Bernie Runs as an Independent

[Lord Admirale]

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[uti2]

What would be the likelihood of Senator Bernie Sanders, after losing the Democratic primaries, running as an independent? How would the election go with his independent campaign? Would he have a strong spoiler effect on Hillary Clinton's campaign?

0%, he rationalized supporting Bill Clinton over third party in the 90s despite his disagreements with Clinton back then, he also said from day 1 and before day 1 of entering the democratic race that he would endorse the eventual nominee.

On the other hand, people want to ignore the elephant in the room, Trump, who said that before he even ran that he would run independent if he lost the primary, and said that the pledge was in default during the on-going primaries. Trump was also a former actual member of the Reform party. Trump also wouldn't need to spend that much, Perot didn't, both got tons of free media, and Trump had around ~110 mil cash on on hand from his Apprentice earnings, which is all he would need, and is inflation-adjusted about equal to the amount that Perot spent.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The 2020 GOP is stuck with Trump in the same way the 1980 Democrats were stuck with Jimmy Carter. 

The longer I live, the more I am convinced that if Carter had not been challenged by Kennedy he would have been re-elected. 

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

The 2020 GOP is stuck with Trump in the same way the 1980 Democrats were stuck with Jimmy Carter. 

The longer I live, the more I am convinced that if Carter had not been challenged by Kennedy he would have been re-elected. 

-Kennedy didn't take down Carter. Reagan, the hostage crisis, and the recession did.

[Lord Admirale]

Is it at all possible for Trump to win in a landslide due to the Democratic vote being split? I understand Bernie running as an independent against Trump and Hillary is far-fetched, but its a fun scenario to think about.

[President Underwood]

Realistically, an Independent run by Bernie would effect the election minimally. Sure, he would get more votes than he did OTL, but for the most part, the Dems would come back to their party, and the GOP would do the same. 

A couple of close states (Minnesota, New Hampshire, At-large Maine) would probably swing to Trump, but is seems unlikely his (Bernie's) campaign would gain enough traction to do anything more than that.

However, even without Bernie getting that much traction, the Hillary's margin in NYC, New York, and other huge cities would drop, possibly delivering the popular vote to Trump, but even that is unlikely.

[Lord Admirale]

Realistically, an Independent run by Bernie would effect the election minimally. Sure, he would get more votes than he did OTL, but for the most part, the Dems would come back to their party, and the GOP would do the same. 

A couple of close states (Minnesota, New Hampshire, At-large Maine) would probably swing to Trump, but is seems unlikely his (Bernie's) campaign would gain enough traction to do anything more than that.

However, even without Bernie getting that much traction, the Hillary's margin in NYC, New York, and other huge cities would drop, possibly delivering the popular vote to Trump, but even that is unlikely.

Bernie did have a rather large following, so it is possible for the Democratic vote to be completely split. Bernie had strong appeal among young liberal voters, while Hillary had appeal to moderate  Democrats.

I don't think Bernie would take big states like California or New York, but I could definitely see him take his home state of Vermont and maybe Hawaii (if he is very lucky).

[Stranger in a strange land]

The 2020 GOP is stuck with Trump in the same way the 1980 Democrats were stuck with Jimmy Carter.  

The longer I live, the more I am convinced that if Carter had not been challenged by Kennedy he would have been re-elected.  

-Kennedy didn't take down Carter. Reagan, the hostage crisis, and the recession did.

Hot take: the Kennedy Primary challenge was a symptom of larger problems with Carter and his presidency, not the problem itself. Same goes for the 2016 Dem Primary.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I think he might have taken a big chunk or even split the Hillary vote, and barely would've dented Trump's numbers at all.  Want an example, look at Utah and replace McMullin with Bernie and you'll get an example for average of the rest of the nation.

Trump would've received the landslide he claims he had.

[DPKdebator]

Here are three scenarios. Bernie would have no chance of winning, but would end up burning the bridge for Hillary to win the election.

1. Assuming the 2016 campaign is otherwise similar/the same, Bernie is mostly just a nuisance that only takes a tiny fragment of Clinton voters, which ends up spoiling MN, NH, and ME for Trump.

Trump - 328 EV, 45.7%
Clinton - 210 EV, 46.4%
Sanders - 0 EV, 1.9%

2. Bernie has a moderate showing (somewhat similar to Perot '96), possibly to the point of participating in debates. Has little effect outside of the Northeast (where Bernie gets 4 EVs), Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest.

Trump - 364 EV, 45.5%
Clinton - 170 EV, 41.9%
Sanders - 4 EV, 9.3%

3. Bernie ends up totally splitting the Democratic electorate while Republicans are mostly united, and basically causes anti-1992 to an even stronger extent.

Trump - 451 EV, 44.9%
Clinton - 72 EV, 28.2%
Sanders - 15 EV, 25.4%

[Lord Admirale]

3. Bernie ends up totally splitting the Democratic electorate while Republicans are mostly united, and basically causes anti-1992 to an even stronger extent.

Trump - 451 EV, 44.9%
Clinton - 72 EV, 28.2%
Sanders - 15 EV, 25.4%

I think Sanders would take Hawaii. He won the primaries with a 40-point margin between him and Clinton.

[bagelman]

If he did something like this, the post-election narrative would be that Hillary Clinton would have won the electoral college if Bernie didn't run.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The 2020 GOP is stuck with Trump in the same way the 1980 Democrats were stuck with Jimmy Carter. 

The longer I live, the more I am convinced that if Carter had not been challenged by Kennedy he would have been re-elected. 

-Kennedy didn't take down Carter. Reagan, the hostage crisis, and the recession did.

If Kennedy had not run, John Anderson's candidacy would have gotten no traction amongst Democrats; indeed, it probably wouldn't have gotten off the ground.

If Kennedy had not run, Carter would probably have saved a number of Democratic votes who went to Reagan due to party disunity and the fact that Democrats, themselves, were questioning his competency. 

Kennedy's challenge and Anderson's third party candidacy eroded a good deal of the incumbent advantage Carter had.  It was a tough climb for Carter, but he might have made it had Kennedy never happened, because if Kennedy hadn't happened, Anderson wouldn't have happened, IMO.