Is Iowa a lost cause for democrats?
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  Is Iowa a lost cause for democrats?
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Author Topic: Is Iowa a lost cause for democrats?  (Read 1328 times)
Da2017
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« on: February 18, 2017, 03:21:25 PM »

West Virginia used to be a Democratic stronghold. Is Iowa going the way of West Virginia?
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cvparty
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2017, 04:09:55 PM »

not completely
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Eharding
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2017, 04:14:50 PM »

I think it's as competitive as Virginia.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2017, 04:50:25 PM »

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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2017, 04:50:53 PM »

West Virginia used to be a Democratic stronghold. Is Iowa going the way of West Virginia?

No. Iowa was never as Democratic as West Virginia (Dukakis in 1988 was the best performance of a Democrat except in the 1932 and 1964 landslides) and isn't as Republican as WV is now. Trump did well because of farming and manufacturing issues-the same issues that keep the state Democratic from Dukakis until Obama.

The Democratic-UMWA collapse in WV is very unique in circumstances and was probably the last state political machine that collapsed and can't be compared with anything that exists now.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2017, 08:24:27 PM »

 No it's not against trump. He can be beaten there and in a lot of states he won like Ohio. I'm not saying it would be easy, but he is not some titanium lock.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2017, 08:42:02 PM »

Not yet.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2017, 12:23:11 AM »

Not a lost cause per say. The Right Democrat could win Iowa however seeing trumps 10 point win in Iowa probably shows its losing its swing state status.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2017, 12:14:41 PM »

Trump is quite unpopular in Iowa now per the latest poll.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2017, 12:20:14 PM »

Trump is quite unpopular in Iowa now per the latest poll.

But he was also unpopular there on election day, but still won it handily.  The exit poll on election day had him underwater on favorability in plenty of states that he won easily, like IN, MO, and SC.  He still won them.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2017, 02:13:50 PM »

depends.

the republicans are atm as volatile as the dems.

but i think there are bigger prices which could be secured with less political stretching.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2017, 02:30:43 PM »

I hope so. It's a terrible state. The next Democratic president should eliminate corn subsidies entirely (and with them, Iowa's economy).
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President Underwood
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2017, 02:38:19 PM »

Trump won the state by around 10 points, while Hillary won the popular vote by 2 points or so. This makes Iowa around 12 points GOP leaning in relation to the rest of the nation, which is further red (err, blue) than Texas.

However, Trump did have a lot of appeal in the state, while Hillary had very little, so other Dems could have a better time. However, I don't really see a feasible way to make up the 12 points, at least outside a landslide.

I think it's fair to say Iowa is largely lost for the Dems
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Green Line
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2017, 02:38:26 PM »

I hope so. It's a terrible state. The next Democratic president should eliminate corn subsidies entirely (and with them, Iowa's economy).

The better question is, how do we punish Michigan and Wisconsin?  Their disloyalty was much more disturbing.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2017, 02:57:27 PM »

Iowa is an idiosyncratic state in many ways.  It was one of McGovern's better states and one of Mondale's best.  On the other hand, it went backward for the Democrats, going for Ford over Carter.  It was at the national average or just a wee bit ahead for the Democrats in the last 4 elections in a row, so the shift to Trump is kind of amazing.  To go from the national average for the Democrats plus 1 to a 12 points ahead of the nation GOP popular vote is remarkable, and it begs some questions.

Iowa and New Hampshire are somewhat comparable (each went Republican once for Bush 43).  Both are somewhat conservative, but also somewhat dovish and anti-war.  If you told me in 1972 that NH would be more Democratic than IA, I'd have been a cynic, but there are some clear factors that show why IA has diverged from NH:

1.  Religion:  Iowa has a more significant Evangelical community than NH, and this is not offset by conservative Catholics in NH.  NH's secular Republicans have been turned off by the rise of Evangelicals in the GOP, whereas IA's have not been.

2.  Rurality:  Iowa is a farming state, whereas NH has become more of a suburb of Boston than it ever was before.  NH has small towns, but not the extensive farming IA has.

3.  Presence of elected Democrats:  Over the years, IA's Democratic Party has proven inept.  It's lost its majority in its House delegation long ago, it nominated the incompetent Bruce Braley who got blown out by Joni Ernst, the Governorship is back in GOP hands, and the legislature is Republican.  NH, on the other hand, now elects two (2) Senators, two Representatives, and, while it lost the Governorship in 2016, it's the Democrats with the stronger stable of candidates.  Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Kelly Ayotte (R) in the 2016 Senate race, no easy feat.  It is impossible to imagine any of Iowa's current Democrats oust a GOP incumbent of Ayotte's stature in Iowa anytime soon.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2017, 04:50:21 PM »

Of course not, and Dems chances for a House majority lies right there in Iowa in 2018.
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Ridge
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« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2017, 06:05:49 PM »

Yes, it's not even worth visiting for them anymore. Hillary Clinton lost by double digits. That's alot, especially for a state that went for Fmr. President Obama twice.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2017, 07:17:20 PM »

Trump is quite unpopular in Iowa now per the latest poll.

But he was also unpopular there on election day, but still won it handily.  The exit poll on election day had him underwater on favorability in plenty of states that he won easily, like IN, MO, and SC.  He still won them.


The next Demodratic candidate is unlikely to be as unpopular as Clinton.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2017, 07:32:34 PM »

Based upon a Selzer poll of Iowa for approval/disapproval for Donald Trump (42% approval in Iowa when Gallup had a national approval of 40%), I would guess that Iowa is now about R+2. That's about where I see Ohio.

I'm guessing that Joni Ernst goes down in 2020.

If Democrats can start talking about rural issues again, then they can win Iowa back... and make serious inroads into the Dakotas, and maybe Kansas and Nebraska as well.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2017, 07:34:53 PM »

Jason Kander or Amy Klobuchar are working class Dems, as Veeps with Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro or John Hickenlooper, they will win Ohio and Iowa.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2017, 09:13:45 PM »

Trump is quite unpopular in Iowa now per the latest poll.

But he was also unpopular there on election day, but still won it handily.  The exit poll on election day had him underwater on favorability in plenty of states that he won easily, like IN, MO, and SC.  He still won them.


The next Demodratic candidate is unlikely to be as unpopular as Clinton.

Sure, fine, but BRTD said that Trump is unpopular *now* in Iowa, as if this is some new development.  No, Trump was unpopular on election day (both in Iowa and nationally) and he's unpopular now.  I haven't seen anything to suggest that he's any less popular now either in Iowa or nationally than he was on election day.

Or, to put it another way, if Trump maintains his current unfavorability until election day 2020, and he's running against someone with ~even favorability #s, then sure, he's in trouble in Iowa.  But he's also in trouble in so many other states that he's losing badly nationally, and it doesn't really matter what happens at the state-by-state level.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2017, 11:27:05 PM »

I hope so. It's a terrible state. The next Democratic president should eliminate corn subsidies entirely (and with them, Iowa's economy).

The better question is, how do we punish Michigan and Wisconsin?  Their disloyalty was much more disturbing.

Living there is punishment enough.

LOL that's rich from a NOVAer.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2017, 09:36:50 AM »

"I won Iowa not because of the demographics of that state, but because I was at every county fair and every fish fry. So because of that, I lost rural areas by 20 points instead of 50 points, and that all adds up."

-Barack Obama
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heatcharger
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2017, 09:42:57 AM »

"I won Iowa not because of the demographics of that state, but because I was at every county fair and every fish fry. So because of that, I lost rural areas by 20 points instead of 50 points, and that all adds up."

-Barack Obama

Obama's success in Iowa and the Rural Midwest was not gonna be replicated by Hillary even if she went to every fair and event. That's the sad truth.
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Medal506
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« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2017, 06:22:32 PM »

Yes I would say both Iowa and Ohio are now Republican states however Arizona and Georgia could be very competitive in 2020
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