Is Utah the most anti-Trump red state?

[R/H]

Is Utah the most anti-Trump red state?

[ClassiCoolidge]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

Except that he's becoming less popular.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

Except that he's becoming less popular.

-A couple weeks a trend does not make.

[ClassiCoolidge]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

Except that he's becoming less popular.

I mean, it's still pretty early.

[Virginiá]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

Except that he's becoming less popular.

-A couple weeks a trend does not make.

I wonder if by 'popular' we are going by favorables or approvals here. Trump's favorable average on RCP was consistently in the mid-high 30s during the entire election season, and it only went up some after he won. In that respect, it makes sense for it to go back down if it was just a honeymoon bounce. His approvals seem to be tracking this as well, which isn't that surprising. If someone doesn't like you, they are often less willing to give you the benefit of the doubt or give credit where credit is due.

The simple fact is that most people have always disliked Trump, and he seems to be reverting back to his original numbers - quickly at that.

But, in the end, you are right - a couple weeks does not really equal a trend, so we'll see where this goes over the next year.

[ClassiCoolidge]

Also, Utah would have looked a lot different if McMullin never ran. Trump would have done better there.

[RINO Tom]

Seeing as Utah might be the best representation left of traditional American conservatism - a respect for tradition, pro-business policies, a rejection of knee-jerk populism that demonizes the few, self reliance, moralism, etc. - I'd have to say yes.

[OneJ]

Also, Utah would have looked a lot different if McMullin never ran. Trump would have done better there.

Or much of what would've been McMullin's support could've gone to Gary Johnson (before McMullin, remember that he was polling pretty high and he should've targeted that state to get some influence).

[bagelman]

I don't see any counterexamples, so yes.

[Lord Admirale]

The only reason why Trump's victory in Utah was so narrow was because of McMullin's independent run. If McMullin didn't run, Trump would've won it by 60-70% like other Republican nominees.

[Vosem]

The only reason why Trump's victory in Utah was so narrow was because of McMullin's independent run. If McMullin didn't run, Trump would've won it by 60-70% like other Republican nominees.

Probably not the case; prior to McMullin entering the race, polling in Utah showed Gary Johnson with >20% of the vote. Trump might've done a couple points better, but it's difficult to see him eclipsing 50, and virtually impossible to see him eclipsing 55. Keep in mind that Trump was saved a little bit by how unpopular Bill Clinton was in Utah (he came in third here in 1992); polls during the primary season showed Sanders could conceivably have broken 40 here, and probably competed against Trump.

[OneJ]

The only reason why Trump's victory in Utah was so narrow was because of McMullin's independent run. If McMullin didn't run, Trump would've won it by 60-70% like other Republican nominees.

Probably not the case; prior to McMullin entering the race, polling in Utah showed Gary Johnson with >20% of the vote. Trump might've done a couple points better, but it's difficult to see him eclipsing 50, and virtually impossible to see him eclipsing 55. Keep in mind that Trump was saved a little bit by how unpopular Bill Clinton was in Utah (he came in third here in 1992); polls during the primary season showed Sanders could conceivably have broken 40 here, and probably competed against Trump.

Exactly.

[erſatz-york]

If Trump goes whole hog protectionist and it hurts the Texan economy, the LSS might take that title.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Without a doubt.

[MAINEiac4434]

If he becomes somewhat more popular I don't think it will anymore, but yes.

Except that he's becoming less popular.

I mean, it's still pretty early.

You're right. It should be his honeymoon. The fact that he's this low already means he's destined to go down much further.

[Xing]

If we're defining "red state" as a solidly Republican state, then yes.

[Chinggis]

You're right. It should be his honeymoon. The fact that he's this low already means he's destined to go down much further.

Who did you think would win the 2016 presidential election?

If you're like me and most other people, you thought Hillary Clinton. You knew Trump would lose. He was destined to lose bigly, take the worst GOP beating since Goldwater.

And there's no shame in that. We were all wrong, together. (If you predicted Trump would win, please tell me what to start investing in!! ) My point is that, after seeing first-hand what Trump has accomplished, against the odds and flying in the face of history and demographics and common sense...

why on Earth would you be so confident predicting his demise?

[LLR]

What about Kansas? Or Texas? I'd reckon his approval ratings in those two are, if not lower, at least similar to his in Utah

[BaldEagle1991]

If Trump goes whole hog protectionist and it hurts the Texan economy, the LSS might take that title.

That and if the Hispanics in Texas start voting like African Americans nationwide, which is slowly happening.

[Virginiá]

If Trump goes whole hog protectionist and it hurts the Texan economy, the LSS might take that title.

That and if the Hispanics in Texas start voting like African Americans nationwide, which is slowly happening.

If that is to happen, it could be a long time yet. Hispanic voting patterns differ state to state. In California, it was 71% - 24% Clinton, whereas in North Carolina it was 57% - 40% Clinton. Sure, there are the theories that the exit polls overstated Trump's support among Hispanics, which I think carry some water, but the point is still the same.

National margins for Democrats with Hispanics has been pretty steady as far back as we have polling. Their margin mostly oscillates between ~55% - 75%. However, I suppose it is possible for Trump to initiate a deeper shift away from Republicans, especially if the exit polls were off. Four years of behavior like this towards their communities will leave scars.

[Mr. Morden]

According to the exit polls on election day, if you ask where did Trump have the worst favorability among states that he won, it was a tie between Utah and Wisconsin.  In both states he was at -29% (34% favorable / 63% unfavorable in Utah and 35% favorable / 64% unfavorable in Wisconsin).  That’s significantly worse than any other state he won.  Next worst after that would be Iowa, Michigan, and Texas.  He was 20 points underwater in all of those.

He was actually only 14 points underwater on favorability in PA, even though the vote there was far closer than some of the other states listed above.