Primus Inter Pares - A UK Election Series (Master Thread)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

You might want to shorten those URLs.

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 2002:

"Red Ken" Livingstone, unexpected Prime Minister

First Preference:

Leader:
Ken Livingstone: 34,3%
Tony Blair: 31,4%
Robin Cook: 28,6%
Margaret Beckett: 5,7%
Gordon Brown: WITHDRAWN

Deputy Leader:
Jeremy Corbyn: 46,2%
David Blunkett: 26,9%
Clare Short: 11,5%
Harriet Harman: 11,5%
Michael Meacher: 3,8%

With the resignation of John Prescott due to his many affairs, Labour was faced with the first leadership election in eight years. Despite the widespread interest of about a dozen Labour MP's to run for Leader only five candidacies took form, and four alone reached the voting process. Tony Blair, Margaret Beckett, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook and Ken Livingstone all launched their own bids having gathered (some barely so) the signatures needed. Alas, Gordon Brown's campaign collapsed when on his first campaign event he was overheard referring to a group of Labour voters concerned about immigration as "bigoted". The resulting media storm forced Brown, increasingly sick of politics, to bow out of the contest. With Margaret Beckett failing to find momentum, the race turned into a clear three-way contest between Cook, Blair and Livingstone (all representing different factions), with Cook eliminated on the first preference ballot. On the Deputy Leader election it was Jeremy Corbyn who had clearly captured the enthusiasm and the support of the party members, winning a large plurality over David Blunkett.

Final Preference:

Leader:
Ken Livingstone: 60,0%
Tony Blair: 40,0%

Leader:
Jeremy Corbyn: 53,6%
David Blunkett: 46,4%

Whislt many expected a close result due to Livingstone's incredible surge in support amongst the Labour grassroots (as opposed to MP's, where Blair had more support), the party had continued to change during the Prescott years and had found electoral success in declining to go down the modernization route, making Blair a candidate too much into the right of the party to be a truly acceptable leader. Despite serious concerns about Livingstone's stances on issues like Northern Ireland (which would play a role in some tragedies to come), Blair found himself defeated once again, almost with the exact margin with which Prescott had beaten him in 1994. Despite faring much better, Blunkett narrowly lost to Corbyn to deputy leader, turning the Labour leadership entirely to the hard-left. Suddenly turned into the Prime Minister, Livingstone attempted to start his tenure on a more conciliatory note, trying to build bridges with the soft-left:

Prime Minister: Ken Livignstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Patricia Hewitt
Home Secretary: Peter Hain
Foreign Secretary: Robin Cook

The following years would be among the most dramatic in British politics.

[Lumine]

The Livingstone Ministry (2002-2005)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Robin Cook, then Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Patricia Hewitt, then John Cryer
Home Secretary: Peter Hain, then Michael Meacher

If many found Prescott's term to be divisive, they had no idea of what was to come. Having taking the party and the country by storm Livingstone began on a fairly conciliatory note, appointing a cabinet with a strong soft-left presence (particularly Cook as Foreign Secretary), taking immediate steps to withdraw British troops from Afghanistan before the next General Election and famously saying "NO" to President McCain when it came to the start of the so called "African Intervention", which would find large success in Sudan by capturing Osama Bin-Laden before entering a quagmire in Nigeria and Somalia. With Ann Widdecombe's leadership beginning to cause much doubt amongst the social-liberal wing of her party, Livingstone spend the last months of 2002 with big plans in office, spearheading a large number of initiatives that culminated in the passing of pro-LGBT and anti-discrimination laws and a national minimum income.

And then it all started to go downhill. The first signs of trouble came from foreign policy, as Clare Short's ceasefire in Northern Ireland restarted the peace process. Livingstone, a committed believer of a united Ireland changed the negotiations dramatically by giving much more influence to the Republican side and entering intensive talks with the IRA, going as far as suggesting to return Northern Ireland to Ireland itself. The result caused not only the DUP, but the UUP and a large part of Ulster to erupt in anger, making the talks collapse in early 2003 and soon seeing renewed hostilities between the IRA and the Ulster Loyalists, which Livingstone withdrawing British troops from Northern Ireland and refusing to send them back. Similar criticism was caused by Livingstone's staunch support for Palestine, calling Israel's creation a "catastrophe" and leading to a breakup of the relationship to Tel-Aviv after a publicized visit to Gaza. Another storm was brought by his huge support for the Euro, leading Livingstone to attempt to join the Euro without a referendum.

Early going bad during late 2003, the government faced a worse crisis still, this time on the economy. Inheriting a steady economy from Prescott the UK went stable for the first few months of Livingstone despite a mass rise in spending, until Livingstone's failed attempt to join the Euro, his bank nationalization scheme (successful in nationalization a couple of banks before stalling) and the mismanagement by Chancellor Patricia Hewitt led to the pound crashing in December 2003, sending Britain straight into recession. Livingstone had to contend with the ongoing crises in Northern Ireland and the economic downturn while seeing his party back to full-scale civil war, as the Modernizers and even parts of the soft left resisted many of his policies, even within the cabinet. Tired of the dissent and encouraged by Deputy Prime Minister Corbyn, Livingstone sacked Robin Cook and almost two fifths of the cabinet on February 2004 to cement the rise of the hard-left, putting Meacher as Home Secretary, Mullin as Foreign Secretary, John Cryer as Chancellor and promoting rising stars like John McDonnell, Diane Abbott and George Galloway.

One area which helped Livingstone was the loss of competence from the Conservatives despite the government's failures. Highly successful against Prescott, Widdecombe's secured leadership enabled her to harder her views and stances on the issues, leading to the resignation of leading social-liberals like John Bercow and Alan Duncan from the frontbench and much division amongst the Conservative Party. Despite Livingstone continuing to score success in the domestic front due to his large majority, promoting substantial reforms to education and particularly to environmental protection, the crisis in Northern Ireland, his fights with other world leaders, the economic crisis and ongoing party instability took its toll during 2004. Believing that the only way to succeed was to fully take control of the party, the Labour hard-left activists began to mobilize to secure the deselection of those MP's more to the right, eliminating at least a dozen and raising up the alarms inside the party. The straw that broke the camel's back, however, was the leaking of a white paper on the replacement of the monarchy.

On August 2004, two years after Livingstone took office, the so called "Gang of Five" of Tony Blair, Oona King, Alan Milburn, Frank Field and Ruth Kelly emerged out of Westminster to announce that they could no longer support Livingstone, and that they would be sitting as Independent Labour MP's (due to the scars of the SDP, they decided against a breakway party). Soon between two and three dozen rebel MP's followed, either by not being able to defend Livingstone's policies anymore or after being deselected by their local parties. Angrily Livingstone and Corbyn demanded the rebels to call by-elections. Oona King accepted the challenge and routed her Labour challenger, ending the calls. With the Labour rebels gaining support in late 2004, Widdecombe saw her moment to act and mounted opposition to the planned nationalization of several more banks, which Livingstone turned into a vote of no confidence. Due to the nature of the crisis, he narrowly lost the vote on December 2004.

It was time for a new general election.

[MAINEiac4434]

Told you so.

Can't wait for Prime Minister Foster!

[Lumine]

February 2005 General Election:

February 2005 - Livingstone hangs on

Labour Party: 34.9% (320 MP's)
Conservative Party: 32.6% (225 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 19% (55 MP's)
New Labour: 7.6% (14 MP's)
Others: 6% (32 MP's)

It was one of the most bizarre campaigns seen in British politics, with a result which left all three major parties in an ironic situation of disappointment. Due to the economic crisis and the perceived low popularity of the Livingstone government Widdecombe and the Tories started the campaign in the lead, with Foster and Blair being close to Livingstone in terms of the vote. This lead lasted through the early campaign, with the Lib Dems and New Labour confidently betting on a 100 seats for their parties (despite running against each other on many seats) and the Conservatives dreaming of unseating Livingstone to win a small, but workable majority. That this didn't happen was a subject of much study and scrutiny, for during the other weeks the Labour vote stabilized and even saw a rise to a narrow lead, which was only secured in the last days.

Two main factors appeared to be decisive: one, that the Labour base chose not to abandon Livingstone despite their misgivings about the Prime Minister, giving further relevance to his domestic accomplishments and in the hopes that his reshuffled cabinet could turn things about. And two, the deep divisions in the Opposition. Whatever the dreams of Blair, Foster and Widdecombe, all proved unsuitable to capitalize on the election at the right moment. Blair, while truly successful in electing several New Labour MP's and proving more skilled at that than the old SDP, was not the man to draw a larger still defection from Labour, and took many votes from the center. Foster's dynamism appeared to be increasingly gone, fighting the election in a "one more heave" attitude that was perceived to hurt the Lib Dems in the polls. Widdecombe, despite her passion at the campaign trail, was the target of immense satire and attacks from the media, combined with positions that turned off swing voters and even social-liberal Conservatives.

A stunned nation woke up to see Labour retaining a victory in the popular vote despite a large swing against the government, losing them their majority but leaving a strong minority of 320 seats. The Conservatives, despite making decent gains in terms of MP's actually lost ground in the vote share, a fact which enraged CCHQ and the Parliamentary Party. New Labour lost several of their candidates and MP's (including Ruth Kelly), but more than a dozen MP's survived, including Blair, King, Milburn and Field. The Liberal Democrats, under Foster, woke up to the disappointment of not even breaking 20% and 60 seats, targets that were considered all too possible. Despite a failed attempt at building bridges with the Lib Dems (Livingstone was willing to offer electoral reform, but his party wouldn't hear of it), Labour eventually sailed on as an unstable minority, an early election expected for 2006 and 2007.

Tony Blair remained as head of New Labour as the MP's pondered on whether to actually start a new party, and Don Foster resigned voluntarily after his failure to achieve the breakthrough. The knives also came for Widdecombe, leading to her resignation a few days after the Queen's Speech.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So basically, polls in PIP-Britain are the opposite of polls in RL-Britain and have a "shy Labour" effect.

[Intell]

Told you so.

Can't wait for Prime Minister Foster!

k.

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2005:

Iain Duncan Smith, the Quiet Man

Brought about by the resignation of Ann Widdecombe (following a disappointing performance in the 2005 General Election), leaving the party deeply divided over what course to follow in order to finally achieve victory against Labour. At the time, within the Shadow Cabinet it was widely believed David Davis would be the strongest consensus candidate from the right, become the first candidate to announce. Soon followed (also from the Shadow Cabinet) Theresa May in a modernizing bid, and Iain Duncan Smith as the Thatcherite standard-bearer. And from the backbenchers not only did Malcolm Rifkind attempt a comeback with the support of David Cameron and George Osborne, but Chris Patten himself decided to run after Ken Clarke declined to do so. With five candidates (several potential contenders standing down), the field was set.

First Ballot:

Chris Patten: 85
Iain Duncan Smith: 70
David Davis: 35
Theresa May: 21
Malcolm Rifkind: 14

The campaign for the first ballot was a contentious one, with several candidates making criticisms of the way the Conservative Party was seen and the need to rebrand the party in order to return to government. With May and Rifkind failing to win traction, the most surprising development was the virtual collapse of the Davis campaign, spurred by a poorly ran campaign, lacklustre media performances and an unconvincing platform. As a result, among MP’s the victory belonged to Chris Patten, turned into the electable champion of the left, and Iain Duncan Smith, turned into the ideological Thatcherite champion. With Davis, May and Rifkind out of the running both frontrunners went to the membership ballot, another fight for the soul of the party.

Membership Ballot Results:

Iain Duncan Smith: 55.2%
Chris Patten: 44.8%

To his merit Patten fought hard in order to win, despite the uphill battle of convincing a deeply Eurosceptic party to embrace a more Eurohphile leader. Despite being seen as a poor media performer Iain Duncan Smith was more successful in hitting the right notes for the membership, including an uncompromising stance against Labour which appeared to re-energize the party. And sure enough, as the votes were counted IDS could count on a convincing win against his foe. The Conservative Party had chosen ideological purity against perceived electability, and the next General Election was increasingly seen as a “must win”. With several prominent Europhiles led by Patten and Clarke deciding to remain on the backbenchers, IDS assembled his shadow cabinet:

Conservative Leader: Iain Duncan Smith
Deputy Leader: William Hague
Shadow Chancellor: David Wiletts
Shadow Home Secretary: Tim Collins
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Malcolm Rifkind

Could the Quiet Man succeed where Redwood and Widdecombe had failed?

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 2005:

Can Simon Hughes achieve the Lib Dem breakthrough?

First Round:

Simon Hughes: 40.0%
David Laws: 33.3%
Charles Kennedy: 26.7%

Last Round:

Simon Hughes: 50.1%
David Laws: 49.9%

Deputy Leader Election:

Menzies Campbell: 62.1%
Vince Cable: 37.9%

Despite some calls for him to stay, Don Foster tendered his resignation as Leader of the Liberal Democrats following a failure to capitalize on the 2005 General Election, ending a successful tenure of eight years leading the party. One of the main issues for the election was the open call by Tony Blair to form a "progressive alliance" of sorts so both parties fought the next election together. The call, supported by Foster, became an issue as relevant as where to take the party next. With Menzies Campbell and Vince Cable running for Deputy Leader, the leadership battle was fought between Charles Kennedy, Simon Hughes and David Laws. Despite Kennedy having the support of Foster his campaign fell behind amidst rumours of a drinking problem, allowing Laws and Hughes to reach the end of the contest as Campbell won a resounding victory in the Deputy Leadership battle.

The rounds between Hughes and Laws, however, turned bitter soon. Laws drew fire on Hughes's opposition to same sex marriage and his excessive closeness to Labour on many issues, whereas Hughes attacked Laws as a "closet Tory" and questioned his support for an alliance with Tony Blair. In the end, it was Hughes's percieved likeability and closeness to the voters combined with his left-wing pitch that won over the membership, fighting a close battle in which he edged Laws by the narrowest of margins. Despite belief that a recount should have been held Laws refrained from doing so, conceding to Hughes so the party would heal rapidly from the contest to fight the next general election.

[Lumine]

The Livingstone II Ministry (2005-2006)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Cryer
Home Secretary: Michael Meacher

Having survived the election, Ken Livingstone was now leading a minority government. To his credit, despite speculations on an election as early as October 2005 Livingstone survived all the way to February, before losing another vote of no confidence.

Despite the opposition of New Labour and the Lib Dems to several of his policies, the major area of success for Livingstone during this brief parliament was domestic policy, as there was still enough consensus within the parties of the left and the center-left to continue passing some accomplishments on domestic policy that redoubled environmental reforms, further NHS expansion and a large-scale transport plan for London and several key UK cities which resulted in a reasonable starting success. The economy, however, continued to go downhill with John Cryer's 2005 Budget failing to stop the recession with large spending increases. Indeed, by the start of 2006 some have begun to talk of a "depression" (particularly as the US economy has also crashed under President Howard Dean's watch), as unemployment begins to grow out of control.

In foreign policy the Northern Ireland situation continues to grab headlines, as unionist and republican groups openly attack each other across Ulster and dozens of minor terror attacks take place across the country, leading to a growing surge for the radicalized DUP across the land. Despite this crisis, Livingstone's main focus for the year was his risky European gamble, calling on a referendum on the Euro and the European Constitution while defying the Eurosceptics on his party. To his merit, Livingstone got the European Constitution approved (which would be accepted by the entire EU by 2006), but faced a resounding defeat on his promotion of the Euro as the solution to the UK economic woes. Livingstone's image polarization continued, being deeply unpopular on several regions but still widely supported in others.

Right after the September referendum (which had pushed an early election a few months in the future) came the decisive time, as Labour began to gear for a leadership challenge against the Prime Minister. Despite Livingstone bracing for a contest, it amounted to nothing after the unexpected death of the strongest available challenge, former Foreign Secretary Robin Cook. As a result, Livingstone had to face yet another split in the Labour Party as the Eurosceptic left revolted: As UKIP and the Eurosceptic parties faced imminent collapse former Labour MP Robert Kilroy-Silk founded New Deal, a new Eurosceptic party of the left which won the defection of Labour MP Gisela Stuart and New Labour MP Frank Field.

In the end, what brought Livingstone down this time around was his decision to push through a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should return to Ireland, parliamentary vote which he turned into a vote of no confidence to reassert his leadership. IDS, Blair, Hughes and Kilroy-Silk all called his bluff and defeated him by two votes on January 2006. A new General Election was scheduled in March.

[Lumine]

March 2006 General Election:

March 2006 - Kilroy-Silk, man of the hour

Labour Party: 30% (292 MP's)
Conservative Party: 28% (246 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (43 MP's)
New Labour: 11.5% (36 MP's)
New Deal: 11.5% (6 MP's)
Others: 5% (27 MP's)

The campaign began amidst a sense of uncertainty, with the Conservatives and the Lib Dems under new leadership and the polls constantly predicting a hung parliament, a complicated outcome to have due to the hostility amongst New Labour and many Lib Dems towards both Iain Duncan Smith and Ken Livingstone. Despite the desire for change in a large part of the electorate, the Conservative campaign soon became infamous not only for its poor propaganda (due to IDS's placing key but less competent allies in CCHQ), but for the total lack of charisma by their own leader, which hampered the entire operation to defeat Livingstone. But while some expected the Lib Dems to capitalize on the weakness of the Conservatives it soon became clear Simon Hughes was not the man for the task. Despite a strong start, Hughes's efforts became unraveled as newspapers leaked the fact that he had had homosexual experiences in the past, bringing questions to his opposition to gay marriage.

As the campaign went for the first few days and Hughes and IDS faced hostile scrutiny some predictions turned towards Labour making a few gains off the Conservatives and securing a small but workable majority. Then Robert Kilroy-Silk made his mark. It was the first time a leader's debate was to be held in the UK, and after much speculation Livingstone, IDS, Hughes, Blair and Kilroy-Silk managed to agree to have a five-way debate. It was to become known for Blair's well managed and well-recieved appearance (giving extra life to New Labour), for Livingstone's famous cornering of Hughes's on gay marriage, and more importantly, for the live and complete evisceration of Iain Duncan Smith by Kilroy-Silk, who went after him with all guns blazing and left the Conservative leader unable to respond to fierce criticism about his character and his policies.

The effect on the polls was explosive. Kilroy-Silk was the man of the hour as New Deal began to  rise, easily hitting 20% in the national polls despite the fact that his party had no candidates in most of the country. The collapse of the Conservative campaign led many to fear a wipeout, and with IDS ineffective as ever it took a collective effort from popular figures like Patten and Clarke to take over the campaign and renew their attacks into Livingstone and Kilroy-Silk. In the end, with economic conditions failing to improve as unemployment rose all the way to election night, the nation woke up to an even more Hung Parliament. Labour and the Conservatives alike had lost 4%, meaning that Labour, once again the victor, stood at 292 MP's with just over 30% of the vote, almost thirty seats away from a majority. The Conservatives won some twenty extra MP's on ridiculously margins, spared only by the divisions across the board. Hughes and Kilroy Silk faced disappointment at their own respective performances, Hughes dragging his party back to 2000 levels as Kilroy-Silk only returned 6 MP's despite winning more than 10% of the vote overall. The one winner of the election was, ironically, Tony Blair, by claiming the ideological center and massively expanding to almost 36 MP's, close to the Lib Dems.

With only a Labour government being remotely feasible, Livingstone sent for Hughes and began to discuss the possibility of a coalition government, making significant progress before finding trouble again on electoral reform. Even if Livingstone and many of his allies believed in voting reform, a large part, if not the majority of the party opposed it, making it impossible to sail through parliament. Hughes, on the other hand, had to contend with the right of his party informing him that he would face a leadership challenge, making a coalition unsustainable. A couple of days before a vote of no confidence ousted Iain Duncan Smith as Conservative Leader and Nick Clegg challenged Hughes for the Lib Dem leadership, Labour and the Lib Dems signed onto a basic Supply and Confidence arrangement, allowing Livingstone to pass a Queen's Speech and a Budget before facing the country again by the end of the year.

Many wondered whether the political crisis was ever to end.

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 2006:

To the shock of Westminster, Clegg unseats Hughes

Only Round:

Nick Clegg: 57.6%
Simon Hughes: 42.4%

After a lacklustre performance in the latest general election, and having drawn negative attention to himself for his seemingly contradictory stance on gay marriage, Simon Hughes was weakened as leader. It was widely believed he'd have to face criticism from his party and calls to change his course. What people didn't quite expect was a leadership challenge, launched by some party factions once it became clear Hughes was determined to expand his much vaunted "Supply and Confidence" deal into a future coalition with Livingstone. With Laws refusing to stand it was the little known, inexperienced MP Nick Clegg who challenged Hughes, many expecting he'd force the embattled leader into further policy concessions.

Yet to the shock of many Clegg proved a superb contender in the leadership race. Doing well in the leadership debates, scoring the right notes with many in the center and even the center-left of the party and putting forward the merits of returning to the center-left towards a different course convinced many members worried about further losses in the next election. By the time the election itself was held Clegg had reason to expect a strong performance, but what most of the press and Westminster never envisioned came through. Clegg unseated Hughes outright, with a strong majority behind him. Under new leadership the Liberal Democrats would suddenly take the fight to Livingstone with determination, culminating in the historic joint speech by Nick Clegg and Tony Blair which created a new alliance of the center-left.

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2006:

Chris Patten, revenge of the Tory Left

Iain Duncan Smith led the Tories for only a year, and was widely considered one of the worst leaders the party had up to that point. Despite a situation that should have been favorable, his lack of charisma had allowed the New Deal party to explore out of control to capture many Tory voters despite its leftist platform, and he had made a fool of himself by allowing his party's poll ratings to collapse into an unprecedented 28% (which led to an ironic increase in seats due to the division of the party system). While IDS believed it was only natural he'd be allowed to stay as leader until the next general election expected for that year, his critics had had enough, and promtly forced his resignation. After some soul searching Patten decided to stand again for the leadership with the added support of the modernizers, and with the Thatcherite right out of steam after three General Election defeats it was the more moderate William Hague who rose as the challenger from the Shadow Cabinet.

Only Ballot:

Chris Patten: 151
William Hague: 95

It was a brief contest leading for the first ballot of MP's, and a remarkably civil one as Hague and Patten offered different perspectives on modernization: one more conservative and aiming for unity, the other with the ambition to seize the political center. Whilst many agreed that  had it been a contest with an open period of opposition ahead with a larger field Patten would not have made it through, the sense of despair the party was in proved enough. Hague achieved a respectable result in the first round of MP's, but Patten had garnered almost two-thirds. Hague was entitled to a second round in the membership, but stating that he could not attempt to lead the party after Patten's victory, he conceded. Patten, having secured his once unexpected comeback, retained Hague and entrusted him with leading the campaign, demoting Tim Collins and David Wiletts (too associated with the IDS campaign) to promote young David Cameron and no other than Ken Clarke, who returned to the frontbench for the first time since 1996.

Conservative Leader: Chris Patten
Deputy Leader/Party Chairman: William Hague
Shadow Chancellor: Ken Clarke
Shadow Home Secretary: David Cameron
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Malcolm Rifkind

And yet, would the Conservatives survive to the danger of New Deal organizing itself for a nationwide campaign?

[Lumine]

The Livingstone III Ministry (2006)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Cryer
Home Secretary: Michael Meacher

British politics were as divided as ever as two-party politics had suddenly turned into five-party politics. And yet, despite continuing to bleed votes Ken Livingstone sailed to another partial victory in April by winning a minority, which he turned into another government by securing a Supply and Confident deal with Simon Hughes and the Liberal Democrats (which many expected could turn into an actual Coalition before long).

Having bet on Iain Duncan Smith leading the Tories to further disaster in December and Hughes propping up Labour, Downing Street was shocked by the quick succession of events in May and June, Tory and Lib Dem revolts knifing not only IDS but Hughes himself and installing Chris Patten and Nick Clegg as their respective leaders. Suddenly both parties had turned into the centre, and with Clegg being an avowed critic of Livingstone’s hard left policies the Supply and Confidence deal entered into crisis barely two months after the election. As a result and all the way into December Blair, Clegg and Patten led an effective opposition, with Labour standing him as the backbenchers decided to support their Prime Minister against the onslaught (Livingstone found an unlikely ally on many votes on Kilroy-Silk, now an MP).

With most government proposals stalling, facing defeat or gridlock, Livingstone was unable to pass even his domestic agenda, which he had at least been able to do during 2005. Only a second referendum on Welsh devolution was approved, Prime Minister Livingstone relived to see it pass (if by a small margin). Foreign policy continued to be a hot issue on account of Northern Ireland related violence as 2006 turned into one of the most violent years, a DUP and a Sinn Fein MP being killed on separate terrorist bombings. The closest thing to a success was, ironically, to be found on the economic front, as Chancellor Cryer’s ongoing stimulus spending managed to halt the rise in unemployment, allowing it to stabilize in its current high levels through the year. Despite avoiding scandals or mishaps due to a tighter ship being run in Downing Street (enforced by several allies of the Prime Minister led by John McDonnell), Livingstone’s standing on the opinion polls was perceived to be going down as voters saw little end to the crisis.

While the minority of the Labour government became harder to sustain after Clegg reneged from the supply and confidence arrangement, neither Patten nor Clegg felt ready for an early election in September. In the end, Patten called a vote of no confidence in October, and the Conservatives, New Labour, the Lib Dems and New Deal brought down the Labour government again. A second election (the third in two years) was to be held in December 2006, polls predicting another hung parliament to come.

[Lumine]

December 2006 General Election:

December 2006 - Chris Patten ends a decade of a Labour government

Conservative Party: 29.2% (291 MP's)
Labour Party: 14.5% (128 MP's)
Alliance: 25.2% (118 MP's)
New Deal: 25.2% (82 MP's)
Others: 6% (31 MP's)

The main question hanging in the election was that of Robert Kilroy-Silk. Affectionally referred to as "the Kil-Silk", the leader of New Deal had garnered enough support to field his party across most of the United Kingdom, and was riding at more than 20% in the polls as one of the major parties in contention for the government. Indeed, with the Tories and the Alliance failing to find their voice in the early days due to internal issues (the Thatcherites making life hard for Patten, and Clegg and Blair not having a very positive personal relationship), many wondered whether Britain was bound to choosing between Livingstone and Kilroy-Silk as their next Prime Minister. The campaign would be shaken by the events that came on the first of two debates agreed by the leaders, leading to one of the most historic meltdowns for a party in British politics.

Rather than focus fire on Patten as he did with IDS, Kilroy-Silk dedicated the debate to target Livingstone, constantly attacking him and hoping to provoke him on an outburst. He got exactly what he wanted as the debate turned into foreign policy and Livingstone's poor relationship with Israel, with Kilroy-Silk angering the Prime Minister so much than Livingstone made a remark to the effect of Hitler having collaborated with Zionist groups. The debate turned into a historic disaster, with Kilroy-Silk seizing control of the stage and the audience while systematically bashing the Prime Minister on live television, a fact many saw as Kilroy-Silk's personal revenge for his personal struggle against Militant and the Labour hard-left in the 80's. The effect in the polls was explosive, with some polls putting New Deal as high as 40% and models going as far as suggesting Kilroy-Silk would not only enter Downing Street, but would do so with a strong majority.

The second debate was the last chance the other parties had to stop New Deal, and they seized it. While the embattled Livingstone saw Labour's poll ratings collapse as voters flocked to New Deal (and some to New Labour), Patten, Clegg and Blair all drew fire on Kilroy-Silk, landing several blows and provoking him this time to make questionable statements. As New Deal's poll ratings returned to earth (but remained ahead of all parties), all the leaders braced for the impact of Election Night as unemployment resumed its rise through November, halting a last minute offensive by Labour to prevent a disaster. To the shock of many observers the threat of New Deal didn't materialize as expect, garnering a still impressive 25% of the vote but only returning 80 MP's due to the electoral system. Patten's Tories polled ahead on 29% and thirty seats short of a majority, while the Alliance of Blair and Clegg achieved its breakthrough on a solid 118 seats (61 Lib Dem, 57 New Labour).

Labour, however, faced electoral collapse in a manner not seen before. Polling less than 15% and with half their vote share gone (many drawn into Kilroy-Silk's message), Labour lost more than 160 MP's (a few more than the Conservatives lost in 1996), including Chancellor of the Exchequer John Cryer, former Deputy Prime Minister Margaret Beckett and former Home Secretary Frank Dobson. Talk in the aftermath of the election suggested the Conservatives could attempt a minority government, but with Northern Ireland and unemployment still so explosive Patten made the bold choice to opening talks with Clegg and Blair for a National Government of sorts. In the end, after a week of tense negotiation the three leaders hammered an agreement for a Coalition government, making Clegg Deputy Prime Minister and Blair Foreign Secretary as both parties agreed to several policy concessions.

Chris Patten became Prime Minister by mid December, and Britain had its first Coalition government since the war.

[Maxwell]

Would Labour split into two, with half of it joining New Deal and half joining Alliance, making the party system.

Conservatives - Generic Conservative party, split on europe
Alliance - Center to Center Left, Pro-Europe
New Deal/Labor - Hard Left, Euro skeptic.

[MAINEiac4434]

We finally get a Livingstone Hitler reference! Excited to see what Patten will do, particularly in regards to Northern Ireland - he played a role in the IRL peace process.

[Lumine]

We finally get a Livingstone Hitler reference! Excited to see what Patten will do, particularly in regards to Northern Ireland - he played a role in the IRL peace process.

Seemed perfect to explain his party's collapse, really. I'll do the dice rolls for Patten after we have a Labour leader.

Would Labour split into two, with half of it joining New Deal and half joining Alliance, making the party system.

Conservatives - Generic Conservative party, split on europe
Alliance - Center to Center Left, Pro-Europe
New Deal/Labor - Hard Left, Euro skeptic.

Certainly a possibility, a lot depends on who's elected to the Labour leadership.

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 2007:

Andy Burnham, the man to return Labour to government?

First Preference:

Leader:
Jeremy Corbyn: 38,5%
Andy Burnham: 28,2%
Angela Eagle: 25,6%
Harriet Harman: 7,7%

Deputy Leader:
Chris Mullin: 44,4%
Yvette Cooper: 21,3%
Hilary Benn: 21,1%
Jack Straw: 15,2%

Ken Livingstone's resignation meant that a new leadership election was to take place, and all different factions geared up to seize the party despite it's incredibly weakened performance after a traumatic result in the last General Election. With Acting Leader Jeremy Corbyn attemping to take the crown as Livingstone's heir and the hard-left faction, three different challengers emerged from different sides: Andy Burnham, Harriet Harman and Angela Eagle. With Harman failing to make an impact as the so called "Brownite" faction was finally swept away (their once leader Gordon Brown enjoying a revival outside parliament as a respected TV presenter), leaving Corbyn to top the poll as Eagle and Burnham battled for the second place. In the end, amidst perceptions that Burnham was a less suspicious choice than the unorthodox Eagle, he defeated Eagle to advance to the second round. The Deputy Leadership race was seemingly less competitive, with Chris Mullin winning overwhelming support and entering a second round with the unity candidate of sorts, Yvette Cooper.

Final Preference:

Leader:
Andy Burnham: 61,8%
Jeremy Corbyn: 38,2%

Deputy Leader:
Yvette Cooper: 64,5%
Chris Mullin: 35,5%

And yet, despite Corbyn and Mullin's strong performances, both lost the leadership races by astounding margins. Much has been written to explain the collapse of their support, some of i it attributed to fears that Corbyn would be a disastrous Leader of the Opposition (not helped by Patten utterly trouncing him at PMQ's), and that Mullin, while a well-liked man, would mean too much influence for the seemingly discredited Livingstone faction. In the end, both Burnham and Cooper proved reasonably left-wing to a majority of the party, and managed to overcome the odds by turning into the "not hard-left" candidates. Facing a divided party but confident that Labour could rebound, Burnham reshuffled the shadow cabinet right away:

Labour Leader: Andy Burnham
Labour Deputy Leader: Yvette Cooper
Shadow Chancellor: Ed Milliband
Shadow Home Secretary: Ben Bradshaw
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Angela Eagle

[Lumine]

The Patten Ministry (2006-2011)

Prime Minister: Chris Patten
Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg
Foreign Secretary: Tony Blair
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Ken Clarke, then Damian Green
Home Secretary: David Cameron, then Francis Maude

Chris Patten entered Downing Street 10 with a near unassailable majority due to his Coalition agreement with the Alliance, but facing a Britain more divided than ever due to the economic and political crisis. Most political commentators believed the Coalition would crash sooner rather than later, but Patten, Blair and Clegg ended up proving the pundits wrong by sustaining the ministry all the way through a full five-year term. Indeed, it would be a common running joke that Patten agreed more with the Alliance on several issues than with his own backbenchers, which combined to a positive relationship to Blair (installed as Foreign Secretary) and Clegg (Deputy Prime Minister and Education Secretary) and allowed New Labour and the Lib Dems to substantially influence government policy, from the passage of substantial constitutional reform in 2008 (which to the disappointment of Clegg led to FPTP being preferred by the electorate) to the legalization of gay marriage in 2009.

With the economy remaining in a recession amidst high unemployment, it fell to Chancellor Ken Clarke to attempt to revive the economy. Whilst the gradual privatization of a large part of what had been nationalized by Prescott and Livingstone proved successful in raising revenue and improving public services, it was a daunting task to handle unemployment, seek to reduce the enormous deficit and deliver on the promises of further tax cuts. Receiving Patten’s full backing against the attacks from the Tory right Clarke moved into a more pragmatic mindset, stimulating the economy through a more Keynesian approach and raising taxes when necessary. From a low point in late 2008, Clarke slowly revived the economy into growing once again, through a painful but ultimately successful effort as unemployment began to scale down. Clarke would ultimately step down in 2010 due to exhaustion, being promoted to First Secretary of State as Damian Green was handed over the treasury to begin promotion of Patten’s so called “Social Market”. As of 2011 Britain’s economy is well on the way of recovery, but unemployment remains high and spending continues to be on levels hard to sustain.

Domestic policy had less direct relevance than foreign affairs and economic policy, but was also an area in which the Coalition found accomplishments due to their large majority to promote policy. Beyond the Alliance proposals regarding political reform and gay marriage, Home Secretary David Cameron (and later the returning Francis Maude) presided over large-scale decentralization of the police from Whitehall, as well as an expansion of the security agencies. With a mixed record on the promoted reforms in education and the NHS (with some indicators positive and others negative), the one issue that continued to elude Patten was immigration, with net migration levels continuing to increase without the Coalition managing to slow them down. Foreign affairs under Patten were however seen on a highly positive line, from the start of a new defence build-up after large-scale cuts under Labour (including the promotion of a new nuclear deterrent) to the high-profile and accomplishments of Foreign Secretary Tony Blair, who together with Patten signed an historic ceasefire in Northern Ireland in 2010 and a tentative peace deal in 2011; and a series of humanitarian interventions in the African war zones abandoned by the US under President Howard Dean (2005-2009).

As Prime Minister Patten has retained reasonably high approval ratings, aided by the division of the opposition and the constant struggles of Andy Burnham as Leader of the Labour Party, who has faced no less than six defections to either the Alliance and New Deal and has had to contend with the rise of the Greens as a potential rival. On the other hand, the division in the Tory benches has continued, enacting pressure over the Prime and leading a handful of Tory MP’s to defect to New Deal as well. More concern has been the increasing rise in political scandals, which exploded in full as the so called “expenses scandal” rose to prominence in 2010, leading to the recall of several MP’s from different parties (thus fuelling New Deal and the Greens) and a drop of trust in politics. The government itself has faced some debilitating scandals from the three main parties, leading to humiliating resignations of ministers like Chris Huhne and particularly David Cameron, once the rising star of the Coalition.

Despite talk of an early election due to the expenses scandal (and due to some of the most polemic moments of the Coalition), neither Patten, Clegg or Blair felt strong enough to go for such a move, and ended up setting the election for the last possible moments in hopes of the economy continuing to improve further. With five-party politics potentially turned into six due to the rise of the Green movement, would any of the Coalition parties be returned into Government?

[Lumine]

December 2011 General Election:

December 2011 - Andy Burnham, the People's Prime Minister

Labour Party: 35.6% (358 MP's)
Conservative Party: 18.0% (158 MP's)
Alliance: 10.1% (44 MP's)
New Deal: 16.8% (11 MP's)
Green Party: 14.6% (2 MP's)
Others: 5% (27 MP's)

Initially confident about their chances, soon the leaders of the Coalition realized they were in trouble. Against the odds Burnham and Cooper had revamped the Labour HQ and their electoral machine, starting the campaign having firmly recovered from the Livingstone disaster back into the high twenties as a serious opponent to Patten, Clegg and Blair. Even with the Green Party surging upwards of 5% Labour was winning over more voters than it lost, with young voters preparing to turn out for Burnham and even more, New Labour and New Deal voters returning back to their previous home. Confident, Burnham held his ground and ran a slick, well prepared campaign to restore trust on his party, seeking to be a candidate of hope.

In contrast, his main rivals proved unprepared for the task. Kilroy-Silk was facing increasing infighting on New Deal as his public standing began to collapse due to his controversial statements, the novelty of his party wearing off as Burnham had outflanked him on immigration. The Alliance was beset by the increasingly negative relationship of Clegg and Blair, who fought a divided campaign as their parties suffered a mass loss of center-left voters flocking to the Greens and to Labour. And the Conservatives fared no better, partly because unemployment had begun to rise again through the final months of 2011, but more importantly because of Patten. Seen as too old by the electorate, Patten's standing was irreversibly damaged when he suffered a health scare on the second week of the campaign.

Despite his recovery, the incident brought his age into question as to whether he could handle the job, and with the Conservatives blamed by a recovery that was seen as not fast enough by the voters and lacking clear leadership their poll ratings began to collapse. Despite a limited scare by the aggressive and brilliant campaign of Berry's Greens, Burnham was successful in bringing back center-left voters and in portraying himself as the only credible Prime Minister in a time of economic hardship. Despite only garnering 35% of the vote, the sheer division of the vote assured Burnham an outright landslide of giant proportions.

Winning over more than 200 seats across the country to secure a safe majority in the House of Commons, Patten's Conservatives lost almost half their seats, but withstood the barrage as the Official Opposition by staying at almost 160. The Alliance faced a far worse wipeout, with almost two-thirds of their MP's being defeated across the country (including Foreign Secretary Tony Blair, although Nick Clegg survived on a reasonable majority). New Deal held onto their vote share better than the Alliance, but fared worse as Labour recaptured the countless seats it had lost to Kilroy-Silk. Kilroy-Silk himself lost his seat in live TV (leading to the famous "Were you still up for Kilroy-Silk?") as New Deal was pushed back to a mere 11 seats. Berry, to her disappointment, could only elect two MPs despite almost reaching 15% (Caroline Lucas and herself).

After five years of an unusual Coalition government, Andy Burnham entered Downing Street with high approval ratings, some describing him as "The People's Prime Minister". Could he deliver?

[White Trash]

Is New Deal ever going to get a leadership election or is it too small?

[Phony Moderate]

2018 boundary changes don't appear to be in the software at the moment; it does appear to have a way in which one can edit constituency boundaries but I'm a tad too lazy to do that. But here is the result for the traditionally Labour seat of Mansfield (one that is unaffected by the upcoming boundary changes):

Labour, 23035 - 43.0%
New Deal, 15155 - 28.3%
Conservatives, 6475 - 12.1%
Greens, 5520 - 10.3%
Alliance, 3003 - 5.6%

Alan Meale re-elected, assuming he's still in the Labour Party in this world.

Which seems about right to me. Labour and New Deal combined vote much higher than the national average, Tories lower, Greens lower (tbh they'll be pleased to crack 10% in a seat like this) and Alliance lower.

[Lumine]

Is New Deal ever going to get a leadership election or is it too small?

It's not an issue of size, it's because Kilroy-Silk basically dominates the party machine and refuses to stand down or allow a contest. The fate of New Deal and its future will probably depend on an upcoming vote that's coming after the other leaders are in place.

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 2012:

Despite an election defeat, the Orange Book Liberals stay in control

Leader:

Ed Davey: 54.5%
Charles Kennedy: 45.5%

Deputy Leader:

David Laws: 60.0%
Tim Farron: 40.0%

Crushed at the 2011 General Election after five years of Coalition with the Tories and New Labour, the party was in a serious crisis of identity. With several potential candidates out of contention after losing their seats and the refusal of Davis Laws to run for leader (trouncing Tim Farron instead for the Deputy Leadership), both the Lib Dem right and left fielded standard bearers of their own: the veteran Charles Kennedy and the younger Ed Davey. A more policy focused debate than in other races and with the Alliance formally dead Kennedy and Davey went all out to raise support for their respective visions of Liberalism, Kennedy on the Ashdown and Foster tradition and Davey on the Orange Book Liberalism of Clegg and Laws.

Whereas many expected Kennedy to clinch victory, Clegg kept tight control over the party apparatus as well as most of the surviving MP's, and rumours about Kennedy's potential drinking problem undercut his efforts as well. In the end, Davey won a convicing victory and captured the leadership with Laws as his Deputy, taking the Lib Dems to the "radical centre".