2020 Senate elections

[publicunofficial]

Super super preliminary ratings with no possible knowledge of national environment, the strength/weakness of either 2020 Presidential campaign, or what issues voters in 2020 will be caring about:

Possible retirements: Cochran, Roberts, Markey, Risch, Durbin, Collins, Reed, Booker, Alexander


Safe D: New Jersey, Oregon, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware
Likely D: Minnesota, New Hampshire
Lean D: Virginia, Michigan
Toss-Up: Colorado, North Carolina
Lean R: Montana, Iowa
Likely R: Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Maine
Safe R: Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming

[publicunofficial]

Ha! I feel like if there is an upset though, it will be in MN or MI. One could move those to Lean D as well, but I think Franken and Peters are well-positioned to win reelection (Franken more so than Peters, however), unless Trump wins their states by a decent margin and Republicans make a serious effort there. I don't see Warner and Shaheen losing in any scenario (even if Trump wins their states). I was thinking about moving IL to Likely D and TX to Likely R, but I don't see it, honestly. I think Lean D in CO is actually being pretty generous to Gardner.

If Klobuchar sails effortlessly through 2018, Franken is probably safe for 2020. Likewise if Cruz easily wins re-election, Cornyn probably will as well.

I debated McConnell being Likely R. His approvals will be as low as they've ever been, and possibly even lower if Trump absolutely tanks the Republican brand. But right now it's not clear if Dems have any ability to win in Kentucky at all.

Do we have any idea who will run against Gardner?