Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke?

[Young Conservative]

Castro might get 60% of the hispanic vote in Texas- max. Gregg Abott won hispanic males in 2014. Let's dispel with this fiction that Texas trends were long term and not just because Trump was a horrible fit.

[SCNCmod]

Castro might get 60% of the hispanic vote in Texas- max. Gregg Abott won hispanic males in 2014. Let's dispel with this fiction that Texas trends were long term and not just because Trump was a horrible fit.

Until I see it- no one will convince me that Castro (one of the best known Mexican American politicians & the 1st with a real chance at leading statewide race...Senator/Governor ) would only get 60% of the Latino vote vs Cruz. 

Similar to many Dem Latinos vote for Rubio in Florida... many Rep Latinos will vote for Castro in Texas.

[SCNCmod]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

I think Dems Absolutely have the edge by 2028 (probably 2024).  Until then it will take a perfect match-up in off year elections (Castro v. Cruz is one of those matchups IMO).

Consider the 2016 Presidential election compared to Senate 2018.  Hillary lost by 9% to Trump (and Hillary got around 65% on minority vote).  As of election day...Cruz is no more popular in Texas than Trump (among general election voters)... maybe less.  Whereas Castro will be much more popular than Hillary in Texas.   So if Castro notches that 65% up to 75% among minorities (which make up 45% of voters)... and picks on some independents who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Hillary... That 9% completely disappears.  (not to mention it is likely Latinos & women march will be motivated to turnout for Castro... whereas many republicans may not be as motivated for Cruz (seeing as the last Texas midterm election on had 28.5% turnout).

[smoltchanov]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

By THAT time - quite likely. But, surely, not in 2018

[SCNCmod]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

By THAT time - quite likely. But, surely, not in 2018

I think Castro (specifically) against Cruz has a chance of winning the '18 Senate race based on a lot of specifics... But I definitely think that race would be the exception to the Rule.  IMO, the larger trend of Dems winning Texas will not start to happen until 2024.

[Indy Texas]

Curious to know how popular Cruz still is with the wealthy educated urbanite crowd in Dallas and Houston. They voted against Trump but is he the exception or the rule going forward.


I feel like with all his pro-Trump/anti-Trump flip-flopping he's managed to piss everybody off at somebody point in the last year.

Cruz's base is in the Houston suburbs and in the DFW exurbs. He did not do well in the main DFW suburbs in the 2012 primary (part of that was Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert being in the race).

They will vote for him in the GE, but probably not in a contested primary.