Which potential candidates have a “Rand Paul problem”?

[Mr. Morden]

I asked this in another thread, but no one answered, so I’ll give it its own thread.  Rand Paul faced a problem in 2016, in that he wanted to simultaneously run for president and reelection for his Senate seat, and it was impossible under Kentucky law to run for both at the same time, even in just the primary.  So he pressured the state Republican party to opt out of the primary and go with a caucus instead.

Most of the prospective 2020 candidates are either out of office or up in 2018 rather than 2020.  So this isn’t an issue for them.  There are a few exceptions though.  E.g., Booker’s seat is up in 2020, though the New Jersey primary comes so late (and with a filing deadline that doesn’t come until April) that he can “pull a Rubio” and run for president at least through the March primaries, then if he’s not going to win the nomination, pull out of the presidential race and run for reelection for his Senate seat.

What about Al Franken?  I know he’s already ruled out a presidential run, but let’s say he changes his mind.  Under the old system in Minnesota, there’d be no problem, because the state allocated presidential delegates via caucus rather than primary.  But they’re switching to a primary in 2020.  Is it a combined presidential + congressional primary?  Can a candidate have his name listed for two offices?

And then what about those in the House of Reps, like Amash and Gabbard?  Do either Hawaii or Michigan make it difficult to run for Congress and president in the same year?

[Mr. Morden]

Regarding Amash and Gabbard….I guess Hawaii does presidential caucuses, rather than a primary, so there’s no conflict for Gabbard.  The primary for her House seat would come in August 2020, but I don’t know what the filing deadline is.

For Amash, Michigan has a March presidential primary, but the primary for congressional elections is separate, taking place in August.  Filing deadline for that is in April.  If Amash is going to end up running a quixotic primary challenge against Trump, then I guess he’d have until then to decide if he also wants to also hang on to his House seat.  Not sure if being on the ballot in the presidential primary in March complicates any decision to also be on the ballot months later for the House.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_requirements_for_political_candidates_in_Michigan

[LLR]

Ben Sasse is one of the more likely GOP senators to challenge Trump, and he's up...

Booker, Merkley, and maybe Udall on the Dem side - though, again, all those states have very late primaries. And no sitting representative will make a successful challenge for the presidency.

[houseonaboat]

Booker's never been super popular with the state party and there's a deep Democratic bench in the state eyeing that seat (Norcross, Fulop, maybe even Baraka). If he decides he wants his Senate seat back in like March, he's going to have a tough time winning that primary, incumbency or not.

[Mr. Morden]

Longshot, but I also wonder if Lindsey Graham might try running again if no one else is going to challenge Trump.  His seat is up in 2020 as well, though that's a case where I think if he runs for president, that means he's going to give up on the Senate seat.  South Carolina of course has an early presidential primary with a separate primary for other offices in June (late March filing deadline for that one).  Even longer shot to run for president in 2020: Mark Sanford, with the same situation as Graham.

[Mr. Morden]

The Portland Tribune says that Merkley can’t legally run for both president and Senate at the same time (he’s up in 2020):

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/9-news/350992-230088-sources-trump-spurs-democratic-fundraising

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Of course, Merkley is in a Booker-like situation, in that, like New Jersey, Oregon has a relatively late presidential primary (May).  And the filing deadline is in early March:

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_requirements_for_political_candidates_in_Oregon

So like Booker, if Merkley wanted to run for president, he could at least stay in the race through Super Tuesday before making a judgment call about whether to continue on, or drop out and run for Senate again.