Primus Inter Pares - A UK Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

Primus Inter Pares:

In a Britain fast approaching the new millenium, how will the political stage develop?

List of British Prime Ministers:

John Major (Conservative Majority): November 1990 - July 1995
Michael Heseltine (Conservative Majority): July 1995 - November 1996
John Prescott (Labour Majority): November 1996 - July 2002
Ken Livingstone (Labour Majority, then Minority): July 2002 - December 2006
Chris Patten (Conservative/Alliance Coalition): December 2006 - December 2011
Andy Burnham (Labour Majority): December 2011 - Unknown

Intro:

Having grown fascinated with British politics over the past few months, I've decided to start one of these interactive TL's, and see how different (or similar) things could be in the span of twenty years or so. Inspired by a thread concerning the potential downfall of John Major in 1995, this TL begins at the Conservative Leadership Election of 1995. In the original race John Major recieved only three more votes than his self-imposed limit for resignation, and in this timeline a bigger number of abstentions and votes for his challenger John Redwood forces Major to resign, creating an open race for the leadership. We will be following the main leadership races of the Labour and Conservatives parties, referendums and general elections, and see how things develop until the present time.

List of Conservative Leaders:

John Major: 1990 - 1995
Michael Heseltine: 1995 - 1997
John Redwood: 1997 - 2001
Ann Widdecombe: 2001 - 2005
Iain Duncan Smith: 2005 - 2006
Chris Patten: 2006 - 2012
Boris Johnson: 2012 - Unknown

List of Labour Leaders:

John Smith: 1992 - 1994
John Prescott: 1994 - 2002
Ken Livingstone: 2002 - 2007
Andy Burnham: 2007 - Unknown

List of Lib Dem Leaders:

Paddy Ashdown: 1988 - 1997

Don Foster: 1997 - 2005
Simon Hughes: 2005 - 2006
Nick Clegg: 2006 - 2012
Ed Davey: 2012 - Unknown

List of New Labour Leaders:

Tony Blair: 2004 - 2012

List of New Deal Leaders:

Robert Kilroy-Silk: 2005 - 2015

Steven Woolfe: 2015 - Unknown

List of Green Leaders:

Siân Berry: 2009 - Unknown

List of Reform Leaders:

David Miliband: 2012 - Unknown

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 1995:

Michael Heseltine, Britain's new Prime Minister

First Ballot:

John Major: 211
John Redwood: 94
Abstentions: 10
Spoilt/No Vote:14

The 1995 Conservative Leadership Election was launched after John Major's decision to confront his Eurosceptic critics head on. Resigning the leadership to the call of "put up, and shut up", a widely expected challenge from former Chancellor Norman Lamont failed to materialize, leaving the Welsh Secretary and ardent Eurosceptic John Redwood to challenge the Prime Minister directly. The first ballot was filled with speculation on whether Redwood could damage Major enough to force his resignation, allowing for a change in leadership in the party and for new candidates to stand on the second. Major won, but having scored less votes than his target of 215 he quit as Prime Minister.

Second Ballot:

Michael Heseltine: 157
John Redwood: 82
Michael Portillo: 71
Gillian Shephard: 20

Many in the party unwilling to accept Redwood as PM, heavyweights Michael Heseltine on the left and Michael Portillo on the right launched their campaigns, followed by dark horse moderate Gillian Shephard. Portillo and Redwood fought hard for the Eurosceptic, Thatcherite vote until a scandal developed in the media as Portillo was outed for his homosexual experiences in university, leading prominent social conservatives from his camp to defect to Redwood. With many MP's turning to Heseltine seeing him as the only electable candidate, Heseltine led in the second ballot, Redwood becoming his main challenger.

Third Ballot:

Michael Heseltine: 225
John Redwood: 104

With Shephard backing Heseltine, it all came down to Portillo's historic decision. Rattled by the personal attacks from former allies and with Redwood resenting Portillo's inability to stand against Major, Portillo decided to cut a deal with Heseltine, securing the Treasury and some key policy consessions from his rival, ambitious enough for the crown to be willing to negotiate. The deal damaged Portillo among Eurosceptics but allowed many MP's in the right to find Heseltine acceptable enough, allowing him to trounce Redwood in the final ballot. After two decades of yearning the leadership and Downing Street 10, Michael Heseltine has finally become Prime Minister. Can he turn the Conservative Party around?

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 1994:

John Prescott, Labour's new champion

First Preference:

Leader:
John Prescott: 35,9%
Tony Blair: 30,8%
Gordon Brown: 23,1%
Margaret Beckett: 10,2%

Deputy Leader:
Margaret Beckett: 55,9%
John Prescott: 44,1%

The 1994 Labour Leadership Election came about due to the sudden and unexpected death of Labour Leader John Smith, stunning the party and the nation as Smith was widely believed to be Britain's next Prime Minister. With John Prescott and Margaret Beckett waving the banner of the soft-left while also battling for Deputy Leader, the modernizing wing failed to make a united stand after Tony Blair and Gordon Brown both insisted in launching their own campaigns, splitting their faction and poisoning their previously strong relationship. With Brown and Blair locked in civil war Prescott led in the first ballot, while Beckett captured the Deputy Leadership.

Final Preference:

Leader:
John Prescott: 60.7%
Tony Blair: 39,3%

With Beckett endorsing Prescott his campaign turned into the frontrunner for the leadership, despite heavy media and polling backing for Blair. The exact role of Gordon Brown has been shrouded in mystery as Brown half-heartedly endorsed Blair, yet many of his supporters appear to have turned towards Prescott rather than Blair, who during the contest was percieved to have gone too far on his proposals for modernization and taking the Labour Party deep into the center. As a result, Prescott won a resounding mandate to halt modernization and take Labour into a more leftist stance once again. The shockwaves were felt early as Prescott reassembled the entire leadership team following the Shadow Cabinet elections, demoting Blair, Brown and Jack Cunningham to form a team of his own trust:

Labour Leader: John Prescott
Deputy Labour Leader: Margaret Beckett
Shadow Chancellor: Robin Cook
Shadow Home Secretary: Frank Dobson
Shadow Foreign Secretary: George Robertson

But with a growing rift in the party between modernizers and Prescott loyalists, could John Prescott finally take Labour into Government?

[Lumine]

The Heseltine Ministry (1995-1996)

Prime Minister: Michael Heseltine
Deputy Prime Minister: Michael Howard
Foreign Secretary: Kenneth Clarke
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Michael Portillo
Home Secretary: Gillian Shephard

Michael Heseltine entered Downing Street 10 as the result of an unholy alliance within his party, many of his usual critics seconding his bid for the leadership out of the belief that Heseltine was the one man who spare the Conservative Party from a full-scale disaster in the next election. And despite his strongly Europhile views, Heseltine had decided to compromise with Portillo to attempt to unite the party before the election. Portillo became Chancellor as fellow Eurosceptic Michael Howard was kicked upstairs to become Deputy Prime Minister as a signal of unity, Ken Clarke was moved to the Foreign Office and Shephard, having put down a marker despite a less than ideal performance, became the Home Secretary.

Heseltine, therefore, got on the business to trying to steer his party into success and the country into trusting the Conservative Party again, with mixed results [1]. His biggest break came due to the election of John Prescott as Labour Leader, as despite Prescott’s populist appear it didn’t take long for Prescott and his supporters to enter a full-scale civil war with Tony Blair and the modernizers, who feared Labour was turning too far into the left under the new Leader. Indeed, Heseltine often bested Prescott in PMQ’s (leading to several memorable sketches in the revived satiric show Spitting Image) and made much of the Labour Party’s return into socialism to portray that they weren’t to be trusted. Polling for the Conservatives steadily improved, despite Prescott still holding a large lead.

On actual policy performance, the Conservatives also found a degree of renewal and success with the new Prime Minister. Having inherited an increasingly steady economy by Ken Clarke, Chancellor Portillo took the chance to significantly lower taxes in the 1996 Budget, attempting to do his best to deliver on past promises of lower taxation as inflation went down and employment was reasonable contained within a 6% range. In domestic term, Heseltine led a personal charge for efficiency in government, establishing several new committees in cabinet with the target of reducing unnecessary bureaucracy in Whitehall while promoting several schemes to improve services in the National Health Service and improve the competitivity of British industries (the noteworthy failure being that of British Rail, whose privatization has been poorly handled). In foreign policy Clarke secured successes as well, charting a steady course with China over the imminent Hong Kong handover and finding growing consensus inside Europe.

But two issues made governing immensely difficult for Heseltine.

On the first front was the “sleaze” problem, which wouldn’t let the Conservatives go. Even as Heseltine did his best to avoid promoting ministers involved in scandals (outside of a few close allies) stories of Tory MP’s involved in sexual and financial scandals continue to appear periodically in the press, leading to much ridicule and scorn. Of a much serious note was the appearance of the so called Scott Report on arms sales to Iraq during the late 1980’s by the Conservative Government back then, the one major success of the opposition as Shadow Foreign Secretary George Robertson inflicted heavy damage on the government as the issue became more publicised.

The worst problem by far was, however, backbench discipline. John Redwood’s refusal to serve in a Heseltine-led Cabinet signalled that infighting was not to end, leading to constant battles and rebellions against Heseltine’s European policy in a manner resembling of Major. Heseltine was, on one side, to prevent a few MP’s from defecting to Labour and the Lib Dems and therefore able to save the dwindling Tory majority, yet the constant attacks by the Eurosceptic backbenchers despite the official support of Howard and Portillo by the Prime Minister became harder and harder to control.

By the end of 1996 and after a year in office Heseltine faced the critical strategic decision: he could wait until May 1997 for the economy to continue its recovery but face his backbenchers bringing down the government, or he could call an early election in the hope of a shock Conservative victory despite unencouraging polls. Against the objections of Clarke, Shephard and Howard, Heseltine and Portillo agreed to take the gamble, calling a General Election by November 1996. With a somewhat successful 16 months in office and moderately popular, Heseltine hopes to bank on a growing economy and the change of leadership to take the Conservatives into their fifth straight victory.

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[1] The performance of each Prime Minister is to be determined via dice roll on seven different categories that measure different aspects of performance.

[Lumine]

November 1996 General Election:

November 1996 - Heseltine and Prescott fight the battle of their lives

Labour Party: 47% (426 MP's)
Conservative Party: 33.4% (185 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 10.6% (19 MP's)
Others: 9% (29 MP's)

The campaign started on a good note for the Conservatives, Heseltine taking the Opposition by surprise by launching an early election. Running on a moderate yet modernizing manifesto Heseltine was particularly successful in taking advantage of Paddy Ashdown's left-turn for the Lib Dems, preventing key defections from voters into the Lib Dem camp. Yet by the second week Labour was fully adapted and prepared for battle, and John Prescott took the fight to the Conservatives with a fiery disposition and a burning desire for victory. Despite having neared 40% in the initial polls, Heseltine would soon see his numbers go down.

In retrospect, most political experts agree too many factors were against the Tories for Heseltine to overcome them all. Despite a strong economy and a change in government, the division of the party over Europe was as plain as ever, many MP's still defying Heseltine in the middle of the campaign. That had to be combined with the memory for Black Wednesday, the internal injuries of Major's resignation, the steady stream of "sleaze" scandals from MP's such as Neil Hamilton and, more important than anything, that the electorate was not inclined to give the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt after seventeen years in government. To make matters worse, the Referendum Party of Sir James Goldsmith captured about 3% of the vote despite poor organization, costing the Conservatives as much as twenty seats.

Labour didn't had a slick media operation (as Prescott refused to hand the campaign to modernizers like Peter Mandelson), but it compensated with a deep sense of Conservative fatigue, a strong and clear message (if significantly to the left) and above all, the charisma and appeal of John Prescott. Widely mocked by the Conservatives due to his confusing sentences, lack of syntaxis and his rough manners, his attitude was well received and even embraced as fresh by the voters, in deep desire for something new [1]. Compared to the sheer energy behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats failed to make a serious impact in the polls and the public debate, sinking rapidly.

The night was a hard one for the Conservatives as seat after seat fell to Labour, although Heseltine's approach and campaign strategy was believed to have saved at least a couple dozen seats from capture by the Lib Dems. Several government ministers like Ian Lang, Edwina Currie, Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Forsyth fell, but the toughest blow was when Chancellor of the Exchequer Michael Portillo lost his seat to Labour. The Lib Dems faced a gloomy night as well, with a net gain of 1 MP (losing several seats won in by-elections), the loss of almost half their voteshare and the fall of key MP's to Labour in Simon Hughes, Robert Maclennan, Vince Cable and particularly Charles Kennedy.

Speaking with beaming confidence and joy, John Prescott declared a new dawn for Britain to end almost two decades of Conservative governments. On their own side, Michael Heseltine and Paddy Ashdown decided to stay on for a few months to stabilize their parties, and then hold a leadership election.
_________________________________________

[1] In this case, Prescott being a sort of Boris Johnson in terms of appeal.

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 1997:

Don Foster, the Lib Dems's new hope

Only Round:

Don Foster: 53,6%
David Rendel: 32,1%
Menzies Campbell: 14.3%

Afer a disappointing performance in the 1996 General Election and the widespread loss of many voters, Lib Dem Paddy Ashdown resigned. The party appeared to be a crossroads, lacking a clear sense of purpose while also needing to score gains at the next election to appear a truly viable option. With the defeat of MP's such as Charles Kennedy preventing them to enter the contest (and with candidates likes Malcolm Bruce finding little support), the race was envisioned to be one in which heavyweight Menzies "Ming" Campbell would fight the lesser known challengers Don Foster (from the left) and David Rendel (from the right). That this didn't happen was in large part due to concerns over Campbell's age and health, as his claims of being fit for the leadership appeared hollow following a series of serious health-scares through the campaign.

His efforts collapsing due to these concerns and a badly run campaign, the contest turned into a battle on whether to take the Lib Dems back to the center, as Rendel argued, or further into the left, option which Foster embraced. Despite Rendel's continued criticisms of the Prescott government the contest was believed to be civil, and it ended with Foster securing a convincing majority on the first round while Rendel, to his solace, found a strong base of support. Humilliated by his poor result Campbell retired from the frontbench, despite remaining an MP. Whereas John Prescott was adamant in shutting down talk of a Lib-Lab coalition (to the disappointment of Tony Blair and others), Foster nonetheless would do his best to turn the Lib Dems into a progressive left party over the next four years. It would remain to be seen whether it would help the party or not.

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 1997:

John Redwood, the Eurosceptic champion

First Ballot:

Ken Clarke: 81
John Redwood: 65
Michael Howard: 16
Stephen Dorrell: 15
Gillian Shephard: 8

Hampered by health issues and the election defeat, soon Michael Heseltine had to concede that leading the party was no longer possible for him, and so a leadership election was called for June 1997. With important contenders like Portillo, Rifkind, Patten and Lang out of the race due to no longer being MPs, the race was broadly believed to be battle of the left and right under Ken Clarke and John Redwood, with Michael Howard, Gillian Shephard and Stephen Dorrell launching bids of their own in an attempt to dethrone the frontrunners. Neither Dorrell nor Shephard managed to make a huge impact on their own, and while Howard presented a relevant challenge to Redwood in the right his bid was soon destroyed by a blistering attack by his former subordinate Ann Widdecombe on the media, stating among other things that Howard had "something of the night" about him.

Second Ballot:

John Redwood: 114
Ken Clarke: 71

The race therefore turned into a Clarke-Redwood contest, many giving the advantage to Clarke due to Dorrell's endorsement and his strong support in the constituency associations. That Redwood managed to win the contest after a hard fought campaign was believed to be an upset, and one most people blamed on the poor nature of the Clarke campaign in the second round. First because due to his confidence in victory Clarke did not temper his pro-Europe views, even making positive statements about the Euro that turned many moderates against his bid. The feeling was further enforced when it emerged that Clarke and William Hague (Howard's running mate) were discovered to be planning a pact between the Europhiles and Hague's minor faction, which many derided as throughly cynical and opportunistic. With Lady Thatcher herself doing everything possible to sink Clarke and promote Redwood, Clarke's fate was finally sealed with an unexpected defeat. Finally, the Thatcherites had gotten their man in.

After Clarke's refusal to join the shadow cabinet, Redwood took the bold step of allowing many party heavyweights to retire, promoting several of his rivals and the younger MP's in the party to his Shadow Cabinet:

Conservative Leader: John Redwood
Deputy Leader: Gillian Shephard
Shadow Chancellor: Peter Lilley
Shadow Home Secretary: Francis Maude
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Michael Howard

And yet, could the divisive Redwood prevent a split in the Conservative Party?

[Lumine]

The Prescott Ministry (1996-2000)

Prime Minister: John Prescott
Deputy Prime Minister: Margaret Beckett
Foreign Secretary: George Robertson, then Clare Short
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Robin Cook
Home Secretary: Frank Dobson

Backed by the strongest mandate in decades John Prescott entered Downing 10 Street as the first Labour Prime Minister since James Callaghan, having taken Labour back into the soft left following the efforts of Kinnock and Smith. Taking on virtually the same cabinet as his Shadow Cabinet (with exceptions like Tony Blair, who was sacked over his opposition to nationalization and George Roberson, replaced as Foreign Secretary after being chosen as NATO Secretary General), Prescott onto the business of delivering on his large scale proposals for Britain, resulting in a controversial (if popular with the electoral) tenure as Prime Minister.

The largest success of the Labour government is believed to be economic performance, as the current government inherited a strong economy which Chancellor Robin Cook has handled with skill, keeping spending moderate in 1997 before engaging in large-scale raises in public-spending in 1998, 1999 and 2000 which so far appear to have had a positive effect in investment and public services. Similarly, the government has also steered clear of most political scandals beyond inquiries on a couple of MP's like Peter Mandelson, and a few controversies over Prime Minister's Prescott fondness for expensive Jaguar cars, leading to Prescott being personally popular with the electorate due to his bluntness and perceived honest, a popularity which however hasn't extended to much of the Labour Party.

Of a more mixed nature was foreign policy. On the successful side, Prescott and his Foreign Secretaries Robertson and Short led acclaimed humanitarian interventions in Kosovo and particularly in Sierra Leone, where Short and Prescott are held in great esteemed after restoring a sense of stability in the country. On the more questionable side, a lack of coherence in both European policy and stances in Northern Ireland have proved a serious headache to the government, as the civil war over Europe that plagued the Conservative Party now takes place as well inside Labour, with the modernizing rebels defending entry into the Euro. To make matters more complicated, the Northern Ireland peace process has stalled due to the Unionists being distrustful of Prescott's approach and stances.

But what became the most controversial side of the Prescott government was, ironically, domestic policy. After a few first victories on devolution for a Scottish Parliament and a Mayor of London, the ambitious devolution agenda stalled after a shocking defeat in the referendum for a Welsh parliament. Similarly, Prescott's commitment to nationalization and the repeal of trade union legislation has strongly backfired, with several nationalized companies (water, rail and so on) proving unprofitable and incapable of improving public services in the way that was expected. Furthermore, the large-scale repeal of trade union laws under Margaret Beckett has empowered the unions to allow them to stage several successful strikes over 1999 and 2000, playing hard with the government and reminding people of the 70's under Wilson and Callaghan.

Governing has been made difficult by the ongoing rift inside Labour, as the modernizer faction has become more and more rebel over issues like nationalization and Europe. Led by Tony Blair (famously sacked by Prescott over nationalization), the rebels have often stalled some of Prescott's more leftist initiatives, aided by the fact that even with Prescott's immense majority a large part of the parliamentary party is formed by modernizers (although the Gordon Brown faction has continued to support the Prime Minister on most issues). With Don Foster's proposals for joint collaboration turned down the Lib Dems have turned more hostile, and despite the divisions inside the Conservatives John Redwood as proved a competent opposition leader, bringing disappointed eurosceptics back to the Tory fold while plans for a rebel Pro-Euro Conservative Party have failed after Heseltine and Clarke refused to support it.

Increasingly tired of the struggles over domestic policy and after almost four years in office Prescott has called another election to regain a mandate to push forward. It remains to be seen whether he can replicate his majority from 1996.

[Lumine]

October 2000 General Election:

October 2000 - Prescott sails into a second victory

Labour Party: 40.9% (407 MP's)
Conservative Party: 33.6% (183 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 16.5% (42 MP's)
Others: 9% (27 MP's)

The 2000 Campaign started in one of the oddest notes of any General Election, as while Prime Minister John Prescott was touring a marginal seat a protester threw an egg against him. Prescott quickly punched him, and the incident completely overshadowed the launch of the Labour manifesto. Seeing a chance for both of them, Redwood and Foster attempted to seize the agenda and did so for the first week of the campaign before Prescott apologized and returned to the warpath. Whatever doubts the incident created about his character, his personal popularity allowed him to ride out the storm despite Labour losing points in the polls.

Just how vulnerable Labour was or not became a moot point, though, as while Redwood's extremely right-wing manifesto closed his right flank and drew the Eurosceptic parties to near extinction in the popular vote, his stances turned off the political center which Heseltine had so carefully tried to court in 96', voters which soon found another appealing alternative in the Lib Dems despite their sharp turn towards the left. Indeed, Foster proved a highly effective leader on account of his enthusiasm and public appearances, recovering the lost ground from 1992 and targeting several seats he saw as winnable. Against this backdrop, all the inroads Redwood made against the Labour vote ended up quickly cancelled by all the votes lost to the Liberal Democrats.

Despite the ongoing mess on domestic policy issues the economy remained strong, the Prime Minister was personally popular and the Opposition considered too extreme to win, factors which combined to produce another clear victory for John Prescott. Labour lost almost 20 seats and over 6%, but remained above 400 votes and retained an unassailable majority. The Lib Dems finally made a breakthrough by winning over 6%, doubling their share of MP's and securing the return of MP's defeated in 1996 like Charles Kennedy, Vince Cable and Simon Hughes. The Conservatives had the most bitter night, barely winning votes overall and with a net loss of 2 seats. As John Prescott returned to Downing Street 10 amidst the cheer of the crowds and Don Foster celebrated an excellent result with his party, John Redwood promptly resigned. It was time for the third Conservative leadership election in five years.

[Lumine]

Are there any changes in the cabinet?

We'll get to that after the write-up of the Prescott II cabinet, but there should be a few.

[Lumine]

Will there be maps?

How could there be maps? (Honest question)

[Lumine]

Will there be maps?

How could there be maps? (Honest question)

I know that there are maps out there of what seats are being held by which party

Oh, those!

Sorry, no way, I don't have the time to make a map that accounts for 658 seats.

[Lumine]

The Prescott II Ministry (2000-2002)

Prime Minister: John Prescott
Deputy Prime Minister: Margaret Beckett
Foreign Secretary: Clare Short
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Robin Cook
Home Secretary: Mo Mowlam

Despite the difficulties of a controversial tenure John Prescott was returned as Prime Minister with a large majority, even if Labour had lost a substantial number of votes from 1996. Prescott extensively reshuffled the cabinet while retaining most of the holders of the great offices of state, with noteworthy additions such as Mo Mowlam as Home Secretary (as a olive branch to the modernizers) and the return of Gordon Brown to the backbenches. Determined not to get bogged down on his agenda like the past term, Prescott made it an immediate priority to deliver on his two pet proposals: Lords Reform and a devolution experiment in Northern England. To Prescott’s disappointment English voters turned down a local parliament in a 2001 referendum, but with the support of the Liberal Democrats the House of Lords was finally reformed. While unable to get rid of the Lords altogether, Prescott secured a plurality of the Lords elected via PR under party lists for each general election.

Thankfully, Labour managed to reduce their constant infighting in order to focus on governing, and continued to avoid major scandals affecting the cabinet outside of Prescott’s outbursts and gaffes. But despite the triumph of delivering on Lords Reform the domestic front for the Prescott Ministry continued to be filled with challenge and failures at implementing policy, the nationalized industries continuing to represent a major financial drain, public services failing to take off and immigration taking a large role in public debate as the government was unable to reduce the increasing influx of migrants into the United Kingdom. The economy, while still healthy was losing the effects of its earlier boom, leading Cook to continue to drive spending up in order to compensate.

Initially with few objectives beyond securing peace in Northern Ireland (with Clare Short obtaining a ceasefire in early 2002) on the foreign stage, the Prescott government had to face an ever-changing world due to the impact of the 9/11 attacks in the United States (with one of the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and the Capitol hit by planes), which led US President John McCain to pursue a global strategy to hunt down the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda and their leader Osama Bin Laden. Through the remainder of 2001 and early 2002 Prescott gave his full support to McCain, seconding his decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan that has seen the collapse of the Taliban regime as fighting spreads across the entire country. But with Bin Laden still on the run, McCain has decided to go further, devising a global strategy to combat Al-Qaeda and supporting regimes (or areas they control) which has targeted the al-Turabi regime in Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, and possibly Syria or Iraq for targets, something that has drawn scepticism from Prime Minister Prescott and Foreign Secretary Short.

To many it seemed Prescott would be forced to spend the next couple of years dealing with the fall-out of 9/11, until a bombshell was dropped in May 2002. Several tabloids ran a story (later confirmed) of Prescott having had several affairs in the past and a current one with one of his secretaries in Downing Street. Defiant at first and determined to fight, Prescott was successively worn down by criticism inside his party, attacks from the media and crucially, the steadfast refusal of his wife to support him after learning the truth. His position became increasingly untenable due to the pressure and particularly for several devastating defeats on PMQ’s, with the Conservatives delivering blow after blow to Prescott’s credibility. In the end, many in the cabinet advised him to step down, and Prescott finally conceded. Deeply shaken, Prescott emerged out of Downing Street 10 on June 2002 and announced his resignation, staying as a caretaker until Labour chose its new leader (and the new Prime Minister) in July 2002.

After more than five and a half years in office (one more than John Major), the Prescott Ministry was over.

[Lumine]

This is one of my favorite parts of Atlas right now.

Thank you, gentlemen!

If you could give me the template and an idea of what areas would swing I'd be happy to do it for you

Excellent!

Here are the full 1996 results: (with Bury St Edmunds, Colchester and Lichfield added as Conservative due to the margin)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33.4&LAB=47&LIB=10.6&UKIP=&Green=&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllMajoritySorted&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=1997

And here is 2000:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=33.6&LAB=40.9&LIB=16.5&UKIP=&Green=&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllMajoritySorted&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2001ob

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2001:

Ann Widdecombe, the Tories's Fighting Lady

First Ballot:

Ann Widdecombe: 58
Ken Clarke: 37
David Davis: 29
Francis Maude: 22
Peter Lilley: 22
Stephen Dorrell: 15

Having scored a disappointing performance in the 2000 General Election John Redwood resigned as Leader of the Conservative Party, starting the third leadership election in six years. With Michael Portillo and Chris Patten declining to return as MP’s and Malcolm Rifkind failing to retake a seat the contest saw six candidates fighting for the leadership: Ann Widdecombe, Ken Clarke, David Davis, Francis Maude, Peter Lilley and Stephen Dorrell (with potential candidates like William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith staying out). Despite speculation focusing on Clarke, Maude and Lilley as the main candidates, neither Maude nor Lilley managed to find success despite being considered the champions of their respective factions and the heirs to either Redwood and Portillo. Added with the inability of Dorrell to make grounds beyond his small base of MP’s all three were eliminated or withdrew after the first ballot. With Ken Clarke standing strong and the dark-horse David Davis surging as a clear option, it fell to Ann Widdecombe to emerge ahead of the divided field.

Second Ballot Results:

Ken Clarke: 78
Ann Widdecombe: 56
David Davis: 49

Turned into a three-way contest between Clarke, Widdecombe and Davis the contest turned towards the two candidates chosen for the membership ballot. It was Ken Clarke who proved more successful courting MP’s, bringing Dorrell and even Maude on board to form a larger coalition to take the leadership. Widdecombe, losing some ground on account of a few questionable media interventions, saw Davis rising behind her as the other notable Eurosceptic candidate on the race. With Clarke winning a large plurality of MP’s in the second round, Widdecombe edged Davis by seven votes to reach the final membership ballot.

Membership Ballot Results:

Ann Widdecombe: 54.2%
Ken Clarke: 45.8%

The final ballot was positively described as a “clash of the titans”. Widdecombe and Clarke both had enormous support amongst the membership, and quite possibly the two more popular MP’s in the party. Despite the clear policy differences (contrasting the social-conservative, Eurosceptic, authoritarian Widdecombe with the social-liberal, Europhile, and more relaxed Clarke), it was a mostly civil contest, supported by Clarke and Widdecombe’s positive personal relationship. Whilst both rejected the idea of serving in the Shadow Cabinet should they be defeated, they also did the best they could to prevent another civil war from taking place should either be elected. In the end, it was Widdecombe who proved to be more in tune with the feelings of the party membership, and despite a close result she defeated Clarke to take the leadership. Widdecombe moved to heal the wounds of the contest as soon as possible, assembling a Shadow Cabinet that represented different factions:

Conservative Leader: Ann Widdecombe
Deputy Leader: Stephen Dorrell
Shadow Chancellor: Oliver Letwin
Shadow Home Secretary: David Davis
Shadow Foreign Secretary: William Hague

Ann Widdecombe had taken her party by storm, could she do the same with the nation?

[Lumine]

Labour Leadership Election, 2002:

"Red Ken" Livingstone, unexpected Prime Minister

First Preference:

Leader:
Ken Livingstone: 34,3%
Tony Blair: 31,4%
Robin Cook: 28,6%
Margaret Beckett: 5,7%
Gordon Brown: WITHDRAWN

Deputy Leader:
Jeremy Corbyn: 46,2%
David Blunkett: 26,9%
Clare Short: 11,5%
Harriet Harman: 11,5%
Michael Meacher: 3,8%

With the resignation of John Prescott due to his many affairs, Labour was faced with the first leadership election in eight years. Despite the widespread interest of about a dozen Labour MP's to run for Leader only five candidacies took form, and four alone reached the voting process. Tony Blair, Margaret Beckett, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook and Ken Livingstone all launched their own bids having gathered (some barely so) the signatures needed. Alas, Gordon Brown's campaign collapsed when on his first campaign event he was overheard referring to a group of Labour voters concerned about immigration as "bigoted". The resulting media storm forced Brown, increasingly sick of politics, to bow out of the contest. With Margaret Beckett failing to find momentum, the race turned into a clear three-way contest between Cook, Blair and Livingstone (all representing different factions), with Cook eliminated on the first preference ballot. On the Deputy Leader election it was Jeremy Corbyn who had clearly captured the enthusiasm and the support of the party members, winning a large plurality over David Blunkett.

Final Preference:

Leader:
Ken Livingstone: 60,0%
Tony Blair: 40,0%

Leader:
Jeremy Corbyn: 53,6%
David Blunkett: 46,4%

Whislt many expected a close result due to Livingstone's incredible surge in support amongst the Labour grassroots (as opposed to MP's, where Blair had more support), the party had continued to change during the Prescott years and had found electoral success in declining to go down the modernization route, making Blair a candidate too much into the right of the party to be a truly acceptable leader. Despite serious concerns about Livingstone's stances on issues like Northern Ireland (which would play a role in some tragedies to come), Blair found himself defeated once again, almost with the exact margin with which Prescott had beaten him in 1994. Despite faring much better, Blunkett narrowly lost to Corbyn to deputy leader, turning the Labour leadership entirely to the hard-left. Suddenly turned into the Prime Minister, Livingstone attempted to start his tenure on a more conciliatory note, trying to build bridges with the soft-left:

Prime Minister: Ken Livignstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Patricia Hewitt
Home Secretary: Peter Hain
Foreign Secretary: Robin Cook

The following years would be among the most dramatic in British politics.

[Lumine]

The Livingstone Ministry (2002-2005)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Robin Cook, then Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Patricia Hewitt, then John Cryer
Home Secretary: Peter Hain, then Michael Meacher

If many found Prescott's term to be divisive, they had no idea of what was to come. Having taking the party and the country by storm Livingstone began on a fairly conciliatory note, appointing a cabinet with a strong soft-left presence (particularly Cook as Foreign Secretary), taking immediate steps to withdraw British troops from Afghanistan before the next General Election and famously saying "NO" to President McCain when it came to the start of the so called "African Intervention", which would find large success in Sudan by capturing Osama Bin-Laden before entering a quagmire in Nigeria and Somalia. With Ann Widdecombe's leadership beginning to cause much doubt amongst the social-liberal wing of her party, Livingstone spend the last months of 2002 with big plans in office, spearheading a large number of initiatives that culminated in the passing of pro-LGBT and anti-discrimination laws and a national minimum income.

And then it all started to go downhill. The first signs of trouble came from foreign policy, as Clare Short's ceasefire in Northern Ireland restarted the peace process. Livingstone, a committed believer of a united Ireland changed the negotiations dramatically by giving much more influence to the Republican side and entering intensive talks with the IRA, going as far as suggesting to return Northern Ireland to Ireland itself. The result caused not only the DUP, but the UUP and a large part of Ulster to erupt in anger, making the talks collapse in early 2003 and soon seeing renewed hostilities between the IRA and the Ulster Loyalists, which Livingstone withdrawing British troops from Northern Ireland and refusing to send them back. Similar criticism was caused by Livingstone's staunch support for Palestine, calling Israel's creation a "catastrophe" and leading to a breakup of the relationship to Tel-Aviv after a publicized visit to Gaza. Another storm was brought by his huge support for the Euro, leading Livingstone to attempt to join the Euro without a referendum.

Early going bad during late 2003, the government faced a worse crisis still, this time on the economy. Inheriting a steady economy from Prescott the UK went stable for the first few months of Livingstone despite a mass rise in spending, until Livingstone's failed attempt to join the Euro, his bank nationalization scheme (successful in nationalization a couple of banks before stalling) and the mismanagement by Chancellor Patricia Hewitt led to the pound crashing in December 2003, sending Britain straight into recession. Livingstone had to contend with the ongoing crises in Northern Ireland and the economic downturn while seeing his party back to full-scale civil war, as the Modernizers and even parts of the soft left resisted many of his policies, even within the cabinet. Tired of the dissent and encouraged by Deputy Prime Minister Corbyn, Livingstone sacked Robin Cook and almost two fifths of the cabinet on February 2004 to cement the rise of the hard-left, putting Meacher as Home Secretary, Mullin as Foreign Secretary, John Cryer as Chancellor and promoting rising stars like John McDonnell, Diane Abbott and George Galloway.

One area which helped Livingstone was the loss of competence from the Conservatives despite the government's failures. Highly successful against Prescott, Widdecombe's secured leadership enabled her to harder her views and stances on the issues, leading to the resignation of leading social-liberals like John Bercow and Alan Duncan from the frontbench and much division amongst the Conservative Party. Despite Livingstone continuing to score success in the domestic front due to his large majority, promoting substantial reforms to education and particularly to environmental protection, the crisis in Northern Ireland, his fights with other world leaders, the economic crisis and ongoing party instability took its toll during 2004. Believing that the only way to succeed was to fully take control of the party, the Labour hard-left activists began to mobilize to secure the deselection of those MP's more to the right, eliminating at least a dozen and raising up the alarms inside the party. The straw that broke the camel's back, however, was the leaking of a white paper on the replacement of the monarchy.

On August 2004, two years after Livingstone took office, the so called "Gang of Five" of Tony Blair, Oona King, Alan Milburn, Frank Field and Ruth Kelly emerged out of Westminster to announce that they could no longer support Livingstone, and that they would be sitting as Independent Labour MP's (due to the scars of the SDP, they decided against a breakway party). Soon between two and three dozen rebel MP's followed, either by not being able to defend Livingstone's policies anymore or after being deselected by their local parties. Angrily Livingstone and Corbyn demanded the rebels to call by-elections. Oona King accepted the challenge and routed her Labour challenger, ending the calls. With the Labour rebels gaining support in late 2004, Widdecombe saw her moment to act and mounted opposition to the planned nationalization of several more banks, which Livingstone turned into a vote of no confidence. Due to the nature of the crisis, he narrowly lost the vote on December 2004.

It was time for a new general election.

[Lumine]

February 2005 General Election:

February 2005 - Livingstone hangs on

Labour Party: 34.9% (320 MP's)
Conservative Party: 32.6% (225 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 19% (55 MP's)
New Labour: 7.6% (14 MP's)
Others: 6% (32 MP's)

It was one of the most bizarre campaigns seen in British politics, with a result which left all three major parties in an ironic situation of disappointment. Due to the economic crisis and the perceived low popularity of the Livingstone government Widdecombe and the Tories started the campaign in the lead, with Foster and Blair being close to Livingstone in terms of the vote. This lead lasted through the early campaign, with the Lib Dems and New Labour confidently betting on a 100 seats for their parties (despite running against each other on many seats) and the Conservatives dreaming of unseating Livingstone to win a small, but workable majority. That this didn't happen was a subject of much study and scrutiny, for during the other weeks the Labour vote stabilized and even saw a rise to a narrow lead, which was only secured in the last days.

Two main factors appeared to be decisive: one, that the Labour base chose not to abandon Livingstone despite their misgivings about the Prime Minister, giving further relevance to his domestic accomplishments and in the hopes that his reshuffled cabinet could turn things about. And two, the deep divisions in the Opposition. Whatever the dreams of Blair, Foster and Widdecombe, all proved unsuitable to capitalize on the election at the right moment. Blair, while truly successful in electing several New Labour MP's and proving more skilled at that than the old SDP, was not the man to draw a larger still defection from Labour, and took many votes from the center. Foster's dynamism appeared to be increasingly gone, fighting the election in a "one more heave" attitude that was perceived to hurt the Lib Dems in the polls. Widdecombe, despite her passion at the campaign trail, was the target of immense satire and attacks from the media, combined with positions that turned off swing voters and even social-liberal Conservatives.

A stunned nation woke up to see Labour retaining a victory in the popular vote despite a large swing against the government, losing them their majority but leaving a strong minority of 320 seats. The Conservatives, despite making decent gains in terms of MP's actually lost ground in the vote share, a fact which enraged CCHQ and the Parliamentary Party. New Labour lost several of their candidates and MP's (including Ruth Kelly), but more than a dozen MP's survived, including Blair, King, Milburn and Field. The Liberal Democrats, under Foster, woke up to the disappointment of not even breaking 20% and 60 seats, targets that were considered all too possible. Despite a failed attempt at building bridges with the Lib Dems (Livingstone was willing to offer electoral reform, but his party wouldn't hear of it), Labour eventually sailed on as an unstable minority, an early election expected for 2006 and 2007.

Tony Blair remained as head of New Labour as the MP's pondered on whether to actually start a new party, and Don Foster resigned voluntarily after his failure to achieve the breakthrough. The knives also came for Widdecombe, leading to her resignation a few days after the Queen's Speech.

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2005:

Iain Duncan Smith, the Quiet Man

Brought about by the resignation of Ann Widdecombe (following a disappointing performance in the 2005 General Election), leaving the party deeply divided over what course to follow in order to finally achieve victory against Labour. At the time, within the Shadow Cabinet it was widely believed David Davis would be the strongest consensus candidate from the right, become the first candidate to announce. Soon followed (also from the Shadow Cabinet) Theresa May in a modernizing bid, and Iain Duncan Smith as the Thatcherite standard-bearer. And from the backbenchers not only did Malcolm Rifkind attempt a comeback with the support of David Cameron and George Osborne, but Chris Patten himself decided to run after Ken Clarke declined to do so. With five candidates (several potential contenders standing down), the field was set.

First Ballot:

Chris Patten: 85
Iain Duncan Smith: 70
David Davis: 35
Theresa May: 21
Malcolm Rifkind: 14

The campaign for the first ballot was a contentious one, with several candidates making criticisms of the way the Conservative Party was seen and the need to rebrand the party in order to return to government. With May and Rifkind failing to win traction, the most surprising development was the virtual collapse of the Davis campaign, spurred by a poorly ran campaign, lacklustre media performances and an unconvincing platform. As a result, among MP’s the victory belonged to Chris Patten, turned into the electable champion of the left, and Iain Duncan Smith, turned into the ideological Thatcherite champion. With Davis, May and Rifkind out of the running both frontrunners went to the membership ballot, another fight for the soul of the party.

Membership Ballot Results:

Iain Duncan Smith: 55.2%
Chris Patten: 44.8%

To his merit Patten fought hard in order to win, despite the uphill battle of convincing a deeply Eurosceptic party to embrace a more Eurohphile leader. Despite being seen as a poor media performer Iain Duncan Smith was more successful in hitting the right notes for the membership, including an uncompromising stance against Labour which appeared to re-energize the party. And sure enough, as the votes were counted IDS could count on a convincing win against his foe. The Conservative Party had chosen ideological purity against perceived electability, and the next General Election was increasingly seen as a “must win”. With several prominent Europhiles led by Patten and Clarke deciding to remain on the backbenchers, IDS assembled his shadow cabinet:

Conservative Leader: Iain Duncan Smith
Deputy Leader: William Hague
Shadow Chancellor: David Wiletts
Shadow Home Secretary: Tim Collins
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Malcolm Rifkind

Could the Quiet Man succeed where Redwood and Widdecombe had failed?

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 2005:

Can Simon Hughes achieve the Lib Dem breakthrough?

First Round:

Simon Hughes: 40.0%
David Laws: 33.3%
Charles Kennedy: 26.7%

Last Round:

Simon Hughes: 50.1%
David Laws: 49.9%

Deputy Leader Election:

Menzies Campbell: 62.1%
Vince Cable: 37.9%

Despite some calls for him to stay, Don Foster tendered his resignation as Leader of the Liberal Democrats following a failure to capitalize on the 2005 General Election, ending a successful tenure of eight years leading the party. One of the main issues for the election was the open call by Tony Blair to form a "progressive alliance" of sorts so both parties fought the next election together. The call, supported by Foster, became an issue as relevant as where to take the party next. With Menzies Campbell and Vince Cable running for Deputy Leader, the leadership battle was fought between Charles Kennedy, Simon Hughes and David Laws. Despite Kennedy having the support of Foster his campaign fell behind amidst rumours of a drinking problem, allowing Laws and Hughes to reach the end of the contest as Campbell won a resounding victory in the Deputy Leadership battle.

The rounds between Hughes and Laws, however, turned bitter soon. Laws drew fire on Hughes's opposition to same sex marriage and his excessive closeness to Labour on many issues, whereas Hughes attacked Laws as a "closet Tory" and questioned his support for an alliance with Tony Blair. In the end, it was Hughes's percieved likeability and closeness to the voters combined with his left-wing pitch that won over the membership, fighting a close battle in which he edged Laws by the narrowest of margins. Despite belief that a recount should have been held Laws refrained from doing so, conceding to Hughes so the party would heal rapidly from the contest to fight the next general election.

[Lumine]

The Livingstone II Ministry (2005-2006)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Cryer
Home Secretary: Michael Meacher

Having survived the election, Ken Livingstone was now leading a minority government. To his credit, despite speculations on an election as early as October 2005 Livingstone survived all the way to February, before losing another vote of no confidence.

Despite the opposition of New Labour and the Lib Dems to several of his policies, the major area of success for Livingstone during this brief parliament was domestic policy, as there was still enough consensus within the parties of the left and the center-left to continue passing some accomplishments on domestic policy that redoubled environmental reforms, further NHS expansion and a large-scale transport plan for London and several key UK cities which resulted in a reasonable starting success. The economy, however, continued to go downhill with John Cryer's 2005 Budget failing to stop the recession with large spending increases. Indeed, by the start of 2006 some have begun to talk of a "depression" (particularly as the US economy has also crashed under President Howard Dean's watch), as unemployment begins to grow out of control.

In foreign policy the Northern Ireland situation continues to grab headlines, as unionist and republican groups openly attack each other across Ulster and dozens of minor terror attacks take place across the country, leading to a growing surge for the radicalized DUP across the land. Despite this crisis, Livingstone's main focus for the year was his risky European gamble, calling on a referendum on the Euro and the European Constitution while defying the Eurosceptics on his party. To his merit, Livingstone got the European Constitution approved (which would be accepted by the entire EU by 2006), but faced a resounding defeat on his promotion of the Euro as the solution to the UK economic woes. Livingstone's image polarization continued, being deeply unpopular on several regions but still widely supported in others.

Right after the September referendum (which had pushed an early election a few months in the future) came the decisive time, as Labour began to gear for a leadership challenge against the Prime Minister. Despite Livingstone bracing for a contest, it amounted to nothing after the unexpected death of the strongest available challenge, former Foreign Secretary Robin Cook. As a result, Livingstone had to face yet another split in the Labour Party as the Eurosceptic left revolted: As UKIP and the Eurosceptic parties faced imminent collapse former Labour MP Robert Kilroy-Silk founded New Deal, a new Eurosceptic party of the left which won the defection of Labour MP Gisela Stuart and New Labour MP Frank Field.

In the end, what brought Livingstone down this time around was his decision to push through a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should return to Ireland, parliamentary vote which he turned into a vote of no confidence to reassert his leadership. IDS, Blair, Hughes and Kilroy-Silk all called his bluff and defeated him by two votes on January 2006. A new General Election was scheduled in March.

[Lumine]

March 2006 General Election:

March 2006 - Kilroy-Silk, man of the hour

Labour Party: 30% (292 MP's)
Conservative Party: 28% (246 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (43 MP's)
New Labour: 11.5% (36 MP's)
New Deal: 11.5% (6 MP's)
Others: 5% (27 MP's)

The campaign began amidst a sense of uncertainty, with the Conservatives and the Lib Dems under new leadership and the polls constantly predicting a hung parliament, a complicated outcome to have due to the hostility amongst New Labour and many Lib Dems towards both Iain Duncan Smith and Ken Livingstone. Despite the desire for change in a large part of the electorate, the Conservative campaign soon became infamous not only for its poor propaganda (due to IDS's placing key but less competent allies in CCHQ), but for the total lack of charisma by their own leader, which hampered the entire operation to defeat Livingstone. But while some expected the Lib Dems to capitalize on the weakness of the Conservatives it soon became clear Simon Hughes was not the man for the task. Despite a strong start, Hughes's efforts became unraveled as newspapers leaked the fact that he had had homosexual experiences in the past, bringing questions to his opposition to gay marriage.

As the campaign went for the first few days and Hughes and IDS faced hostile scrutiny some predictions turned towards Labour making a few gains off the Conservatives and securing a small but workable majority. Then Robert Kilroy-Silk made his mark. It was the first time a leader's debate was to be held in the UK, and after much speculation Livingstone, IDS, Hughes, Blair and Kilroy-Silk managed to agree to have a five-way debate. It was to become known for Blair's well managed and well-recieved appearance (giving extra life to New Labour), for Livingstone's famous cornering of Hughes's on gay marriage, and more importantly, for the live and complete evisceration of Iain Duncan Smith by Kilroy-Silk, who went after him with all guns blazing and left the Conservative leader unable to respond to fierce criticism about his character and his policies.

The effect on the polls was explosive. Kilroy-Silk was the man of the hour as New Deal began to  rise, easily hitting 20% in the national polls despite the fact that his party had no candidates in most of the country. The collapse of the Conservative campaign led many to fear a wipeout, and with IDS ineffective as ever it took a collective effort from popular figures like Patten and Clarke to take over the campaign and renew their attacks into Livingstone and Kilroy-Silk. In the end, with economic conditions failing to improve as unemployment rose all the way to election night, the nation woke up to an even more Hung Parliament. Labour and the Conservatives alike had lost 4%, meaning that Labour, once again the victor, stood at 292 MP's with just over 30% of the vote, almost thirty seats away from a majority. The Conservatives won some twenty extra MP's on ridiculously margins, spared only by the divisions across the board. Hughes and Kilroy Silk faced disappointment at their own respective performances, Hughes dragging his party back to 2000 levels as Kilroy-Silk only returned 6 MP's despite winning more than 10% of the vote overall. The one winner of the election was, ironically, Tony Blair, by claiming the ideological center and massively expanding to almost 36 MP's, close to the Lib Dems.

With only a Labour government being remotely feasible, Livingstone sent for Hughes and began to discuss the possibility of a coalition government, making significant progress before finding trouble again on electoral reform. Even if Livingstone and many of his allies believed in voting reform, a large part, if not the majority of the party opposed it, making it impossible to sail through parliament. Hughes, on the other hand, had to contend with the right of his party informing him that he would face a leadership challenge, making a coalition unsustainable. A couple of days before a vote of no confidence ousted Iain Duncan Smith as Conservative Leader and Nick Clegg challenged Hughes for the Lib Dem leadership, Labour and the Lib Dems signed onto a basic Supply and Confidence arrangement, allowing Livingstone to pass a Queen's Speech and a Budget before facing the country again by the end of the year.

Many wondered whether the political crisis was ever to end.

[Lumine]

Lib Dem Leadership Election, 2006:

To the shock of Westminster, Clegg unseats Hughes

Only Round:

Nick Clegg: 57.6%
Simon Hughes: 42.4%

After a lacklustre performance in the latest general election, and having drawn negative attention to himself for his seemingly contradictory stance on gay marriage, Simon Hughes was weakened as leader. It was widely believed he'd have to face criticism from his party and calls to change his course. What people didn't quite expect was a leadership challenge, launched by some party factions once it became clear Hughes was determined to expand his much vaunted "Supply and Confidence" deal into a future coalition with Livingstone. With Laws refusing to stand it was the little known, inexperienced MP Nick Clegg who challenged Hughes, many expecting he'd force the embattled leader into further policy concessions.

Yet to the shock of many Clegg proved a superb contender in the leadership race. Doing well in the leadership debates, scoring the right notes with many in the center and even the center-left of the party and putting forward the merits of returning to the center-left towards a different course convinced many members worried about further losses in the next election. By the time the election itself was held Clegg had reason to expect a strong performance, but what most of the press and Westminster never envisioned came through. Clegg unseated Hughes outright, with a strong majority behind him. Under new leadership the Liberal Democrats would suddenly take the fight to Livingstone with determination, culminating in the historic joint speech by Nick Clegg and Tony Blair which created a new alliance of the center-left.

[Lumine]

Conservative Leadership Election, 2006:

Chris Patten, revenge of the Tory Left

Iain Duncan Smith led the Tories for only a year, and was widely considered one of the worst leaders the party had up to that point. Despite a situation that should have been favorable, his lack of charisma had allowed the New Deal party to explore out of control to capture many Tory voters despite its leftist platform, and he had made a fool of himself by allowing his party's poll ratings to collapse into an unprecedented 28% (which led to an ironic increase in seats due to the division of the party system). While IDS believed it was only natural he'd be allowed to stay as leader until the next general election expected for that year, his critics had had enough, and promtly forced his resignation. After some soul searching Patten decided to stand again for the leadership with the added support of the modernizers, and with the Thatcherite right out of steam after three General Election defeats it was the more moderate William Hague who rose as the challenger from the Shadow Cabinet.

Only Ballot:

Chris Patten: 151
William Hague: 95

It was a brief contest leading for the first ballot of MP's, and a remarkably civil one as Hague and Patten offered different perspectives on modernization: one more conservative and aiming for unity, the other with the ambition to seize the political center. Whilst many agreed that  had it been a contest with an open period of opposition ahead with a larger field Patten would not have made it through, the sense of despair the party was in proved enough. Hague achieved a respectable result in the first round of MP's, but Patten had garnered almost two-thirds. Hague was entitled to a second round in the membership, but stating that he could not attempt to lead the party after Patten's victory, he conceded. Patten, having secured his once unexpected comeback, retained Hague and entrusted him with leading the campaign, demoting Tim Collins and David Wiletts (too associated with the IDS campaign) to promote young David Cameron and no other than Ken Clarke, who returned to the frontbench for the first time since 1996.

Conservative Leader: Chris Patten
Deputy Leader/Party Chairman: William Hague
Shadow Chancellor: Ken Clarke
Shadow Home Secretary: David Cameron
Shadow Foreign Secretary: Malcolm Rifkind

And yet, would the Conservatives survive to the danger of New Deal organizing itself for a nationwide campaign?

[Lumine]

The Livingstone III Ministry (2006)

Prime Minister: Ken Livingstone
Deputy Prime Minister: Jeremy Corbyn
Foreign Secretary: Chris Mullin
Chancellor of the Exchequer: John Cryer
Home Secretary: Michael Meacher

British politics were as divided as ever as two-party politics had suddenly turned into five-party politics. And yet, despite continuing to bleed votes Ken Livingstone sailed to another partial victory in April by winning a minority, which he turned into another government by securing a Supply and Confident deal with Simon Hughes and the Liberal Democrats (which many expected could turn into an actual Coalition before long).

Having bet on Iain Duncan Smith leading the Tories to further disaster in December and Hughes propping up Labour, Downing Street was shocked by the quick succession of events in May and June, Tory and Lib Dem revolts knifing not only IDS but Hughes himself and installing Chris Patten and Nick Clegg as their respective leaders. Suddenly both parties had turned into the centre, and with Clegg being an avowed critic of Livingstone’s hard left policies the Supply and Confidence deal entered into crisis barely two months after the election. As a result and all the way into December Blair, Clegg and Patten led an effective opposition, with Labour standing him as the backbenchers decided to support their Prime Minister against the onslaught (Livingstone found an unlikely ally on many votes on Kilroy-Silk, now an MP).

With most government proposals stalling, facing defeat or gridlock, Livingstone was unable to pass even his domestic agenda, which he had at least been able to do during 2005. Only a second referendum on Welsh devolution was approved, Prime Minister Livingstone relived to see it pass (if by a small margin). Foreign policy continued to be a hot issue on account of Northern Ireland related violence as 2006 turned into one of the most violent years, a DUP and a Sinn Fein MP being killed on separate terrorist bombings. The closest thing to a success was, ironically, to be found on the economic front, as Chancellor Cryer’s ongoing stimulus spending managed to halt the rise in unemployment, allowing it to stabilize in its current high levels through the year. Despite avoiding scandals or mishaps due to a tighter ship being run in Downing Street (enforced by several allies of the Prime Minister led by John McDonnell), Livingstone’s standing on the opinion polls was perceived to be going down as voters saw little end to the crisis.

While the minority of the Labour government became harder to sustain after Clegg reneged from the supply and confidence arrangement, neither Patten nor Clegg felt ready for an early election in September. In the end, Patten called a vote of no confidence in October, and the Conservatives, New Labour, the Lib Dems and New Deal brought down the Labour government again. A second election (the third in two years) was to be held in December 2006, polls predicting another hung parliament to come.