green]

#1, 3, 5, 7. The Villages, as we call them, are a handful of very tiny independent cities surrounded by the City of Houston - Bunker Hill Village, Hilshire Village, Hunters Creek Village, Piney Point Village, Spring Valley Village. They incorporated as separate entities in the mid-20th century to avoid city annexation (I'll let you fill in the blanks as to what political issues of the 1950s and 1960s might have incited them to do that.) They are, along with the Memorial area of Houston, sometimes referred to as the Memorial Villages.

This is the epicenter of Country Club Republicanism in Harris County (analogous to Dallas' Park Cities). The area is mostly in the 7th congressional district, once represented by George H. W. Bush, and currently represented by John Abney Culberson, whose politically established family has a county named after them.

It's not a big shock that these areas swung significantly to Hillary. However, many of the people who live here are relatively socially conservative (lots of Baptists and traditionalist Episcopalians) and either work in the energy industry or inherited money that was made in the energy industry. So that, combined with the general failure of Hillary to do quite as well with upscale whites as she wanted/needed, might explain why this swing wasn't bigger.

#4. West University Place is, as its name suggests, in southwest Houston near Rice University and the Texas Medical Center. While the Villages tend to mostly be older money made in energy and banking, West University Place is increasingly attracting the white collar, well-credentialed "knowledge economy" workers who are increasingly being monopolized by the Democrats. This is the habitat of doctors, surgeons, consultants, software professionals, and professors.

This neighborhood is well-personified by its state representative, Sarah Davis. A pro-choice pro-gay marriage Republican who often votes with the Democrats, Davis is a corporate lawyer in her 30s who has dogs instead of children.

Thanks Indy Texas for explanations as to the swings the "Villages" and also in West University Place/Bellaire.

Basically this covers the wealthiest "places" within Harris County, excepting several parts of the City of Houston, which I will try to see if I can overlap precinct boundaries with census tracts....

#17 Wealthiest in Metro-Houston-The Woodlands (Montgomery County)- MHI $106.3k/Yr- Pop 101.4k

(76% White, 14% Latino, 5% Asian, 2% African-American)

Occupations: 20.3% Management, 15.0% Sales, 10.4% Admin, 8.5% Business, 7.5% Education, 5.2% Health Care, 4.3% Engineering.

Industries: Professional 11.3%, Health Care 10.8%, Manufacturing 10.2%, Education 9.9%, Retail 9.7%, Oil, Gas, & Mining 7%

2012: (22.1% D- 76.2% R)    +54.1% R
2016: (30.4% D- 63.3% R)    +32.9% R    (+21.2% Dem Swing)

This is obviously a pretty big deal, since if you look at the Woodlands precincts in Montgomery County between '12 and '16 it went from a +24.2k Republican total vote margin in '12 to only a +15.5k Republican total vote margin in '16.

Needless to say, if this trend continues in 2020, this would not be a good sign for Republican Party dominance in Texas at the Presidential level, since in theory the managers & engineers working at the new Exxon Campus, and other highly educated and skilled professionals in an Exurban setting have long been a monolithic basis for the Modern Texas Republican Party.

# 24- Oak Ridge North- (Montgomery County)- MHI $96.8k- Pop 3.1k

Right across from the I-45--- this appears to include some "rural" areas not part of the statistical census tract, but still we have an idea of what happened between '12 and '16.

(88% White, 7% Latino)

2012: (20.0 D- 78.2 R)     +58.2 R
2016: (22.6 D- 71.4 R)     +48.8 R    (+9.4% Dem Swing)


#18 Wealthiest in Metro- Sugar Land- MHI $ 104.7k/Yr- Pop 80.8k

(45% White, 35% Asian, 10% Latino, 8 % African-American)
(14% Indian-Americans, 10% Chinese-Americans, 3% Pakistani-Americans, 2% Vietnamese-Americans)

Occupations: 16% Management, 13% Sales, 13% Admin, 8% Business, 7% Education, 6% Health Care, 6% Engineering, 6% Computers & Math)

Relative Occupations: Highest variance with engineering, computers & Math, and Science

2012: (38.3 D- 61.1 R)    +22.8% R
2016: (46.9 D- 46.8 R)    +0.1% D       (+22.9% Dem Swing)

Not a good sign at all for Texas Republicans in 2020.... note that Sugar Land actually had a significantly lower margin for Clinton than Fort Bend County at large.....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

Thanks ExtremeRepublican!

So--- I ran some numbers on Brentwood from '12 to '16 to look at swings, but although "where exactly is Brentwood" appears to be a bit of an issue had to rely on 2016 precinct maps combined with statisticalatlas.com data and then try to match against 2012/2016 polling locations... but still we do have some data points to work with despite that....

Brentwood- TN---- (3rd wealthiest place in Metro Nashville)---  MHI $ 134.4k/Yr--- Pop 38.2k

(87% White, 5% Asian, 3% Black, 2-3% Latino)

Occupations: 22% Management, 15% Sales, 10% Business, 9% Health Care, 8% Admin.

Relative Occupations in order of labor force %: Science, Legal, Mgmt, Business, Entertainment, Health Care, Computers & Math.

2012: (25.2% D- 75.0% R)      +49.8% R
2016: (32.1% D- 60.2% R)      +28.1% R    (+21.7% Dem Swing)

So, interestingly enough the data that we are starting to see from even heavily Republican states appear to indicate a +20% Dem swing....

Do we have any data that any of our Atlasians can suggest pulling up in places like Georgia and Florida, wealthy parts of New England, wealthy suburbs of Ohio, Illinois and Michigan?

I sense a potential Masters Thesis brewing for one of our intrepid Atlasians willing to do additional legwork and research on this topic....

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

It would be interesting to look at some individual towns in DuPage and McHenry Counties in Illinois. Two new-money suburban counties. McHenry is extremely red but probably swung hard against Trump. DuPage is more of a swing county but also swung hard left.

I'd especially look at Oak Brook and Barrington. Oak Brook voted 80-85% McCain, and Barrington also voted overwhelmingly for him. Trump probably fared far worse.

Maybe I'll get some time this week and try to pull those numbers together, but no guarantees.

[NOVA Green]

It would be interesting to look at some individual towns in DuPage and McHenry Counties in Illinois. Two new-money suburban counties. McHenry is extremely red but probably swung hard against Trump. DuPage is more of a swing county but also swung hard left.

I'd especially look at Oak Brook and Barrington. Oak Brook voted 80-85% McCain, and Barrington also voted overwhelmingly for him. Trump probably fared far worse.

Maybe I'll get some time this week and try to pull those numbers together, but no guarantees.

So.... five wealthiest places in DuPage....

1.)  Wayne---       MHI $171.4k/Yr
2.)  Hinsdale--      MHI $161.7k/Yr
3.)  Oak Brook--   MHI $135.9k/Yr
4.)  Burr Ridge--   MHI $115.3k/Yr
5.)  Naperville---  MHI $108.3k/Yr


McHenry:

1.) Trout Valley---       MHI $ 124.1k/Yr
2.) Lakewood----         MHI $ 123.9k/ Yr
3.) Barrington Hls---    MHI $119.6k/Yr
4.) Prairie Grove          MHI $ 113.8k/ Yr
5.) Algonquin---          MHI  $103.4k/Yr

Now it does appear that there are places in Lake and Cook County that would also fall into the "wealthy town/township category" to represent the great state of Illinois....

Looking forward to whatever numbers you might be able to pull....

[NOVA Green]

So, decided to dip my toes into Dallas-Fort Worth wealthy areas in Texas and pull a few precinct level numbers.

Tarrant County--- Texas.

Wealthiest places---

1.) Westlake- MHI- $233.8k/Yr- Pop 1.1k

(91% White, 5% Latino, 3% Asian)

This one's a bit weird bcs the precinct boundaries don't cleanly overlap, and there is also a sliver in Denton County, but should give us an idea....

2012: (8.9% D- 90.4% R)         +81.5% R
2016: (21.7% D- 74.3% R)       +52.6% R     (+29% D Swing)

2.) Westover Hills- MHI $205.8k/Yr- Pop 0.7k

(98.8% White)

2012: (14.1% D- 84.9% R)-       +70.8% R
2016: (17.9% D- 78.6% R)-       +60.7% R    (+10% D Swing)

3.) Southlake--- MHI $173.0k/Yr---- Pop 27.0k

(85% White, 6% Asian, 5% Latino, 2% Black)

2012: (21.7% D- 83.8% R)     +62.1% R
2016: (29.7% D- 65.4% R)     +35.7% R    (+26% D Swing)

4.) Colleyville--- MHI $153.0k/Yr--- Pop 23.5k

(79% White, 11% Asian, 8% Latino, 2% Black)

2012: (19.1% D- 75.3% R)      +56.2% R
2016: (29.2% D- 70.0% R)      +40.8% R     (+15% D Swing)

5.) Trophy Club---- MHI $124.6k/Yr--- Pop 9.0k

Mostly located in Denton County.... Skip

6.) Flower Mound--- MHI $120.9k/Yr--- Pop 66.5 k

Mostly located in Denton County.... Skip

7.) Dalworthington Gardens---- MHI $ 116.0k/Yr---- Pop 2.0k

(91% White, 4% Asian, 2% Latino, 1% Black)

2012: (22.2% D- 74.8% R)         +52.6% R
2016: (26.3% D- 68.9% R)         +42.6% R    (+10% D Swing)

8.) Keller---- MHI $113.6k/Yr---  Pop 40.9k

(85% White, 6% Latino, 4% Asian, 2% Black)

2012: (21.2% D- 76.3% R)----     +55.1 R
2016: (25.0% D- 69.8% R)---      +44.8 R      (+10% Dem Swing)


I'll try to pull some additional numbers for elsewhere in DFW as time permits....

Southlake and Colleyville appear to stand out, not sure to what extent the larger Asian-American population is a factor, or it is more industries/occupational categories.... Some of our resident Texan experts might have some insights on that one....

Needless to say Tarrant with 670k votes is an obvious potential swing county, if the Dems have any hope of winning a Statewide election in Texas....

2012: (41.4% D- 57.1% R)    + 15.7% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.7% R)    +8.6% R       (+7% Dem Swing)

The reality that Trump was barely able to clear 50% in '16, should be a giant warning sign for all Texas Republicans, and cause a dramatic amount of anxiety and quivering in their boots, when they take their wife out dancing doing the classic Texas Two-Step....

[NOVA Green]

Collins County Texas---  MHI $ 82.8k/Yr--- Pop 811.3k

(62.3% White, 14.6% Latino, 11.6% Asian, 8.6% Black)

2012:  (33.4% D- 64.9% R)     +31.5% R
2016:  (38.9% D- 55.6% R)     +16.7% R    (+14.8% D Swing)

Top Five wealthiest places in Collins County:

1.) Parker---- MHI $125.7k---- Pop 3.9k

(69% White, 13% Asian, 11% Latino, 6% Black)

2012: (21.1% D- 77.8% R)     +56.7% R
2016: (28.0% D- 66.1% R)     +38.1% R       (+18.6% Dem Swing)

2.) Prosper---  MHI $118.3k--- Pop 11.0k

(80.2% White, 9.0% Latino, 6.8% Black, 3.3% Asian)

2012: (20.7% D- 78.2% R)      +57.5% R
2016: (20.5% D- 74.5% R)      +54.0% R    (+3.5% Dem Swing)

* Note Prosper has a Denton/Collins split, and this is only election results for the Collins County part of the statistical place.

Also, it appears that there were some precinct changes between '12 and '16, and not having access to the '12 maps, there is a chance that there are some distortions in the numbers as a result.

Comments: This may be one of the few "wealthiest places" where the Democratic share of the vote decreased between '12 and '16 (Although there still appears to be a marginal Democratic swing).

3.) Lucas---- MHI $ 118.2k---- Pop 6.5k

(92.3% White, 3.9% Latino, 2.9% Asian)

2012: (18.1% D- 80.3% R)      +62.2% R
2016: (21.9% D- 70.9% R)      +49.0% R     (+13.2% Dem Swing)

Comments: The "Whitest" top five wealthy places in Collins, some increase in the Dem vote, but mainly a relative collapse in the Republican vote with 1/10 voters in the County not voting for Trump who supported Romney in 2012.

4.) Murphy---- MHI $ 118.2k/Yr--- Pop 18.4k

(54.9% White, 26.1% Asian, 11.2% Black, 6.0% Latino)

2012: (36.1% D- 62.3% R)    +26.2% R
2016: (42.8% D- 50.9% R)    +8.1% R      (+18.1% Dem Swing)

Notes: It appears that there was a precinct added between '12 and '16. See notes for Prosper above.

Comments: The most ethnically diverse of the five wealthiest places in Collins County, with an extremely high percentage of Asian-Americans (10% of the total population is Vietnamese-Americans, 8% Indian-Americans, and 4% Pakistani-Americans). Again, this reinforces the trend that we have seen elsewhere in areas with large Vietnamese-American populations in particular.

5.) Frisco---- MHI $108.3k/Yr--- Pop 123.7k

(66.6% White- 12.4% Latino, 10.3% Asian, 7.1% Black)

2012: (32.9% D- 65.6% R)       +32.7% R
2016: (41.2% D- 52.7% R)       +11.5% R     (+21.2% Dem Swing)

Notes: There appears to have been a precinct added between '12 and '16. Frisco is split between Denton and Collins County, and these election results only include the Collins County segment.

Comments: One of the fastest growing cities in the United States between 2000 and 2017, if not the fastest growing city in some of those years.

The numbers for Frisco in particular, should be extremely worrying for Texas Republicans, considering that it is the 3rd largest city mostly contained within Collins County, and is Whiter and wealthier than Plano or McKinney....

There has been discussion on multiple other threads regarding the potential future of the Democratic Party at a Presidential level within Texas, shifting demographics etc, and where there might be significant changes, but it's pretty dang clear looking at Murphy and Frisco in Collins County, where 33.3% of the Population is <18 years old, that these types of dramatic electoral shifts could quickly move Collins County into a solid "purple" zone and even quite possibly a lean-Democratic mode by 2024, unless the national Republican Party readjusts their messaging and policy platforms and positions.

Any of y'all from Texas/Tejas, or those with more detailed knowledge of Texas politics and demographics than myself, want to chime in on Collins County? Seen some chatter over the past week on a few other threads about Metro DFW, and Denton/Tarrant/Collins, so here's an additional data-set to throw into the mix....

[NOVA Green]

Denton County---- Texas---- MHI $74.2k/Yr--- Pop 688k

(63.6% White, 18.1% Latino, 8.4% Black, 6.9% Asian)

2012: (33.3% Dem- 64.9% Rep)     +31.6% Rep
2016: (37.1% Dem- 57.1% Rep)     +20.0% Rep   (+11.6% Dem Swing)


Wealthiest places....

1.) Westlake---- Split precinct, data unavailable,.... MHI $233.8k, Pop 1.1k

2.) Southlake--- Mostly located in Tarrant county. small sliver of ~300 voters located in Denton.

Denton portions:

2012: (23.2% Dem-- 76.1% Rep)   +52.9% Rep
2016: (28.7% Dem-- 68.5% Rep)    +39.8% Rep    (+13.1% Dem Swing)

3.) Lantana----  MHI $ 137.3k---- Pop 7.8k

(75.5% White, 13.1% Latino, 3.8% Black, 2.9% Asian)

2012: (20.6% Dem- 78.5% Rep)      +57.9% Rep
2016: (25.2% Dem- 71.3% Rep)      +46.1% Rep     (+11.8% Dem Swing)

4.) Highland Village--- MHI $129.7k---  Pop 15.4k

(87.5% White, 5.5% Latino, 2.9% Asian, 2.0% Black)

2012: (23.6% Dem- 75.2% Rep)     +51.6% Rep
2016: (28.5% Dem- 67.2% Rep)     +38.7% Rep    (+12.9% Dem Swing)

5.) Double Oak--- MHI $125.2k--- Pop 2.9k

(88.4% White, 5.9% Latino, 1.6% Black, 1.2% Asian)

2012: (17.0% Dem- 81.4% Rep)      +64.4% Rep
2016: (21.2% Dem- 74.5% Rep)      +53.3% Rep     (+11.1% Dem Swing)

6.) Trophy Club--- MHI $ 124.6k/Yr----  Pop 9.0k

(86.3% White, 5.6% Latino, 3.1% Asian, 1.6% Black)

2012: (20.5% Dem-  78.3% Rep)     +57.8% Rep
2016: (25.2% Dem-  71.0% Rep)     +45.8% Rep    (+12.0% Dem Swing)

7.) Flower Mound--- MHI $120.9k---- Pop 66.5k

(78.4% White, 8.6% Latino, 7.6% Asian, 3.3% Black)

2012: (26.1% Dem- 72.3% Rep)     +46.2% Rep
2016: (32.9% Dem- 62.0% Rep)     +29.1% Rep     (+17.1% Dem Swing)

So overall, it looks like the wealthiest places in Denton swung even harder than the county writ large... obviously these numbers out of Flower Mound should be on the Republican radar, since it is one of the largest cities based solely within the county, and accounts alone for 10% of the total county votes.

Basically between 2012 and 2016 Republican Pres Margins went from +15k to +9k in Flower Mound alone.

Is this solely a one-off fluke, or will relatively White and Wealthy parts of Denton continue to trend Democratic in 2020 or beyond?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Williamson County- Texas----  MHI $71.8k/Yr-  Pop 441k

(63.1% White, 23.1% Latino, 6.3% Black, 5.1% Asian)

2012: (37.8% D- 59.2% R)       +21.4% R
2016: (41.6% D- 51.3% R)       +9.7% R     (+11.7 Dem Swing)

So now that we've spent some time in a few of the wealthiest places in Metro Houston and DFW, I thought it might be interesting to move down into Central Texas, to see what's going on in a fast growing County North of Austin, with a significant tech sector....

Obviously if the Dems can come close to flipping Williamson, this could well represent major problems for the Republican Party going forward, in an overwhelmingly urban/suburban state, despite the entrenched Republican advantage in most of rural and small town Texas....

Wealthiest Places in Williamson County---

1.) Brushy Creek---  MHI $98.5k/Yr---- Pop 23.9k

(67.0% White, 13.0% Latino, 11.0% Asian, 5.8% Black)

2012: (40.4% D- 56.3% R)        +15.9% R
2016: (46.4% D- 44.1% R)        +2.5% D      (+18.4% Dem Swing)

If we look at the wealthiest precinct, with an MHI of ~$110k/Yr and is 20% Asian-American, we see it shift from 2012: (56-41 R) to (43-47 D) in 2016....

If we go the precinct with the highest percentage of Whites (81%) and an MHI of "only" $98k/Yr it was in 2012: (61-36 R) and went (48-43 R) in '16.

So the swings appear to be similar here, even looking at relative income and ethnicity....

2.) Serenda--- MHI $93.7k/Yr-   Pop 1.2k

(93.0% White, 7.0% Latino)

It's a split precinct, where the majority of voters are in a neighboring precinct. I could pull the numbers for that precinct, but not sure how informative that data might be.

3.) Cedar Park---- MHI $77.4k/Yr---- Pop 54.9k

(68.4% White, 17.0% Latino, 6.8% Asian, 5.0% Black)

2012: (37.3% D- 59.2% R)        +21.9% R
2016: (43.2% D- 47.7% R)        +4.5% R      (+17.4% Dem Swing)

This is obviously a huge deal.... This is the second largest City located solely within Williamson County, and obviously significant swings here if they continue to trend Democratic are not good, when a Republican Pres candidate only bagged 48% of the vote....

So, if we look at the wealthiest precinct in the SW part of City, MHI $ 107k/Yr we see it go from 2012: (34-63 R) to in 2016: (41-50 R), approx 80% White...

We shift over to the next wealthiest precinct with an MHI of $106k/yr go from 2012: (37-61 R) to (47-45 D) that is only 68% White, 11% Asian and 15% Latino    (+26% Dem Swing)!

4.) Leander---- MHI $ 76.1k--- Pop 28.2k

(60.5% White, 30.2% Latino, 4.4% Black, 2.4% Asian)

2012: (34.6% D- 62.0% R)      +27.4% R
2016: (36.0% D- 55.3% R)      +19.3% R          (+8.1% Dem Swing)

This is a little trickier, since the wealthiest precinct, overlaps census tracts with one of the lower-income census tracts in the city, although even the lower income tract within the precinct is Whiter than the city at large....

2012: (33-63 R) and 2016: (35-56 R)....

5.) Pfugerville--- MHI $76.0k/Yr---- Pop 50.1k

Almost all of the City is located within Travis County, so skip the small portion in Williamson.

6.) Random Others---

Took a peak around the county, and one of the wealthiest places (precinct) is in NE Georgetown near a couple country clubs--- MHI $119.8k/Yr--- 84% White. VAP skews heavily older

2012: (23-75 R)--- 2016 (25-69 R)

One of the other wealthiest, is East of Round Rock around the Golf Club at Star Ranch:

MHI $115+k/Yr.... 71% White.

2012: (33 D- 64 R).... 2016: (40 D- 53R)

So make of this what y'all will....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

I just found some interesting data that shows a pretty stark divide between Brentwood and Belle Meade, even though they are usually thought of as very politically similar (i.e. ultra-rich and conservative).

2014 Amendment One (which said that abortion is never protected by the TN Constitution "including... when the pregnancy results from rape or incest or when abortion is necessary to save the life of the mother"):

Belle Meade (Davidson County precinct 23-4):
No: 65.4%
Yes: 34.6%

Brentwood (Williamson County precincts 6- 1-3, 7- 1-3):
Yes: 53.5%
No: 46.5%

I would include Franklin too, but its borders are harder to define, but it certainly seems like it went for Yes fairly convincingly, since it includes most of the rest of Williamson County, which went for Yes by more than Brentwood did.  However, the one No precinct in all of Williamson County was in Franklin.

Compare that to Amendment 3 (which made income tax unconstitutional in Tennessee):

Belle Meade:
Yes: 67.4%
No: 32.6%

Brentwood:
Yes: 76.2%
No: 23.8%


And, to show that this simply doesn't reflect that there are that many more Democrats in Belle Meade:

2016 President (2-party vote):

Belle Meade:
Trump: 62.0%
Clinton: 38.0%
(Johnson votes were 6.5% of Trump+Clinton total)

Brentwood:
Trump: 66.4%
Clinton: 33.6%
(Johnson votes were 4.3% of Trump+Clinton total)

So, while Brentwood is slightly more conservative overall than Belle Meade, it is significantly more socially conservative, with a majority even being willing to pass a constitutional amendment that will potentially ban abortion with no exceptions in Tennessee if Roe is overturned.  This likely also explains why Belle Meade trended far more away from Trump than Brentwood did in 2016, considering that it has somewhat of a socially liberal/moderate streak.

[Tekken_Guy]

In NJ here are some notable anti-Trump swinging towns:

-Allendale
-Alpine
-Bernards
-The Chathams
-Demarest
-Essex Fells
-Glen Ridge
-Haddonfield
-Harding
-Ho-Ho-Kus
-Livingston
-The Mendhams
-Millburn
-Montgomery
-New Providence
-North Caldwell
-Ridgewood
-Rumson and Fair Haven
-Summit
-Upper Saddle River
-West Windsor
-Woodcliff Lake

[Miles]

My parents' State Senate district in NC is SD 39, which has a lot of upper class neighborhoods in south Charlotte.

It went from McCain +11 to Romney +17 to Clinton +4.

[Adam Griffin]

Here are the top 10 wealthiest towns in GA according to some list I found on the internet (which I think isn't entirely accurate based on the gap between #8 and #9, but most look right) based on MHI:

Code:

CITY			        MHI	        2012 R	2012 D	2016 R	2016 D	SWING
Alpharetta, GA		$125K	64.8%	33.7%	50.8%	44.5%	D+24.8
Druid Hills, GA		$123K	30.9%	67.2%	17.8%	78.2%	D+24.1
Berkeley Lake, GA	$121K	55.8%	42.9%	44.4%	51.2%	D+19.7
Sandy Springs, GA	$120K	54.7%	43.9%	41.3%	54.0%	D+23.5
Roswell, GA                 $120K	63.8%	34.5%	51.8%	43.1%	D+20.6
Skidaway Island, GA	$113K	77.7%	21.9%	67.0%	31.0%	D+19.8
Milton, GA		        $112K	70.0%	28.6%	58.2%	37.2%	D+20.4
Johns Creek, GA		$111K	63.7%	34.9%	49.5%	46.3%	D+25.6
Peachtree City, GA	$91K          72.7%	25.7%	65.4%	30.2%	D+11.8
Dunwoody, GA		$80K	        59.3%	39.2%	45.0%	50.4%	D+25.5

[NOVA Green]

Here are the top 10 wealthiest towns in GA according to some list I found on the internet (which I think isn't entirely accurate based on the gap between #8 and #9, but most look right) based on MHI:

Code:

CITY			        MHI	        2012 R	2012 D	2016 R	2016 D	SWING
Alpharetta, GA		$125K	64.8%	33.7%	50.8%	44.5%	D+24.8
Druid Hills, GA		$123K	30.9%	67.2%	17.8%	78.2%	D+24.1
Berkeley Lake, GA	$121K	55.8%	42.9%	44.4%	51.2%	D+19.7
Sandy Springs, GA	$120K	54.7%	43.9%	41.3%	54.0%	D+23.5
Roswell, GA                 $120K	63.8%	34.5%	51.8%	43.1%	D+20.6
Skidaway Island, GA	$113K	77.7%	21.9%	67.0%	31.0%	D+19.8
Milton, GA		        $112K	70.0%	28.6%	58.2%	37.2%	D+20.4
Johns Creek, GA		$111K	63.7%	34.9%	49.5%	46.3%	D+25.6
Peachtree City, GA	$91K          72.7%	25.7%	65.4%	30.2%	D+11.8
Dunwoody, GA		$80K	        59.3%	39.2%	45.0%	50.4%	D+25.5

Awesome data dump from Professor/President Griff representing the Great State of Georgia....

Love how you include MHI in your data... granted wealth is relative depending upon what State/Metro area, etc from a comparative standpoint...

Hoping we get some more contributors to jump in especially from places like Florida, North Carolina, and sharing data about upper-income parts of the Midwest, where we are lacking some major data points....

[NOVA Green]

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.

I want to thank you for having the privilege of living in the great Volunteer State, where your SoS office actually posts precinct level returns for the entire state on their official website---- totally awesome, and I wish more states would learn from that leadership and ease of availability to this data.

County level precinct maps are a bit more hit and miss, since there is county-to-county variance in detailed maps, but for better or worse, larger concentrations of wealthy Americans are a bit more likely to be clustered in Metro areas and Shelby, Davidson, & Williamson Counties all have maps available on their respective websites....

So I pulled about some additional numbers for Tennessee to see what wealthy voters did in 2012 and 2016....

So to go back to Metro Nashville----

#1 Wealthiest-  Belle Meade (Davidson County- MHI $202.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.0k)

(98.3% White, 0.8% Latino)

2012: (22.0% D- 77.1% R)       +55.1% R
2016: (35.5% D- 58.0% R)       +22.5% R       (+33% Dem Swing)

#2 Wealthiest- Forest Hills (Davidson County- MHI $ 174.5k/Yr-  Pop 4.9k)

(93.6% White, 1.7% Latino, 1.4% Asian-American)

2012: (32.0% D- 67.0% R)     +35.0% R
2016: (43.1% D- 51.2% R)     +8.1% R           (+27% Dem Swing)

#3 Brentwood---- Covered Above in my preceding post

#4 Shackle Island (Sumner County)---- Not able to obtain bcs of precinct maps

#5 Oak Hill--- ( Davidson County---- MHI $110.7k/Yr--- Pop 4.6k)

(96.2% White, 1.7% Asian, 1.5% African-American)

2012: (34.7% D- 64.0% R)        +29.3% R
2016: (43.4% D- 50.7% R)        +7.3%  R       (+22% Dem Swing)

Wow--- so we have two of the five wealthiest places in Metro Nashville where Trump barely cleared 50% of the vote!!!!

So, here's a bonus number I pulled for Metro Memphis:

#1 Wealthiest- Germantown- (Shelby County- MHI $ 109.7k/Yr- Pop 39.1k)

(83.8% White, 6.7% Asian, 5.1% African-American, 3.6% Latino)

2012: (21.5% D- 77.5 % R)          +56.0% R
2016: (29.8% D- 69.2% R)           +39.4 % R      (+17% Dem Swing)

Also, a total aside, but anyone from Tennessee or our resident experts on Southern politics have an explanation as to why wealthy White voters in Nashville appear to be more receptive to Democratic Presidential candidates than those in Memphis?

I would also look at Franklin in Williamson County, which is bigger, but still very wealthy as well.  But, my guess on Nashville vs. Memphis is two-fold.  First, the music industry is obviously huge in Nashville, and, in small population places like Belle Meade and Forest Hills (what about Green Hills?), the music industry could have contributed to the large swing in Nashville (but would be less of a factor in rich areas of Williamson County, given the larger population).

Second, West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee are very different (and both are wholly different from East Tennessee).  People who think of Tennessee as an Appalachian state are really only thinking of East Tennessee (which includes Knoxville), which is actually ancestrally Republican and almost uniformly white.  Middle Tennessee is really its own entity, with whites being slightly more Republican than in Kentucky, but less than in Alabama and Mississippi (though it has some in common with South-Central Kentucky and North Alabama).  West Tennessee, on the other hand, is very much part of the Deep South and more resembles Mississippi than East Tennessee, politically, culturally, and geographically.  It is also majority-black or very close to it (Obama actually won West Tennessee in 2012, but I don't think Hillary quite carried it in 2016).  Apart from a few liberal whites (and actually a semi-significant Jewish population) in downtown Memphis, West Tennessee's white voters are much more like Mississippi's.  In fact, if West Tennessee whites voted like East Tennessee whites (East TN is probably 70% Republican, but 90%+ white), West Tennessee would be overwhelmingly Democratic because of Memphis.  In fact, in 2012, simply adding Memphis (the TN-9 section) to Mississippi would have made Mississippi a virtual tie.

Fun Fact: The precinct of the downtown precinct where Nashville's famous Lower Broadway is actually voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

I just found some interesting data that shows a pretty stark divide between Brentwood and Belle Meade, even though they are usually thought of as very politically similar (i.e. ultra-rich and conservative).

2014 Amendment One (which said that abortion is never protected by the TN Constitution "including... when the pregnancy results from rape or incest or when abortion is necessary to save the life of the mother"):

Belle Meade (Davidson County precinct 23-4):
No: 65.4%
Yes: 34.6%

Brentwood (Williamson County precincts 6- 1-3, 7- 1-3):
Yes: 53.5%
No: 46.5%

I would include Franklin too, but its borders are harder to define, but it certainly seems like it went for Yes fairly convincingly, since it includes most of the rest of Williamson County, which went for Yes by more than Brentwood did.  However, the one No precinct in all of Williamson County was in Franklin.

Compare that to Amendment 3 (which made income tax unconstitutional in Tennessee):

Belle Meade:
Yes: 67.4%
No: 32.6%

Brentwood:
Yes: 76.2%
No: 23.8%


And, to show that this simply doesn't reflect that there are that many more Democrats in Belle Meade:

2016 President (2-party vote):

Belle Meade:
Trump: 62.0%
Clinton: 38.0%
(Johnson votes were 6.5% of Trump+Clinton total)

Brentwood:
Trump: 66.4%
Clinton: 33.6%
(Johnson votes were 4.3% of Trump+Clinton total)

So, while Brentwood is slightly more conservative overall than Belle Meade, it is significantly more socially conservative, with a majority even being willing to pass a constitutional amendment that will potentially ban abortion with no exceptions in Tennessee if Roe is overturned.  This likely also explains why Belle Meade trended far more away from Trump than Brentwood did in 2016, considering that it has somewhat of a socially liberal/moderate streak.

That's quite an interesting take on what so far appears to be a significant swing towards the Democratic Nominee Nationally in '16 among relatively wealthy voters, since thus far we haven't necessarily seen a major difference in swings between *regions* of the country.

I wonder to what extent the pattern that you have observed in wealthier Metro precincts in a "Bible Belt" state like Tennessee might also apply to places all the way from Texas/Oklahoma up to North Carolina???

So are some of the variances in swings among "relatively wealthy voters" (High MHI cities and precincts) in much of the South ("Bible Belt") however we choose to define it, potentially explained as a result of areas where there are higher concentrations of Evangelical Christians vs more the "Country Club" Republican types....

Sounds like a Masters Degree research project to me .... but still more seriously I think you are the first to have identified a potential variance in upper-income Southern swings with a potential correlation with a more Evangelical (Southern Baptist?) bent than among other traditionally overwhelmingly Republican  wealthy demographics in Metro areas of the Southlands in the '16 General Election....

I think we need some more posters from the Southlands on here to examine this in more detail....

I could pull some Texas numbers on various elections for many counties, but unfortunately, they make it damn difficult for the Citizens to actually vote on Statewide Citizens Initiatives, so I don't believe it's possibly to pull numbers from abortion and taxation related initiatives, the same way that I used to be ably to easily do for Oregon....

Thanks Extreme Republican!    Looking forward to you picking up that shovel and digging some more, because it looks like you might be on to something that could well explain variances in '16 swings among this Demographic in parts of the Midwest as well.

[NOVA Green]

In NJ here are some notable anti-Trump swinging towns:

-Allendale
-Alpine
-Bernards
-The Chathams
-Demarest
-Essex Fells
-Glen Ridge
-Haddonfield
-Harding
-Ho-Ho-Kus
-Livingston
-The Mendhams
-Millburn
-Montgomery
-New Providence
-North Caldwell
-Ridgewood
-Rumson and Fair Haven
-Summit
-Upper Saddle River
-West Windsor
-Woodcliff Lake

Thanks!!!

We are lacking a bunch of data from the NorthEast,,,

Do you mind  doing a small favor (Pretty Please.... ) and post the Median Household Income Numbers from this site, shouldn't take you more than five minutes:

http://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview

Also, since apparently you have already run the swing numbers, that would be totally awesome as well....

Just makes it a bit easier to quicker compare and contrasts, and hell, you've already done much of the heavily lifting on your own time representing Joisey....

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Colorado---- MHI $101.6k/Yr

Wealthiest places:

1.) Castle Pines Village- Pop 4.0k--- MHI $206.3k/Yr

(Precinct 263+ part of 264) but only included pct 263

88.3% White, 4.8% Latino, 5.1% Asian

2012: (77 R- 22 D)       +55 R
2016: (62 R- 30 D)       +32 R    (+23% D Swing)

2.) Castle Pines- Pop 10.5k--- MHI $138.3k/Yr

(Precincts 258,260, 261, & 262)--- Also Part of Pct 259 (Not included)

89.6% White, 6.5% Latino, 0.9% Asian


2012: (67 R- 32 D)       +35 R
2016: (54 R- 36 D)       +18 R    (+17% D Swing)

3.) Perry Park--- Pop 1.5k--- MHI $119.7k/Yr

(Precinct 404, although possibly a small pop not part of the census tract)

92.5% White, 3.1% Latino, 2.4% Black, 1.8% Asian

2012: (69 R- 31 D)       +38 R
2016: (58 R- 33 D)       +25 R   (+13% D Swing)