Quinnipiac - VA: Kaine up 20 on Ingraham / 21 on Fiorina

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What the conversation on suburbs is missing is that most of NoVa isn't suburban at all anymore.  DC can't really build out (or up, given the local building codes), so the urban core now extends well into Virginia (and the tallest buildings are all there).  Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

[Suburbia]

Trump's approval rating is 38-58 in the state too, which basically lines up with the Senate race. It's too bad we didn't get regional breakdowns, because it would be interesting to see if the Republicans are cratering in Nova even more than usual, or if they're starting to lose in Richmond suburbs and such. Probably both.

Yeah, probably both. The Philly suburbs might be a foreshadowing of things to come. If all of the suburbs start voting like urban areas at a national level, the Republican Party will go extinct.

The GOP can still win in the suburbs. Crime, taxes, schools could be a good message for suburban Republicans nationwide. Suburbs are Lean D, but anything can happen.

[heatcharger]

Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

Nah trust me, that's the problem. Just take a trip on Google Maps and you'll see that NoVA is nowhere near as dense as DC. Republicans used to at least dominate in neighborhoods with McMansions while keeping it respectable with the slightly more dense suburbs, but those days are long gone. I think what you're failing to understand is that NoVA suburbs are much more educated and diverse where everyone knows a fair amount of minorities in their lives. This is not analogous to other suburban areas that still vote Republican.

[Suburbia]

Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

Nah trust me, that's the problem. Just take a trip on Google Maps and you'll see that NoVA is nowhere near as dense as DC. Republicans used to at least dominate in neighborhoods with McMansions while keeping it respectable with the slightly more dense suburbs, but those days are long gone. I think what you're failing to understand is that NoVA suburbs are much more educated and diverse where everyone knows a fair amount of minorities in their lives. This is not analogous to other suburban areas that still vote Republican.

However, I think Gillespie could do very well in the NoVA suburbs, don't you think? He has that suburban appeal about him.

[Figueira]

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina might have made it close, but Former Hewlett-Packard CEO, failed Senate candidate, failed presidential candidate, and failed vice-presidential candidate Carly Fiorina will not.

[Maxwell]

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina might have made it close, but Former Hewlett-Packard CEO, failed Senate candidate, failed presidential candidate, and failed vice-presidential candidate Carly Fiorina will not.

not to mention carpetbagger

[Suburbia]

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina might have made it close, but Former Hewlett-Packard CEO, failed Senate candidate, failed presidential candidate, and failed vice-presidential candidate Carly Fiorina will not.

[peterthlee]

Given such polling, I move the seat to safe D (strong Dem hold).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What the conversation on suburbs is missing is that most of NoVa isn't suburban at all anymore.  DC can't really build out (or up, given the local building codes), so the urban core now extends well into Virginia (and the tallest buildings are all there).  Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

WTF are you talking about?  At most you could argue that Arlington and Alexandria are an extension of DC.  Are you really making a straight faced argument that Fairfax and further out counties are extensions of the "urban core?"

Remember that most of the City of Nashville is covered by houses with lawns and driveways, but the places I have been to in Northern Virginia have seemed quite urban (I've been as far as the Clarendon metro stop with regularity).

[Jeppe]

There are pockets of NoVa that are pretty dense, but overall, the area is pretty suburban in terms of housing and commuting.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What the conversation on suburbs is missing is that most of NoVa isn't suburban at all anymore.  DC can't really build out (or up, given the local building codes), so the urban core now extends well into Virginia (and the tallest buildings are all there).  Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

WTF are you talking about?  At most you could argue that Arlington and Alexandria are an extension of DC.  Are you really making a straight faced argument that Fairfax and further out counties are extensions of the "urban core?"

Remember that most of the City of Nashville is covered by houses with lawns and driveways, but the places I have been to in Northern Virginia have seemed quite urban (I've been as far as the Clarendon metro stop with regularity).

BTW - there are areas of DC that have lawns and driveways as well.

I'm well aware.  I have spent a significant period of time in DC.

[UWS]

I think it's a plus for Kaine to have been the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, which I think gave him more name recognition.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

What the conversation on suburbs is missing is that most of NoVa isn't suburban at all anymore.  DC can't really build out (or up, given the local building codes), so the urban core now extends well into Virginia (and the tallest buildings are all there).  Our problem isn't really suburbs shifting so much as it is urban areas taking over what used to be suburbs.

WTF are you talking about?  At most you could argue that Arlington and Alexandria are an extension of DC.  Are you really making a straight faced argument that Fairfax and further out counties are extensions of the "urban core?"

Remember that most of the City of Nashville is covered by houses with lawns and driveways, but the places I have been to in Northern Virginia have seemed quite urban (I've been as far as the Clarendon metro stop with regularity).

I didn't realize cities and metro areas were all alike...

They are when it helps a conservative.

[Miles]

Looks like they need a better candidate. How bout this guy?

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

E.W. Jackson would be a better candidate for republicans than Fiorina or Ingraham, but that's a terribly low bar.

[MAINEiac4434]

E.W. Jackson would be a better candidate for republicans than Fiorina or Ingraham, but that's a terribly low bar.

I would be a better candidate for the Democrats than Michael Moore or a rock

Seriously, is Kaine that entrenched? Are they waiting for Comstock?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

E.W. Jackson would be a better candidate for republicans than Fiorina or Ingraham, but that's a terribly low bar.

I would be a better candidate for the Democrats than Michael Moore or a rock

Seriously, is Kaine that entrenched?

Unless Comstock, Obenshain, or Taylor goes for it, yes.

[NeverAgain]

Comstock van either choose to lose embarrasingly in 2 years, either in her own district or statewide. I look forward to seeing her destruction either way.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Comstock van either choose to lose embarrasingly in 2 years, either in her own district or statewide. I look forward to seeing her destruction either way.

If Comstock runs for reelection and loses, it will be by a very small margin. She's not getting Landrieud or Pryored.

[Blackacre]

Comstock van either choose to lose embarrasingly in 2 years, either in her own district or statewide. I look forward to seeing her destruction either way.

If Comstock runs for reelection and loses, it will be by a very small margin. She's not getting Landrieud or Pryored.

You mean Blanched.

An officeholder narrowly losing re-election due to a state or district's partisan lean should be called getting Ayotted