Primus Inter Pares - A UK Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2012:

Can Boris match Burnham's appeal?

After six years of leading the party, in bad health and having just heavily lost the 2011 it was time for Patten to go. An ambivalent Conservative Party was grateful to him for having led them into power once again, yet disappointed that his appeal hadn't lasted longer. Having lost a large part of the Parliamentary Party in the election meant that the field was not as large as it was once expected, and in the end, it was four MPs who contested the leadership: Boris Johnson, former Culture Secretary and a One Nation Eurosceptic; Damian Green, former Chancellor and the Pattenite Liberal; William Hague, former Leader of the House and the Eurosceptic Compassionate Conservative; and Dan Hannan, the Eurosceptic Libertarian from the backbenches.

First Ballot:

Dan Hannan: 64
Boris Johnson: 36
Damian Green: 35
William Hague: 23

Final Ballot:

Boris Johnson: 53.3%
Dan Hannan: 46.7%

With the bulk of the surviving MP's belonging to the Eurosceptic tradition Hannan found resounding success among them, dominating the first ballot as Hague floundered and Johnson narrowly edged Green to reach the membership ballot. Said ballot was a contest of personalities more than policy (as both Johnson and Hannan argued for the Conservatives to turn Eurosceptic again), particularly as the Tories wanted "an Andy Burnham of our own". In the end, it was Boris's strange brand of charisma and populism who won over the membership, narrowly defeating Hannan. Lurching to the right with his shadow cabinet, the highly ambitious Johnson was on the hunt.

Conservative Leader: Boris Johnson
Shadow Chancellor: Daniel Hannan
Shadow Home Secretary: Michael Gove
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Theresa Villiers

But could he deliver?

[Lumine]

New Labour Review, 2012:

David Miliband, heir to Blair

Party Ballot:

Reform Party: 60.6%
Dissolution: 39.4%

Having faced near extinction at the hands of Burnham in 2011 with a handful of MP's left, the New Labour rebels faced the crossroads. With former Foreign Secretary Tony Blair accepting the need for his retirement he led a full-scale review of New Labour, giving the membership the right to choose between two motions. One, led by Oona King, recommended dissolving so members could join Labour or the Lib Dems, while David Miliband and Alan Milburn advocated turning New Labour into a full party on its own, a social-democratic "Reform Party". After a tough campaign the decision to rebrand New Labour won by a large majority, a few members of the party returning to Labour as the others decided to move on. Without a clear challenger, David Miliband was acclaimed Reform leader afterwards.

[Lumine]

The Burnham Ministry (2011-2015)

Prime Minister: Andy Burnham
Deputy Prime Minister: Yvette Cooper
Foreign Secretary: Angela Eagle, then Emily Thornberry
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Ed Miliband
Home Secretary: Ben Bradshaw

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street under a general sense of optimism, having enchanted the electorate after the years of the Coalition government. For the next four years the Prime Minister was to remain very popular with the electorate personally, although his government would suffer from a lacklustre performance on several key areas. Some of those issues were attributed to several scandals and gaffes inside the government which reminded some of those that had taken place under Major and Heseltine, resulting in more than a few resignations (particularly for highly vocal ministers from the hard-left wing). A similar case took place with the backbenches, as despite having a strong majority in Parliament Burnham often found it hard to reconcile the views of each Labour "tribe", particularly given the headaches over European policy.

The economy was an area in which much care was placed, with Chancellor Ed Miliband trying his hardest to temper the negative effects of the past crisis and lead the country into an easier recovery. While Miliband succeeded in restoring higher levels of growth into the British economy and even temper some of the worst effects for some communities by 2014-2015, he was unable to reign in the deficit as spending was to skyrocket once again, forcing him into making tough decision. While growth was indeed on the rise, most analysts believe the recovery is not fully over, its consequences still being fought against. As a result ongoing debates have taken place inside the party, with the ancient "Brownite" faction rising from political death to push for a more fiscally responsible policy for the nation.

Foreign policy was, to many, defined by both an historic failure and an historic triumph for Burnham and the Labour Party. It's biggest failure was defined by the rise of the Arab Spring and the civil war caused by the collapse of the Iraqi Regime led by the sons of the recently assassinated Saddam Hussein, chaos breaking out as most of the Middle East reached a revolutionary (democratic or not) fervor. Foreign Secretary Eagle was to spearhead an attempt to bring down the Iraqi government, which resulted in chaos as the lack of a suitable follow-up plunged the region further into disaster. Eagle was to resign afterwards. It's biggest success was of course, Europe. Even if Burnham found it impossible to force his immigration plans through, his European Referendum (won, according to most pundits, by Burnham's passionate campaign and by the many scandals of Robert Kilroy-Silk. who collapsed the Leave efforts) delivered an historic result in favor of Europe, enabling better integration with the community.

On the domestic front Labour took an active profile in passing legislation, although its effects were to be considered of a mixed nature. The re-nationalization of a few key industries privatized under Patten led to a loss in confidence by businesses, and those public services failed to pick up or become competitive at all. On the other hand, Burnham was able to enact some successful reforms in the NHS and in Education, expanding coverage to a certain degree despite warnings the current system would find it hard to cope. Immigration was an issue in which Burnham fought hard, achieving some increased border security but being unable to reform Europe from inside to drive down net migration.

Finally, in Opposition terms Burnham would be seen as regularly besting Boris Johnson despite his bravado and his constant media appearances, retaining high personal approval ratings against the Conservative Leader and indeed most of the other opposition parties. Despite the continued existence of Reform undercutting the center-left votes that Burnham hoped to obtain, the collapse of New Deal after the EU Referendum was seen as a triumph from Number 10. With Kilroy-Silk's violent and chaotic departure and several party figures defecting to Labour or the Conservatives, Burnham believed he had finished the serious threat he faced across the North due to New Deal's past popularity. Hoping to seize a unique chance, an early general election was called.

[Lumine]

October 2015 General Election:

October 2015 - Woolfe pulls off an historic upset, but falls short

Labour Party: 33.8% (339 MP's)
Conservative Party: 17.0% (126 MP's)
New Deal: 23.5% (71 MP's)
Lib Dems: 8.4% (31 MP's)
Reform: 2.8% (5 MP's)
Green Party: 8.4% (1 MP)
Others: 6.1% (43 MP's)

The Election of 2015 was to be a consistent case of study for political experts around Britain, many baffled at the campaign itself and its odd results. Conventional wisdom after the referendum victory dictated Burnham was to sail away at an easy new victory with an increased majority, with many wondering it Boris Johnson would restore the standing of the Tories. The campaign could have followed such a road, were it not for two main factors which reshuffled the entire board: first, the announcement from the European Commission that they would veto Burnham's much vaunted proposal to restrict freedom of movement, and second, the uncovering of an unprecedented scandal across the European Parliament which uncovered impressive levels of corruption among several MEP's, hitting hard both Labour and the Conservatives.

To their merit Berry, Davey and Miliband fought brave campaigns, but the spotlight was stolen by Steven Woolfe. Leading a divided and broken party New Deal was granted a new lease of life following the scandals surrounding Europe, which he used to full-effect. Rallying thousands of voters (or new voters) who had developed "buyer's remorse", Woolfe soon overtook Johnson as a string of gaffees undermined the Tory leader, shooting up in the polls after a memorable debate performance which many compared to Kilroy-Silk's best performances back in 2006. It was such an unexpected rise that it took all other parties by surprise, Labour panicking during the last half of the campaign as Woolfe took an actual lead in the polls and regional polling showed an unusual revival for Plaid Cymru and, more decisively, the Scottish National Party.

What exactly saved Labour is up for dispute, many pointing out to a large defection of Green voters to Burnham to keep Woolfe and New Deal out. On Election Night, the prediction models were broken by the unexpected turnout, overcoming 1992 in size as Britons went by the millions to the polling booths to support either Woolfe or Burnham, the main contenders in the fight. In the end, however, Labour recovered more votes than it lost due to the fears of New Deal, and by holding above 30% kept its majority by default, sustaining some losses to Woolfe, but particularly to the SNP in Scotland, which tied Labour at the popular vote and won some 16 MP's of their own this time around.

Berry held onto her seat barely, losing one. Miliband's Reform lost more than half its MP's as well, surviving only on well-targeted constituencies. Ed Davey held onto the over 30 Lib Dem MP's with a single loss, which counted as a victory given the circumstances. The Conservatives, bleeding votes yet again, slumped to less than a 130. Woolfe, for all the hype surrounding his historic campaign and surge would make an impressive 60 gains, yet would remain in third with only 71 MP's to account for. A dumbfounded Burnham entered Number 10 with a weakened position and talk of a leadership challenge, but with a majority still.

[Lumine]

THE END

[White Trash]

I'm going to miss this.

[MAINEiac4434]

This was a lot of fun. Well done, Lumine.

[Lumine]

This was a lot of fun. Well done, Lumine.

Thank you!

I'm going to miss this.

It's great to see it left an impact.

I'm thinking of starting the sequel tonight, actually.

[Intell]

1945? now or?

[Lumine]

1945? now or?

Sorry, not 1945. It's interesting, but I simply don't have the knowledge to do it (and I had to spend a lot of time doing research for Primus Inter Pares despite having a decent grasp of the context).

No, we're going to the swinging sixties!

[Intell]

1945? now or?

Sorry, not 1945. It's interesting, but I simply don't have the knowledge to do it (and I had to spend a lot of time doing research for Primus Inter Pares despite having a decent grasp of the context).

No, we're going to the swinging sixties!

For this TL, would be possible if you wrote out differences in economic policy, and British Society politics, social policy etc, and the world in general.

[Lumine]

1945? now or?

Sorry, not 1945. It's interesting, but I simply don't have the knowledge to do it (and I had to spend a lot of time doing research for Primus Inter Pares despite having a decent grasp of the context).

No, we're going to the swinging sixties!

For this TL, would be possible if you wrote out differences in economic policy, and British Society politics, social policy etc, and the world in general.

How so? (geniune question, I didn't get the meaning)

[Intell]

1945? now or?

Sorry, not 1945. It's interesting, but I simply don't have the knowledge to do it (and I had to spend a lot of time doing research for Primus Inter Pares despite having a decent grasp of the context).

No, we're going to the swinging sixties!

For this TL, would be possible if you wrote out differences in economic policy, and British Society politics, social policy etc, and the world in general.

How so? (geniune question, I didn't get the meaning)

The attitudes in british society, opinions towards different issues.

Economic Policy, what economic policy is in place, and the differance than in RL, nationalised industries, NHS investment etc.

The unemployment rate, scope of social welfare etc.

Social Policy, such as difference to the EU, women's rights, LGBT rights?

The atititudes that are held by the public, presumably more left-wing, and more friendly to the EU.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

This has been a fantastic run - well written, well organized, and generally enjoyable. I'm looking forward to the new series!