NJ-11 2018: Can Rodney Frelinghuysen be defeated in 2018?

[Suburbia]

Can longtime N.J. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Morris), who comes from NJ GOP royalty, and one of the wealthiest House members, lose reelection in 2018? His district, usually a GOP stronghold (it's Chris Christie's Morris County base) only voted for Trump 49-48, due to some wealthy Republicans voting for Hillary in 2016. Frelinhuysen has been hiding from his constituents lately.

http://observer.com/2017/02/rodney-frelinghuysen-has-quietly-become-njs-most-powerful-congressman/

http://www.newjerseyhills.com/bernardsville_news/opinion/columns/commentary-time-for-frelinghuysen-to-meet-with-his-constituents/article_620379f2-5731-5633-af08-026d7d07d71e.html

http://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/17/wheres-rodney-chants-persist-outside-congressmans-morristown-office-frelinghuysen/98046936/

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/02/rep_frelinghuysen_its_time_to_stop_hiding_editoria.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey%27s_11th_congressional_district

[houseonaboat]

I'll just say that Frelinghuysen really wishes he had earmarks again...

Redistricting in 2011 helped most Republicans but hurt Frelinghuysen a little bit, since he picked up a few Democratic strongholds in Essex County (Montclair, West Orange and Bloomfield) and lost some Morris County municipalities. Plus the parts of Morris County he does represent, while not trending Democratic in any meaningful way, are diverse and very wealthy, and Trump is a political albatross here whom most Republicans have run away from.

With that said the Frelinghuysen name is almost untouchable in New Jersey, he's very well-liked by his independent and Republican constituents, and, most importantly, he's the most powerful representative in New Jersey's congressional delegation, and as chair of House Appropriations. If the Democrats run an actual challenger against him (Kal Penn's name has come up a few times) then yeah, he's in trouble. But the thin Democratic bench in Morris County plus Frelinghuysen's own strong base and influence make him a tough out.

Likely R.

[Maxwell]

rofl lmao nah bruh

[KingSweden]

I doubt it. His family has been prominent in this state since quite literally the Washington Presidency

[LabourJersey]

The only notable Democrat I could find that lives in the district is former Gov. Dick Codey, who I doubt would run considering how comfortable he is with state politics, but who knows.

Granted I think if the Democrats got Codey into the race, it would be quite fun to watch, though Frelinghuysen has a ton of $$$ and would still be favored.

[Suburbia]

The only notable Democrat I could find that lives in the district is former Gov. Dick Codey, who I doubt would run considering how comfortable he is with state politics, but who knows.

Granted I think if the Democrats got Codey into the race, it would be quite fun to watch, though Frelinghuysen has a ton of $$$ and would still be favored.

Codey would beat Frelinghuysen by 2-5 points. It would be the upset of the year in 2018. Codey could appeal to the Morris County suburbanites, some of his district in the N.J. legislature is in Morris County.

[LabourJersey]

The only notable Democrat I could find that lives in the district is former Gov. Dick Codey, who I doubt would run considering how comfortable he is with state politics, but who knows.

Granted I think if the Democrats got Codey into the race, it would be quite fun to watch, though Frelinghuysen has a ton of $$$ and would still be favored.

Codey would beat Frelinghuysen by 2-5 points. It would be the upset of the year in 2018. Codey could appeal to the Morris County suburbanites, some of his district in the N.J. legislature is in Morris County.

You can't predict the margins of a race like this now. Codey is the most popular governor of the last 20 years, but that's an incredibly low bar. Since he's never won an election larger than his state senate district, I have no idea how he would perform in a House race.

[Cynthia]

House Appropriations committee chairman doesn't typically get defeated.

[Indy Texas]

I doubt it. His family has been prominent in this state since quite literally the Washington Presidency

I thought that was the sort of thing people were supposed to hate in the Trump Era.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I could in fact see Codey beating Frelinghuysen in some circumstances, but Codey is not going to run and would still be running uphill if he did.

[houseonaboat]

Assuming Murphy wins the primary and the general (both of which are more than likely at this point), Codey is going to get a huge promotion in terms of status in the New Jersey Statehouse as the gatekeeper between Murphy's camp and state legislators, so it's unlikely that he'll give that up for a long shot bid in a R district. I've heard from well-connected people that some Democrats are trying to recruit Kal Penn though I don't know if that'll come to anything.

[Cynthia]

I doubt it. His family has been prominent in this state since quite literally the Washington Presidency

I thought that was the sort of thing people were supposed to hate in the Trump Era.

Not in NJ.

[Moreliketommy]

Honestly he should be safe and if he were to lose, there would be a lot of guys to go before he falls.

[Tekken_Guy]

He could if Trump is really unpopular.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

This is my home district, and it's usually very Republican (at least the Morris County portion that anchors it) but as mentioned upthread it just barely stuck by Trump so if things keep going south and 2018 becomes a rout for Democrats I could potentially see this district being one of those almost accidental pickups that get swept up in the wave. Frelinghuysen has been my rep since before I've been alive and has never faced any stiff opposition (Michael Moore tried to run a ficus tree against him once), so I could see him getting complacent and getting caught flatfooted by the national environment, but again he'll have plenty of money at his disposal and this probably depends on Dems finding a decent challenger as well, a la Codey or Assemblyman John Mckeon (or maybe a councilperson from Morristown/Morris Twp or Parsippany?)

[Figueira]

If people are angry enough at the Republicans, they could take it out on even the most entrenched incumbents.

[Smash255]

If Trump's approvals are below 30% which would create a 2006 or greater type of Dem wave it is certainly possible.  Other than that, the Dems only realistic chance is if Cody jumps in and that seems unlikely.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

After the KS-4 election, few seats look safe. But unless Frelinghuysen retires, there are far better targets than this seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Essex County portion of the district is the key to a Democratic victory here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Definitely not.